Raymond is a turnover machine and a Puckhog. Multiple times where he selfishly went in trying to shoot a puck on net when he could have passed it to a player in a better position. I would rather see any farm player rather than this guy.
I agree, been saying this for a while. He has no place on this team. First step is to scratch him and see if that gives him a good kick. Too many plays die on his stick.
That's one of those stats that really isn't that flattering. Don't get me wrong, it's incredible the heart and soul he shows by getting in front of all those shots, but it also means the opposition has the puck an awful lot and is shooting at your net
You brought up some good points there, but part of the problem, IMHO, is also the size of our top 4:
6'0, 200 - 6'1, 185
5'10, 175 - 6'0, 200
Although they put up terrific numbers (so far) I'm not sure whether that setup works well in the long run (particularly in the West).
That being said, Gio is beyond awesome and has played much bigger game than his 6 feet recently, but we still seem to have the smallest and least defensive top 4 in the league.
I wouldn't be opposed to swap one of Wideman/Russell for a good sized and more defensive oriented dman - the question is where to get him.
Wait until Wotherspoon is ready?
Hope that Smid improves his overall game to fill that spot?
Go for a trade ? Guys in the right age group like McDonagh, are going to be expensive (if available at all)
The thing that I don't like about our group of defensive prospects is the fact that Spooner is realistically the only big physical 2-way dman with top-4 ceiling. With all respect to Kanzig and Sieloff they will be rather battling for Engelland's spot in 1-2 years and that's it.
Regardless of how much Pelech and Eriksson sucked, I hope that Treliving tries to address that issue in the draft, preferably in the 1st round.
That's one of those stats that really isn't that flattering. Don't get me wrong, it's incredible the heart and soul he shows by getting in front of all those shots, but it also means the opposition has the puck an awful lot and is shooting at your net
I get the possession aspect of blocks, but it drives me nuts that possession folks are trying to categorize blocks as a "negative" stat. Yes, having the puck would be preferable. But blocking a shot is sure as hell preferable to letting shots get to the net.
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Haven't had time to read the thread but one of the best players of the night for me was Monahan. Showed off his speed in the second a few times, notably on that 2 on 1 when he really pulled away from the LA defenders. Then again on the final minute when he channeled his inner Towes and cleared the puck a couple times when it was 6 on 5.
It really was a thing of beauty.
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The thing that I don't like about our group of defensive prospects is the fact that Spooner is realistically the only big physical 2-way dman with top-4 ceiling. With all respect to Kanzig and Sieloff they will be rather battling for Engelland's spot in 1-2 years and that's it.
.
Rafikov?
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That's one of those stats that really isn't that flattering. Don't get me wrong, it's incredible the heart and soul he shows by getting in front of all those shots, but it also means the opposition has the puck an awful lot and is shooting at your net
It doesn't necessarily say that at all.
Both teams are going to get shots. And give or take 5%, both teams are going to take about the same number of shots.
Collapsing to the middle and blocking shots has become a defensive strategy in this league. Forcing the other team to the outside, and blocking many of the perimeter shots is an effective way to play defense.
You could argue that this type of strategy results in more time spent in the defensive zone, but I am not sure that's the case. Are the Flames a bad possession team because of the way they play defense, or because they can't keep the puck in the offensive zone for very long? I would probably argue the latter.
Regardless, the point is that both teams get possession time and unless someone can show that players who block shots have poor relative possession numbers, I see no reason to think that a shot blocker is spending more time in their own zone than a non shot blocker.
A quick check at Puckalytics.com suggests that Russel has a 5v5 CF%RelTM of 1.1 (6.3 adjusting to 5v5 Close.) Adjusting for zone starts, it becomes 0.0 (or 2.2. adjusting to 5v5 Close.)
Last edited by Finger Cookin; 12-30-2014 at 07:26 AM.
Puck possession is second to the amount of decent scoring chances we give away. 15 minutes with the puck and 30 shots from the perimeter is preferable to 1 minute with the puck and 5 shots in the slot.
It's easy to take a stat and say that it means this and that but each individual shot and moment of possession has context that when amalgamated does not represent the events that actually took place.
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I agree, been saying this for a while. He has no place on this team. First step is to scratch him and see if that gives him a good kick. Too many plays die on his stick.
I mentioned it to my buddy while watching the game. Raymond is starting to remind me of Blake Comeau. Rush up the wing, lose the puck, rinse, repeat.
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I’m always amazed these sportscasters and announcers can call the game with McDavid’s **** in their mouths all the time.
A quick check at Puckalytics.com suggests that Russel has a 5v5 CF%RelTM of 1.1 (6.3 adjusting to 5v5 Close.) Adjusting for zone starts, it becomes 0.0 (or 2.2. adjusting to 5v5 Close.)
I literally have no idea what all of that means, and I consider myself an intelligent person.
I'm not anti-data, but advanced stats still seem to obscure the issue rather than illuminate it.
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Wil Wheaton @wilw 3h3 hours ago
My god, the Flames are just destroying the Kings. Gaudreau reminds me of Gretzky in Edmonton. Sick.
Wil Wheaton @wilw 3h3 hours ago
Angry Oilers fans are angry.
Loubardias and Wills were talking about the exact same thing in the pre-geme last night. They haven't seen a guy with the kind of vision Gaudreau has since Gretzky.
Speaking of angry Oilers fans, an update on how butthurt they were when TSN predicted both RNH and JH would score 55 points this year:
Gaudreau: 37GP 12-18--30 82-game pace of 66pts
Nugent-Hopkins: 34GP 10-13-23 82-game pace of 55pts.
Looks like we were the ones who should have been angry...
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Something to keep an eye on: I thought Stoll got to Gaudreau. Stoll played him hard, lots of stick work and body, and it had Johnny hearing footsteps come the third. Gaudreau's awful late turnover in the high slot was the result of him fearing a check IMO. I would really like to see the Flames protect Johnny better. Stoll needed to be confronted.
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I literally have no idea what all of that means, and I consider myself an intelligent person.
I'm not anti-data, but advanced stats still seem to obscure the issue rather than illuminate it.
It's like learning a new language, for sure. I find this link helpful. Long-winded explanations are behind the spoiler tag.
Spoiler!
A CF% measures a players Corsi For (Shots For + Shot Attempts For + Defending Team Blocks) vs. Corsi Against (Shots Against + Shots Against + Blocks). A percentage over 50% for CF% suggests that the team or player has possesion of the puck more than not.
To get that CF% number compared to the team (RelTM), you calculate the team's CF% (weight the individuals CF% by Time on Ice together then average it), and you subtract it from the player's CF%. A positive CF%RelTm suggests an individual player contributes positively to his team's puck possesion.
The stats above, and most other analytic stats, are compiled based on situations. Most views focus on straight 5 on 5 play, but you can break that down for differences in road vs home games, leading and trailing, or "close" situations. My understanding of close is that it is a situation where the score is tied or within 1 goal in the first or second periods, and tied in the third period. The idea of analyzing these stats based on situation is that the style of play for a team varies based on the score. Teams with a lead tend to focus on shutting things down and end up shooting less, or teams trailing tend to take more chances and take more shots, for example.
Lastly, with regards to Zone Starts, the blurb in the glossary I linked to suggests that "Zone Start Adjusted statistics remove the 10 seconds immediately after a zone face off. It has been shown that the majority of the benefit or penalty of a zone start occurs during the first 10 seconds." So the adjusted stats remove events from the 10 seconds after a faceoff.
So the numbers I referenced suggest that, despite blocking so many shots, Russell contributes positively to the Flames puck possession in 5 on 5 situations, and especially does so when the score is close.
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Something to keep an eye on: I thought Stoll got to Gaudreau. Stoll played him hard, lots of stick work and body, and it had Johnny hearing footsteps come the third. Gaudreau's awful late turnover in the high slot was the result of him fearing a check IMO. I would really like to see the Flames protect Johnny better. Stoll needed to be confronted.
He's going to have to deal with that stuff. He still drew a penalty and had a great assist. The turnover was bad and likely the result of the Kings being all over him, but they aren't going to stop doing it if Bollig goes and talks with Stoll.
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It's kind of similar to the Canadians and the bruins the last few seasons... The bruins are dominant against everyone else and should be dominant against the Canadians on paper but for some reason, Montreal seems to have their number and beats them fairly consistently. That's how it feels with the flames against the kings. We're their cryptonite.
We were also the bane of the Wings' existence when they were world beaters.
