As for your add on, thats the risk of the draft. For every Zherdev there is a Daigle. not much of an argument there.
If you're saying the % of Canadians taken top 15 in the last 15 years who've busted is the same as the % of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years you'd be wrong.
Here's a list of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years:
1998: 5th Vishnevsky (bust compared to draft position)
1999: 11th Saprykin (bust, drafted out of CHL), 12th Shvidky (bust, drafted out of CHL)
2000: 8th Alexeev (bust), 10th Yakubov (bust), 11th Vorobiev (bust), 12th Smirnov (bust), 15th Kryukov (bust)
2001: 1st Kovalchuk (superstar), 3rd Svitov (bust), 5th Chistov (bust), 15th Knyazev (bust)
2002: 13th Semin (star)
2003: 4th Zherdev (bust), 10th Kostitsyn (Belarussian, turned out okay but much better players taken later and has since abandoned the NHL)
2004: 1st Ovechkin (superstar), 2nd Malkin (superstar), 15th Radulov (turned out good but has since abandoned the NHL)
2008: 6th Filatov (bust)
2009: 14th Kulikov (drafted out of the CHL, turned out)
2010: 8th Burmistrov (drafted out of the CHL, looks okay but not spectacular so far)
2011: 1st Yakupov (drafted out of the CHL, looks good so far), 3rd Galchenyuk (American/Russian drafted out of the CHL, looks good so far), 12th Grigorenko (drafted out of the CHL, looks good so far)
24 players total
13 busts
3 superstars (all taken top two)
54% bust rate for Russian top 15 picks in the last 15 years.
If you include Kostitsyn and Radulov as busts since they abandoned the NHL then its 62.5%
I'm not going to compute the Canadian numbers but I can't imagine the bust rate being that high.
This is why I'm always skeptical of Russian picks. Maybe some of you are too young to remember the sheer number of Russian busts from '99-2001. Lately the only Russians that seem to go high are the ones who come over to the CHL in or before their draft year which as I said helps to ease the tough cultural/language transition and shows NHL teams that the player prioritizes the NHL.
Supposedly we had Galchenyuk rated #1 last year.
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Regardless of the Russian Factor, the Bust Factor or the Curse of the Flames Drafting Factor, Nichushkin looks like an absolute beast. Judging by any clips I've seen I see a very unique prospect that would transition well to the NHL. If he was keen to come over I'm sure some sort of payoff would entice his KHL team to let him leave.
I could certainly see him, Barkov & Ristolainen transitioning very successfully to the NHL immediately. Let's face it: we need help ASAP.
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Ahead of Yakupov? Not sure I could agree with that despite the fact I can't stand Yakupov.
There was the argument that Yakupov was made to look even better by Galchenyuk's play. When Galchenyuk was injured Yakupov's numbers dropped off slightly, and I remember reading that had Galchenyuk not been injured so severely he would have definitely been in contention for the 1st overall pick. He also would have filled our major, long-standing organisational need.
If you're saying the % of Canadians taken top 15 in the last 15 years who've busted is the same as the % of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years you'd be wrong.
Here's a list of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years:
...
24 players total
13 busts
3 superstars (all taken top two)
54% bust rate for Russian top 15 picks in the last 15 years.
If you include Kostitsyn and Radulov as busts since they abandoned the NHL then its 62.5%
I'm not going to compute the Canadian numbers but I can't imagine the bust rate being that high.
Maybe not quite, but it's not as far off as you might think. I just did the first 5 of the drafts you listed (1998-2002) and got 33 Canadian players chosen in the top 15 with 13 of them I'd call busts and another 3 that are pretty borderline (is Raffi Torres at #5 overall a bust?).
Full list in spoiler tags for length
Spoiler!
1998
Lecavalier,
Legwand,
Brad Stuart,
Bryan Allen (?),
Fata (!),
Malholtra (?),
Mark Bell (!),
Jeff Heerema (!),
Tanguay,
Michael Henrich (!),
Patrick DesRochers (!)
Mathieu Chouinard (!)
12 chosen, 6 busts, 2 questionable
1999
Brian Finley (!)
Kris Beech (!)
Taylor Pyatt
Jamie Lundmark (!)
Scott Kelman (!)
5 chosen, 4 busts
2000
Heatley* (born in Germany)
Torres (?)
Hartnell
Krahn (!)
I'm no expert by Nichushkin looks like a much better prospect than Barkov.
He looks way more impressive and dynamic but people have said that Bakrov's highlights don't show him justice seeing as they are mostly him sniping home goals and shows his sluggish skating rather than his playmaking ability and his two way play that he is reported to having. If both Nichushkin and Bakrov are on the board when the Flames pick they better pick Bakrov. The only time i would want us to take Nichushkin is if the best center's available are gone. But at this point i'm expecting anything to happen of draft day and i wouldn't be to upset or shocked if Nichushkin was a Flame. The only way i would be upset if we took him and Mackinnon, Lindholm or Bakrov were still on the board.
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Last edited by Hockey_Ninja; 04-19-2013 at 04:24 PM.
Dream scenario, Flames walk away with both Barkov and Nichushkin. This debate over the draft with have a far clearer picture after lotto day. Then I suspect CP will be going nuts with speculation and wishes.
I'm no expert by Nichushkin looks like a much better prospect than Barkov.
I see Nichushkin and I drool at his size, skill and speed. Honestly it looks like someone took Malkin's body & gave him an extra dose of rookie Ovechkin's skill... But that's just based on limited viewings and clips.
Barkov, on paper, has extremely good stats in the top Finnish league. Considering both he and Nichushkin play in men's top professional leagues, I think it's valid to compare the stats line:
Barkov is 6 months younger and putting up exceptional numbers in a similar league. I can't remember the last time I heard of a draft eligible player putting up those kinds of numbers in a pro league.
They both have size & top end skill. Barkov's hands get compared to Datsyuk.
I think Barkov is the better pick for many reasons, but also based on the certainty that he is NHL ready and could come straight over, pending either finishing or deferring his military service.
Isn't the KHL quite a bit better than the Finnish league. I have no idea but that is what I always assumed.
KHL is the best league in Europe, obviously. Doesn't take anything away from Barkov's achievement though. He's so well rounded that he could have easily played a full season in the KHL as well but we'll never know what his stats would have looked like.
Draft age prospects never have great stats in the KHL. It's not just that the league is better but they don't seem to be given as much responsibility. Comparing KHL stats with players who have bigger roles on their teams is not fair.
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The fears and concerns over taking Russian players - it seems like this could be a high risk pick such that teams that feel there is still a potential superstar available will opt for the safer route.
Cheraponov was ranked first overall by some outlets and dropped way down. This seems kind of similar.
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The fears and concerns over taking Russian players - it seems like this could be a high risk pick such that teams that feel there is still a potential superstar available will opt for the safer route.
Cheraponov was ranked first overall by some outlets and dropped way down. This seems kind of similar.
Understood, and I guess it's possible. However, most of the draft rankings are already taking the "Russia factor" into account when ranking him between 5-9.
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If he was keen to come over I'm sure some sort of payoff would entice his KHL team to let him leave.
.
I don't think the KHL could stop him. There is no official transfer agreement and I have heard the contract law in Russia technically allows either party to cancel a contract with enough advanced notice (I can't confirm this though).
The NHL and KHL have a handshake agreement though where they agreed not to sign players from each other's teams. The KHL hasn't strictly followed it (recall Radulov), but I'm still not sure if the NHL would want to push their button over it.
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Sure seems like Nichushkin is going to fall a lot, perhaps to 10-15 or even 15-20 range.
I'd gladly take him with our Blues 1st rounder if he was still on the board. We could very well end up with both players and be able to offer them ice time rigt away.
Baertschi - Barkov - Nichushkin
That line on paper looks to have a lot of young high end skill, can't wait for draft day.
I would take him over Monohan (who i've seen a ton). Monohan is not going to be an elite guy. Neither is Schiefele (for the poster who mentioned him), Strome is impossible to judge since he plays all his OHL home games on a tiny ice surface... watching him there you wouldn't think star talent but there's no room for anything on that size ice so its impossible to tell (and yes he gets a ton of points).
Big centres are a wanted commodity (regarding Monohan/Schiefele), but you have to watch out that you don't overdraft a guy because he fits those attributes... Similar situation to giant defenseman (just because a guy is tall doesn't mean he's the next Chara).
If you're saying the % of Canadians taken top 15 in the last 15 years who've busted is the same as the % of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years you'd be wrong.
Here's a list of Russians taken top 15 in the last 15 years:
1998: 5th Vishnevsky (bust compared to draft position)
1999: 11th Saprykin (bust, drafted out of CHL), 12th Shvidky (bust, drafted out of CHL)
2000: 8th Alexeev (bust), 10th Yakubov (bust), 11th Vorobiev (bust), 12th Smirnov (bust), 15th Kryukov (bust)
2001: 1st Kovalchuk (superstar), 3rd Svitov (bust), 5th Chistov (bust), 15th Knyazev (bust)
2002: 13th Semin (star)
2003: 4th Zherdev (bust), 10th Kostitsyn (Belarussian, turned out okay but much better players taken later and has since abandoned the NHL)
2004: 1st Ovechkin (superstar), 2nd Malkin (superstar), 15th Radulov (turned out good but has since abandoned the NHL)
2008: 6th Filatov (bust)
2009: 14th Kulikov (drafted out of the CHL, turned out)
2010: 8th Burmistrov (drafted out of the CHL, looks okay but not spectacular so far)
2011: 1st Yakupov (drafted out of the CHL, looks good so far), 3rd Galchenyuk (American/Russian drafted out of the CHL, looks good so far), 12th Grigorenko (drafted out of the CHL, looks good so far)
24 players total
13 busts
3 superstars (all taken top two)
54% bust rate for Russian top 15 picks in the last 15 years.
If you include Kostitsyn and Radulov as busts since they abandoned the NHL then its 62.5%
I'm not going to compute the Canadian numbers but I can't imagine the bust rate being that high.
This is why I'm always skeptical of Russian picks. Maybe some of you are too young to remember the sheer number of Russian busts from '99-2001. Lately the only Russians that seem to go high are the ones who come over to the CHL in or before their draft year which as I said helps to ease the tough cultural/language transition and shows NHL teams that the player prioritizes the NHL.
Supposedly we had Galchenyuk rated #1 last year.
Disagree with this logic. Its similar to the don't draft defensiveman high logic. You need to take these factors into account and adjust your grading system to account for it, but if a guy grades out highly even after those adjustments you take him.
Just blocking out a group of guys because players in the past from his country or position have busted out doesn't make sense to me.
If you look at last year's NFL draft, Russell Wilson fell to the 3rd round because teams decide that guys under 6' can't play QB in the NFL.
I think there is too much emphasis on "The Russian Factor". Sure, you mitigate it somewhat by drafting other players, but at some point you take him because he will be the best selection on board.
I really do think he has top 3 potential. If I was a GM, I wouldn't chance it, however. Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin and perhaps even Barkov would be 'safer' picks who all have very high upsides. Though Nichuskin COULD be better than anyone else in the draft, the risk does make him drop a bit in my eyes.
HOWEVER - every scout that sees him play seems very high on him and often label him as something special. He has the size (bigger than Barkov), he can play any forward position, and he looks to be an absolute beast out there.
2 years is really 'nothing' to a rebuilding team. It should really be nothing to most teams, to be honest. Let him get his craft down a bit. When he is ready to come over, he will more likely be an impact player.
I would be disappointed if the Flames drafted 5 and lower, and passed on him if he was available (and MacKinnon, Drouin and Barkov were off the board already). Flames need to draft the best possible players at any position really - Franchise players are what has been lacking on this team - not just centers. Who knows - perhaps he would make one killer center in the league as time goes by. I read he can play any forward position, so he may be playing wing as part of his adjustment (just like Jankowski did).
Flames will be conducting their interviews. I would expect them to pass on him if they end up feeling he isn't going to be a wise pick. If he is coming over, I would expect the Flames to pick him.
There have been lots of Russians that COULD have had big pay days in Russia, but came to the NHL instead. Not everyone is a Radulov. There are Datsyuks, Ovenchkins and Malkins too. They could all be making MORE money in Russia (especially when you figure in taxes). His interviews will dictate how much he drops. I really doubt the Flames would pass on him if he was available by the time they are looking to be drafting, and I will be extremely happy if they do.
Also, not that it matters too much, but Aliu speaks fluent Russian I believe. Babchuk does as well, but most likely will not be retained.
