Valeri Nichushkin Discussion

[saillias]

Edit: n/m Covered before me by FLames Draft Watcher

[Erick Estrada]

This kid will be a great pick for a team like the Flyers that have nothing to lose by taking the risk although they really should be looking at a defenseman.

Not worried about the Flames taking him as Feaster would likely know it would lead to a pink slip for him and everyone involved in picking a Russian with such an important pick. After the ROR fiasco this team cannot afford to pick a guy that will always have the KHL tugging his jersey. I have no issues with drafting a Russian player but not to be your franchise player. They are just too flaky and the hassle of dealing with their agents and the KHL option just isn't worth it in a draft where there is a lot of available high end talent.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by ignite09

He isn't the only one in the past few pages who has shown a bias. There are posters on both sides doing it. Personally I take him at #5 and on, I think the whole KHL thing has more to do with wanting a shot at the Olympics than it does his desire to stay in Russia. It's the same reason he joined the U18 team over his league team.

Hahaha...hahaha...hahaha. You actually believe that this kid has a chance to play on the Russian Olympic team 10 months from now. Hahahaha.

[Husky]

Nichushkin is the type of player you take a chance on if he slips due to Russian factor mid 1st round (like with the Blues pick - assuming they make the playoffs).

[Tinordi]

Unless something goes really wrong in the interview there is no chance Nichushkin drops out of the top 10. I anticipate he'll go anywhere between 3rd and 6th.

[ignite09]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

Hahaha...hahaha...hahaha. You actually believe that this kid has a chance to play on the Russian Olympic team 10 months from now. Hahahaha.

Yes, it's been mentioned by him as motivation over on his hf board thread. The russians are going to want to show off KHL talent during the olympics at home.

[The Yen Man]

Well, seeing as Flames will probably be picking 4-6 range, I'm hoping he goes top 4. Should the Flames pick fifth, that still allows for either Mackinnon or Barkov. Please please let this work out for the Flames. It's been such a long time coming that Flames draft a franchise player. We freaking deserve it!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Unless something goes really wrong in the interview there is no chance Nichushkin drops out of the top 10. I anticipate he'll go anywhere between 3rd and 6th.

That would be awesome if a team picked him 3rd or even 4th as that would mean the Flames would have a shot at one of Barkov, McKinnon, or Drouin.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Unless something goes really wrong in the interview there is no chance Nichushkin drops out of the top 10. I anticipate he'll go anywhere between 3rd and 6th.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

That would be awesome if a team picked him 3rd or even 4th as that would mean the Flames would have a shot at one of Barkov, McKinnon, or Drouin.

I think he goes between 6th and 8th, but I agree with EE - it would be awesome for the Flames if somebody takes him top 3.

I think we'll go between 4th and 6th, so if he goes top 3, we would be looking at whichever one of the other 3 fell to 4th (sweet!), or Barkov, or Lindholm, depending on our spot.

[nik-]

Personally I'm hoping people go crazy and take Nurse and Nichushkin before us since it's looking like we'll be at 6 or 7 by the time this is over.

[albertGQ]

Is it a consensus that Barkov is drastically better than Monahan? The more I read about Sean the more I think I'd take him over Barkov

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Is it a consensus that Barkov is drastically better than Monahan? The more I read about Sean the more I think I'd take him over Barkov

Barkov is one of the youngest in this draft class and is already playing well against men. Being young gives the possibility of more untapped upside and playing against men and more than holding his own suggests he is physically mature and skilled. I would put him ahead of Monahan, but the long term picture they could become closer in terms of ability

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Is it a consensus that Barkov is drastically better than Monahan? The more I read about Sean the more I think I'd take him over Barkov

Most stuff I've read has the top 8 split into two tiers in terms of talent. Barkov is in the 1st tier and Monahan in the 2nd.

Barkov led his men's league team in scoring for most of the year as a teenager and was apparently quite reliable defensively as well. He's accomplished a lot more than Monahan so far I'd say. Monahan had a good year on a bad team playing against teenagers. He's kind of in a similar position that Scheiffele was (not saying their games are similar.)

Both solid prospects. But I haven't seen any lists that put Monahan higher than Barkov and most lists have Barkov several spots higher.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Most stuff I've read has the top 8 split into two tiers in terms of talent. Barkov is in the 1st tier and Monahan in the 2nd.

Barkov led his men's league team in scoring for most of the year as a teenager and was apparently quite reliable defensively as well. He's accomplished a lot more than Monahan so far I'd say. Monahan had a good year on a bad team playing against teenagers. He's kind of in a similar position that Scheiffele was (not saying their games are similar.)

Both solid prospects. But I haven't seen any lists that put Monahan higher than Barkov and most lists have Barkov several spots higher.

Scheiffele is a good comparison as he led a bad team in scoring in his draft year and teams wondered if he was a very good player on a bad team or a good player that got a lot of ice time on a bad team. He's one of those players that got a lot of hype just prior to the draft. So far he looks like a good player but I can't say that he was worthy to be picked ahead of Baertschi, Hamilton, Brodin, Couturier.

[dammage79]

I don't see why Feaster would be fired if he picked Nichushkin. Ooutside of the apparent desire by everyone in the Flames and who follow the Flames to draft and high profile center.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I don't see why Feaster would be fired if he picked Nichushkin. Ooutside of the apparent desire by everyone in the Flames and who follow the Flames to draft and high profile center.

His job is safe at the moment but after this season he's probably on shaky ground going forward. He didn't exactly make out like gangbusters on the Iginla trade although he's been cut some slack due to the conditions. The ROR fiasco was a black eye for the organization. His coaching replacement for Brent has not paid off in the first year. Last year's first round pick was used on a player many around the league thought was a huge reach with high bust potential that may or may not pan out into a top 6 forward. If he signs off on using the Flames first pick on another boom/bust pick and that goes bust he's probably signing his pink slip. If Jankowski busts and Nishushkin never comes to the NHL or does come and pout when coaches make him work and goes home as some Russians have done the Flames could be looking at a seriously long rebuild. If Monahan for example has less high end potential but looks like a solid bet to be at worst a 2nd line center he will be more useful than possibly a lightning rod player.

We are all speculating here as we have no idea the order of players they covet but considering that Craig Button is smitten on Barkov I think it's safe to say that he's high on Todd Button's list and that's the guy the Flames may be targeting if they are around pick 4.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I could be mistaken, but I thought that I recall reading somewhere that Nichushkin stated that was in fact his reason and he also stated that he intends to play in the NHL.

I don't doubt that he is sincere, but money has a way of complicating things. He'll end up having to take a pay cut for 3 years when it comes to signing his ELC in the NHL. It's one thing to talk the talk right now, but when it actually comes down to it in 2 years, will he still feel that way?

Having said that, I would not hesitate to take him outside of the top 10 assuming we still have our own pick in the top 10.

It isn't just whether he'll come over at first. But you have to seriously consider the chance the kid takes his ball and goes home if things don't go well.

If he comes over and isn't ready will he accept a demotion to the AHL?

If he comes over and the coach wants more out of him defensively will he will just say screw it, I'm heading home?

If he comes over and has trouble adapting to the language and culture will he get homesick?

Unless a Russian has come over already to play in the CHL (this mitigates the cultural transition issue and shows a level of dedication to making the NHL), or is at the Ovechkin/Malkin level (which I don't believe this kid is) I think you always have to be worried about their motivation to stay in NA when they can go back to their homeland and make good money.

Obviously not every Russian will be like that but it is hard to tell ahead of time. You have to be pretty convinced about his character, determination and willingness to adapt and do what the coach and organization asks of him.

The risk isn't just if he'll come over in the first place. But also if he'll abandon the NHL when the going gets tough. There's just too much history with Radulov, Kostsitsyn, etc to rule it out completely. If this ends up being our highest pick ever you want to pick a kid that will stick around for a decade.

Am I biased against Russian picks? You bet I am. That is because in my time of following the draft closely in the last 15 years I'd say the bust rate of Russians taken in the top 15 is around 75%. I remember the hype around Zherdev (Redline had him #1 in 2003 IIRC), most skilled player in the draft! I remember the hype around Filatov. Is Nichushkin any more of a sure thing than those guys? Not convinced he is. He is bigger than them, I'll give you that.

Combine the bust rate of Russians taken high with the uncertainty about when he comes and if he could abandon the NHL and go back to his homeland and make big bucks and you have a much greater risk than picking a Canadian, Swede or Finn. Would I still gamble on him around the #8 pick or later? Yep, probably would. Would I gamble on him in the top 5-6? I wouldn't, I just think its too risky especially with some really high upside centres still available.

Pros
-----
-Size/strength/skill combo

Cons
-----
-plays a position that isn't our biggest need
-Russian risk factor. When will he come? Will he stay if the going gets tough?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

His job is safe at the moment but after this season he's probably on shaky ground going forward. He didn't exactly make out like gangbusters on the Iginla trade although he's been cut some slack due to the conditions. Last year's first round pick was used on a player many around the league thought was a huge reach with high bust potential that may or may not pan out into a top 6 forward. If he signs off on using the Flames first pick on another boom/bust pick and that goes bust he's probably signing his pink slip. If Jankowski busts and Nishushkin never comes to the NHL or does come and pout when coaches make him work and goes home as some Russians have done the Flames could be looking at a seriously long rebuild. If Monahan for example has less high end potential but looks like a solid bet to be at worst a 2nd line center he will be more useful than possibly a lightning rod player.

We are all speculating here as we have no idea the order of players they covet but considering that Craig Button is smitten on Barkov I think it's safe to say that he's high on Todd Button's list and that's the guy the Flames may be targeting if they are around pick 4.

Nothing would make me happier if Barkov is the real target. But if they chose Nichushkin I would not cry either. The prospect of having a Janko Nichushkin line a couple years down the road is drool inducing. Of course everything would have to pan out the right but that would be formidable.

And I understand russian players can make more money playing at home but that hasn't stopped any of them from playing in the NHL. Heck even radulov has come back from his exile. I do not suspect that Nichushkin is that kind of guy.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

And I understand russian players can make more money playing at home but that hasn't stopped any of them from playing in the NHL. Heck even radulov has come back from his exile. I do not suspect that Nichushkin is that kind of guy.

Where are Radulov and Kostitsyn playing this season? The KHL. Both top 15 Russian/Belorussian picks.

Kostitsyn had top 5 talent in the 2003 draft (I think Redline had him 4th). But I'm sure the Canadiens wished they had taken Carter, Seabrook, Brown, Parise, Getlzaf, Richards, Kesler, Perry, Bergeron or Weber instead. Same goes for CBJ who took the even more highly touted Zherdev 4th overall with Doug Maclean proudly proclaiming they had him #1 on their draft list. They could have taken any of the above as well as Vanek, Suter, Michalek, Phaneuf.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Where are Radulov and Kostitsyn playing this season? The KHL. Both top 15 Russian/Belorussian picks.

Who cares? I don't, not every single Russian is like the very select few you posted about. For every Zherdev, Radulov and lol kostitsyn there are other players who have stayed, played and taken their bumps.

As a fan all I can hope for is they do their homework before making any pick. If you have to wait two years to see Nichushkin come over then it will be worth the wait. And that will be painfully obvious when he gets picked between 2-8 in the draft.

If you are right and there is a risk, he will drop like a rock through the draft. but since the majority of scouting organizations don't feel this will happen, this Russian factor you speak of holds zero meaning right now. Nothing out there says teams should be afraid of picking this player.

As for your add on, thats the risk of the draft. For every Zherdev there is a Daigle, Schremp, Stefan and Hickey and countless other high draft picks from other countries who have failed at making the NHL. not much of an argument there.