2012 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Caged Great]

According to OBP, OPS and a bunch of other nerd stats, Adam Lind was actually one of the worst regular players in all of baseball last year, and the only thing that redeemed him from being the worst was the HRs

He needs to hit .280, OBP around .350, with his OPS over .800 for him to be good at 1st. Otherwise you would actually be better off throwing Bautista at 1st, and putting both Thames and Snider in the outfield

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

1. I am not sure what you mean by Adam Lind, not being a quality baseball player? I just am unsure where that is coming from - because Lind has been pretty consistant over the last three years in hitting over 20 HR's (35, 23, 26), and driving in over 70 runs (114, 72, 87). I will grant you hit batting average has slipped from 2009 (.305) down to .251 in 2011. But it isn't like he is a terrible player. Mark Texiera hits along the same lines in terms of average. I am not saying Lind = Texiera, but Lind has filled a gapping hole at 1B for the club, and I am satisfied with him being there until the right options become available via the farm system or free agency.

I am glad the Jays didn't drop their pants for Fielder, because I think that money that is "supposedly" there can be better distributed throughout their roster. Lind won't ever be an all-star again - but he does provide decent protection behind Bautista, and hitting from the left side also gives other manager's fits trying to match their pen to a R/L scenario.

2. I may be in the minorty here - but I am having a hard time seeing Rasmus as being fine. Career .251 hitter, and had as disasterous year last year. Do I think he'll bounce back - yes. Do I think he is anything more than a .260 hitter, with 20 HR's and 60 RBI? I don't know, history would show us, no. I guess I just don't see how you can say Rasmus will be fine, and Lind is not a quality baseball player - all in the same breath.

I hope I am wrong, I hope Rasmus achieves the type of results that his hype says he should - but I just don't see it. He has a beautiful swing, is young yet and has plenty of time to turn it around - but he has to start showing progression towards being a steady bat in the line up.

3. I'll give you this, but I would like to know the reasoning behind you saying that Lawrie has no chance of hitting 4th? Is it because you don't think Farrell won't slot him there, you don't think Lowrie is quite ready, Bautista and Lawrie would be easier to combat in the latter innings, both swinging from the same side of the plate? Just curious to why you don't think Lawrie couldn't swing it in the cleanup spot.

I do think that Lawrie maybe isn't ready to assume to role of providing protection for Bautista - but I don't think we really know what Brett Lawrie is yet either. I could see him hitting fifth or sixth to start the season, but if he continues to produce the way he did in 2011, or even show progression towards MLB pitching - I don't see any real good reason for him not to be there. It isn't like there are a pile of hitters lined up to hit behind Bautista - and that isn't taking anything away from the club either, there just isn't a true clean up hitter that would strike the fear in opposing pitchers.

Batting average and RBI's, the argument was lost on me the second these statistics were used, that mean absolutely nothing. Adam Lind was one of the worst major league baseball players last season statistically and has a pretty lazy work ethic to go along with it. Adam Lind is awful, just like he was awful in 2010. The saddest part is, a .295 OBP is an actual upgrade on his 2010 season which is disgusting to think about, for a guy batting 4th in our lineup. You don't need to lose yourself in saber-metrics to talk baseball but understand that in the baseball community, average and RBI's mean almost nothing anymore to anyone but Joe Buck.

Rasmus is still young and his sample size with the Jays was far to small to give any type of conclusion into what player he can be, especially with the immediate upgrade he is in CF defensively and his 2010 .859 OPS he posted. He has a full season to prove himself as a Blue Jay and he deserves it. His glove alone is an upgrade from last season

Lawrie just won't get put in the 4th hole. I believe he could very well do it, but they are not going to push him into that slot any time soon.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Batting average and RBI's, the argument was lost on me the second these statistics were used, that mean absolutely nothing. Adam Lind was one of the worst major league baseball players last season statistically and has a pretty lazy work ethic to go along with it. Adam Lind is awful, just like he was awful in 2010. The saddest part is, a .295 OBP is an actual upgrade on his 2010 season which is disgusting to think about, for a guy batting 4th in our lineup. You don't need to lose yourself in saber-metrics to talk baseball but understand that in the baseball community, average and RBI's mean almost nothing anymore to anyone but Joe Buck.

Rasmus is still young and his sample size with the Jays was far to small to give any type of conclusion into what player he can be, especially with the immediate upgrade he is in CF defensively and his 2010 .859 OPS he posted. He has a full season to prove himself as a Blue Jay and he deserves it. His glove alone is an upgrade from last season

Lawrie just won't get put in the 4th hole. I believe he could very well do it, but they are not going to push him into that slot any time soon.

I agree that there is more to baseball than just RBI and batting average - OBP, OPS and advanced sabremetrics give you a better glimpse into what an individual is actually doing. But to say that batting average and and runs batted in are useless, seems to be overlooking a few simple measures as well. You aren't going to put 7 of the Jays' top-9 hitters in the four spot in your lineup, simply because of the pressure that goes along with hitting there. Has Adam Lind had a great last couple of years, no. Has Adam Lind been a problem for the club, I don't think so. You go back to Rasmus' 2010 season in an arguement, why don't we flip the calender back another year to 2009 and talk about Adam Lind?

There is a lot that goes along with hitting clean up, especially when you are following a slugger like Jose Bautista. You have to be able to handle fastballs, you have to be able to advance runners with less than two outs, you have to be able to hit with runners on - and Lind finished with a .745 OPS in 2011. Not earth shattering, not not terrible either. I am not saying Adam Lind is the answer to all our prayers, but he is on par with what I'd expect from him. Could the Jays find a better first basebman - yeah, there are lots out there that could produce better than Lind. But you take a look at the names that are ahead of him, and the cost via trade or free agency to acquire them, does that make sense for the organization? I don't know, but I for one am comfortable with Lind being our everyday cleanup hitter until someone steps up and shows they can handle the load. Ideally, I think Lind is a better 5 or 6 hitter, but as you said about Lawrie - who is ready to take over that role?

EDIT - I found it interesting, and not for arguement sake - Adam Lind was leading Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard at the All-Star break in OPS. Adam Lind was leading Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard at the All-Star break in SLG. Adam Lind was not leading anyone of the three previously mentioned in OBP at the All-Star break.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

There is a lot that goes along with hitting clean up, especially when you are following a slugger like Jose Bautista. You have to be able to handle fastballs, you have to be able to advance runners with less than two outs, you have to be able to hit with runners on...

This, imo, is why I don't want or think Lawrie gets any action as a top 5 guy this year - I consider those two spots to be ideal for veterans. I prefer asking a veteran to move the runner or go for a pop-fly in those prime RBI spots and I prefer leaving the #6 and 7 guy to 'just play.'

Let Lawrie and Rasmus do whatever they/coaches want, and ask Lind and Encarcion to earn exactly what the other team is trying to avoid. I realize that batting-forth and batting-sixth is a rather arbitrary distinction, but one that I still expect to be made.

[Gozer]

As for Lind, the last two seasons he's been worth -0.4 and 0.7 WAR respectively.
His career OPS is .782 and dropping.

I'm happy with EE and Lind splitting time at 1B this season with Cooper as a fallback - but if that platoon isn't competitive in the division then that's an upgrade I'd like to see at the deadline or next off-season.

[Sylvanfan]

Lind started out okay, got injured, came back and was on a serious roll. I think he was hitting around .325 and slugging at a .550 clip. Than the wheels fell off.

I remember an interview after he hit his 100th career home run, and he sounded like a guy who felt he had nothing more to accomplish. I was expecting him to say hit like I did in 2009 and do it consistently. Instead he says I don't know, keep hitting 20 home runs I guess? They even asked him what about 200 home runs and he's like I don't know...

I certainly was bit surprised, and it didn't seem like a motivated guy who wanted to be better. A lot like a Jay Bouwmeester is what he sounded like. I think a team like the Jays should be targeting .825 or better OPS from the position. If Lind doesn't give you that, I think you have to look to replace him.

[flames_1987]

His "I don't like to workout" speech wasn't to inspiring this spring either.

Alvarez looked very strong again today, and looks like he will be the starter for the home opener, now only weeks away. Can't freaking wait

[The Big Chill]

It appears that Thames has won the job in LF as Snider has been optioned to AAA.

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2012/0...e-a/#more-4318

We knew all along that one of them would have to move, but after the great spring that Snider has had, I have to say I'm surprised that he has been the one sent down. I'm sure we will be seeing him again before too long though.

[KelVarnsen]

I wanted Snider to win, but it was Thames job to lose. Snider is a much better LF then Thames, I suspect it won't last long.

If i was the Blue Jays, make one of the two a 1B. See if they can be better then Lind.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

If i was the Blue Jays, make one of the two a 1B. See if they can be better then Lind.

Snider will likely win the job in the long run...but you can't keep experimenting with guys at 1B hoping that they'll develop, this is the major leagues. Snider has been dicked around enough...a move to 1B will likely ruin him completely.

[Caged Great]

I think they'll end up trading Thames later on in the year and bring Snider up.

[flambers]

Good news for Snider is this is his last year with Options... Jays are making a brutual decision with Snider.

He will gain nothing from another season in AAA.

However, before training camp even started this was an obvious move the Jays were going to make....

[VERVE]

Dustin McGowan is injured. However, it is not a serious injury.

" At least that’s the message Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos conveyed after McGowan was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis, an inflammation of the tissue connecting the toes and heel of his right foot.
“This is just a blip, if anything,” Anthopoulos said.
The embattled Blue Jays pitcher removed himself from his scheduled minor-league start in the second inning on Sunday and was examined by a podiatrist. He is listed as day-to-day. "

-National Post (March 25) http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/...injured-again/

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by VERVE

Dustin McGowan is injured. However, it is not a serious injury.

" At least that’s the message Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos conveyed after McGowan was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis, an inflammation of the tissue connecting the toes and heel of his right foot.
“This is just a blip, if anything,” Anthopoulos said.
The embattled Blue Jays pitcher removed himself from his scheduled minor-league start in the second inning on Sunday and was examined by a podiatrist. He is listed as day-to-day. "

-National Post (March 25) http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/...injured-again/

I'm sort of a casual Jays follower, but I was wondering why the Jays have been holding on to an oft-injured McGowen for all these years? Is it JUST his 100kmph fast ball that's got the Jays management hooked on him?

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

I'm sort of a casual Jays follower, but I was wondering why the Jays have been holding on to an oft-injured McGowen for all these years? Is it JUST his 100mph fast ball that's got the Jays management hooked on him?

FYP - and to answer your question, I think the Jays and a lot of fans were just getting a glimpse of how special McGowan was about to be before running into injuries. It really does take a special arm to flirt with a no-hitter. I remember listening to that game on the radio, and thinking, "both him and Marcum were going to be the future of our rotation". I think if McGowan becomes a Shaun Marcum - he will be well worth the wait.

[flames_1987]

Mcgowan had so much going for him. He has no option lefts so this could be the end of this great story of him coming back.

[Matty81]

Too bad about Snider, wish him and Thames could just take turns between lf and dh and edwin would just get the boot.

[Jason14h]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/st...ound-greatness

Jayson Stark ESPN article on Lawrie

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

I'm sort of a casual Jays follower, but I was wondering why the Jays have been holding on to an oft-injured McGowen for all these years? Is it JUST his 100kmph fast ball that's got the Jays management hooked on him?

It is about the mutual admiration, loyalty and respect shared between the Jays and McGowan, the pitcher they drafted out of high school.

I remembered when he debuted for the Blue Jays in 2005, he had an impressive start. In 2006-2007, he had solid stuff (I believed 4-5 pitches) that had a lot of late movements. His fastballs average velocity was about 96 and at times hit about 99 mph. So the Jays viewed him as a pitcher that would eventually pitch alongside Halladay and Burnett and later becoming their ace. At the end of 2007, he had 12 wins.

In the middle of the 2008 season, he left the team for a shoulder surgery. He had a slow recovery and when his recovery seemed to be looking promising, he suffered another injury. He had knee surgery to follow and after a promising recovery he was set to start pitching again. Before that happened, he was injured again and had another different shoulder surgery. I remembered reading and watching his interviews and thinking how dejected he was at the time.

During each of his surgeries, McGowan worked very hard and was determined to get back to pitching again. You never read any bad press about Dustin during his injuries. There was no report about Dustin complaining about his bad fortune or that he was giving up on his career. In my mind given all his setbacks, I thought he was going to retire. Throughout his injuries and recovery period, the Jays never discounted him out but I am sure they were questioning his future to remain healthy with the team.

In 2011, Dustin came home to make his first pitch since 2008 (over 3 years). It was quite an emotional day for everyone involved and the crowd gave him a standing ovation. You could tell by the look on his face that he was grateful to the fans and Jays for being so loyal to him and he was holding back tears as he saluted the fans. The camera panned to his wife who watched him anxiously and was excited for him as he took the mound. His pitches never really lost any velocity. His fastballs were averaging 94-95 mph and topping out at 97 mph and again with a lot of late movements. He pitched 4 innings. I am sure there were many people who were quite impressed with his comeback.

I hope this year will be his year to be a regular starter. They are expecting him to hold the 5 spot in the rotation but not letting him go over 5-6 innings and perhaps fewer games. Some critics preferred he started in the bullpen as a long reliever. Fingers crossed.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I think they'll end up trading Thames later on in the year and bring Snider up.

I've been thinking this as well. If they can trade Snider for something decent I'm ok with that too, but he seems like one of those players that will make you look silly for trading him in another 5 years.

Thames has been pretty decent this spring though, so not like it's a terrible decision or anything.