2012 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[dhc-2]

Very excited for the Jays this year. Moreso since it's looking less and less likely the Flames will be at the post-season dance. At least we'll have a Jays team with some buzz around it kicking off their season just as the Flames are ending (I hope I'm wrong!).
The biggest worry I have with this club though is our starting rotation. All signs so far have been encouraging, but if we take off the Jays-coloured glasses for a second, the reality is our rotation is still highly unproven.

Romero, seemingly a bona-fide ace now, has one true 'ace' year under his belt. He needs to stay healthy all year (you never know with pitchers' arms), and he needs to repeat and likely better his performance from last year. This just isn't 100% guaranteed at this point. He isn't Halladay yet.

Morrow's never pitched more than 180 innings and has never had an ERA below 4.00 as a starter. We'll need to see significant improvement from him. 200 innings and a 3.50 ERA, he'll need to show us that he can do it.

McGowan's spring has been very encouraging, but you simply cannot ignore the major arm troubles. I'd be very surprised if we don't see him on the DL at least once this year...hopefully not permanently.

Cecil - I have the same concerns with him as everyone else. Decreased velocity means his control will have to be there all the time. No margin for error. Cecil has never been a control pitcher. Can he do it? We just don't know.

Alvarez - 10 MLB starts to his credit. Good numbers, but hitters never have a book on young pitchers. How will he do once hitters have seen him a few times, especially AL East hitters?

Drabek - Great prospect still, but has proven nothing at the major league level. The reports this spring about his attitude, his controlling of emotion and his stuff have been encouraging, but again, he's unproven.

I'm not trying to be negative but you can't expect all 6 guys to have career years all at once. Some of the above-mentioned guys will falter, some will get hurt. And I don't know if we have the depth to keep us afloat in the AL East if some of these guys underperform or go down to injury. I'd love to see us get into the playoffs this year, and I'll be very disappointed if we don't, but I just see 2013 as more likely.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by dhc-2

Very excited for the Jays this year. Moreso since it's looking less and less likely the Flames will be at the post-season dance. At least we'll have a Jays team with some buzz around it kicking off their season just as the Flames are ending (I hope I'm wrong!).
The biggest worry I have with this club though is our starting rotation. All signs so far have been encouraging, but if we take off the Jays-coloured glasses for a second, the reality is our rotation is still highly unproven.

Romero, seemingly a bona-fide ace now, has one true 'ace' year under his belt. He needs to stay healthy all year (you never know with pitchers' arms), and he needs to repeat and likely better his performance from last year. This just isn't 100% guaranteed at this point. He isn't Halladay yet.

Morrow's never pitched more than 180 innings and has never had an ERA below 4.00 as a starter. We'll need to see significant improvement from him. 200 innings and a 3.50 ERA, he'll need to show us that he can do it.

McGowan's spring has been very encouraging, but you simply cannot ignore the major arm troubles. I'd be very surprised if we don't see him on the DL at least once this year...hopefully not permanently.

Cecil - I have the same concerns with him as everyone else. Decreased velocity means his control will have to be there all the time. No margin for error. Cecil has never been a control pitcher. Can he do it? We just don't know.

Alvarez - 10 MLB starts to his credit. Good numbers, but hitters never have a book on young pitchers. How will he do once hitters have seen him a few times, especially AL East hitters?

Drabek - Great prospect still, but has proven nothing at the major league level. The reports this spring about his attitude, his controlling of emotion and his stuff have been encouraging, but again, he's unproven.

I'm not trying to be negative but you can't expect all 6 guys to have career years all at once. Some of the above-mentioned guys will falter, some will get hurt. And I don't know if we have the depth to keep us afloat in the AL East if some of these guys underperform or go down to injury. I'd love to see us get into the playoffs this year, and I'll be very disappointed if we don't, but I just see 2013 as more likely.

Romero and Morrow don't need to have career years, ERA is far from a deteimrining stat for pitcher. If those two just have similar years as last the Jays will at least have two very strong pitchers,, the rest of the rotation is to be seen but Alvarez's only knock is he's still young besides his incredible performance so far, Mcgowan is only going to last half the season and then we will see Drabek come up I think. AA is still in the market for another SP

[dhc-2]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Romero and Morrow don't need to have career years, ERA is far from a deteimrining stat for pitcher. If those two just have similar years as last the Jays will at least have two very strong pitchers,, the rest of the rotation is to be seen but Alvarez's only knock is he's still young besides his incredible performance so far, Mcgowan is only going to last half the season and then we will see Drabek come up I think. AA is still in the market for another SP

ERA is far from a trivial stat as well. Top teams have low team ERAs and we'll need the top end of our rotation to keep that number down.

And I'm as excited about Alvarez as the next guy but the majors are filled with young guys putting up good numbers for about half a year, then getting knocked around so bad we never hear from them again, because batters have now seen them and adjusted to them.
And McGowan staying healthy and Drabek showing he can pitch at this level are still pretty big 'if's'...
I'd love for you to be right, but I'm just a little bit skeptical at this point.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Looks like Kelly Johnson will start the season batting in the #2 slot.



http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=390908

Kelly Johnson just makes me feel so....meh. His defense is average at best and he doesn't seem to hit for much average. The only good thing about him is that he hits for decent power for a 2B. I mean, AA didn't even want the guy back at first, he wanted the draft picks he would have gotten us if he went to FA. I hope either Johnson proves me wrong or that Hech (can I call him that?) is brought up soon and Yunel is moved to second.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by dhc-2

ERA is far from a trivial stat as well. Top teams have low team ERAs and we'll need the top end of our rotation to keep that number down.

And I'm as excited about Alvarez as the next guy but the majors are filled with young guys putting up good numbers for about half a year, then getting knocked around so bad we never hear from them again, because batters have now seen them and adjusted to them.
And McGowan staying healthy and Drabek showing he can pitch at this level are still pretty big 'if's'...
I'd love for you to be right, but I'm just a little bit skeptical at this point.

ERA just doesn't tell the full story, just like batting average.

Morrow and Romero are both reliable pitchers.

Re: Alvarez you could say the same thing about any young pitcher ever starting in MLB. He's not a sure thing, but there is no such thing as a sure thing.

The Jays rotation clearly still has some question marks, that's why they've got so many excellent arms in the system now waiting to come up. I'm not disagreeing with the rotation still having some question marks for this seaosn but they don't all need to have a career year to be successful

[Sylvanfan]

Yeah, lets be honest if Morrow was to absolutely dominate every 2nd start say averaging 8 innings and 2 earned runs, than give up 5 runs in 6 innings the other starts his ERA would be 4.50. But you'd get 220 innings out of him, and chances are over 33 starts, he'd likely end up with 17-18 wins.

Really innings and some more consistency is what I'd like to see from Morrow. I don't care if his ERA is 4.40. If he can stay in games, and stay healthy, and be more consistent than that will help the pitching staff. I think it's going to be key for the Jays to get 420 to 430 innings from Romero, and Morrow, because after them I don't know if there's another arm that can get them 160.

[REDVAN]

Maybe I'm over-simplifying this, but if the pitcher has an ERA of 4.50, who cares? As long as we score more than 4.50 a game, we'll win more than we lose.

With the hitters this team has, the pitching and defense should be no problem, as long as the pitchers can get more quality starts than last season.

[dhc-2]

Originally Posted by REDVAN

Maybe I'm over-simplifying this, but if the pitcher has an ERA of 4.50, who cares? As long as we score more than 4.50 a game, we'll win more than we lose.

With the hitters this team has, the pitching and defense should be no problem, as long as the pitchers can get more quality starts than last season.

Ideally, yes, you can get by with mediocre pitching if your bats are good, but games get more competitive down the stretch and I'd really rather have good pitching rather than good hitting if we're talking about September/October success.

I do agree, however, that we'll get more quality starts than last season, I just don't know how much. Still overall I'm excited and I think we'll be in the mix for most of the season (hopefully at the end of the season as well).

[REDVAN]

Originally Posted by dhc-2

Ideally, yes, you can get by with mediocre pitching if your bats are good, but games get more competitive down the stretch and I'd really rather have good pitching rather than good hitting if we're talking about September/October success.

I do agree, however, that we'll get more quality starts than last season, I just don't know how much. Still overall I'm excited and I think we'll be in the mix for most of the season (hopefully at the end of the season as well).

I guess, what I mean to say, is that I think this team can still compete for the spare wildcard with the roster as-is. I do not think they can get very far in playoffs with the current pitching staff, nonetheless, I think they are very close to getting that final spot.

10 more wins is what it took last season. Is that possible, yes. Is it probably, no.

Would be nice to see the Jays at 90 wins though.

[dhc-2]

I agree, they will compete for that final spot. One thing in my mind that might offset that pitching disadvantage is that both Boston and the Yanks seem to have sort of taken a step back. We have yet to see how the Red Sox epic collapse at the tail-end of last season will affect them, and how they play with a new manager.

As for New York, it just seems like things haven't been quite right there for a few years, I think they may be heading slowly downwards. I just don't think the AL East might be as strong this year as in years past, which can only be a good thing for us.

[Jason14h]

As for New York, it just seems like things haven't been quite right there for a few years, I think they may be heading slowly downwards. I just don't think the AL East might be as strong this year as in years past, which can only be a good thing for us.

NY has a much stronger pitching staff then last season, especially if Petitte can contribute.

[Caged Great]

Morrow's SIERA (skill independent ERA AKA luck free ERA) was the 8th best in all of baseball last year. Basically what that means is that the defense was so terrible last year during his starts that he was getting charged with runs that if we had better D would not have been scored, as well as a huge heaping pile of bad luck.

Additionally, his BB/9 has dropped from over 5 three years ago to 4.5 two years ago, to under 4 last year. If he can continue to lower that BB/9 to around the 3 mark, along with the improved defense, Morrow's nerd stats should start being reflected in his actual stats.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by dhc-2

I agree, they will compete for that final spot. One thing in my mind that might offset that pitching disadvantage is that both Boston and the Yanks seem to have sort of taken a step back. We have yet to see how the Red Sox epic collapse at the tail-end of last season will affect them, and how they play with a new manager.

As for New York, it just seems like things haven't been quite right there for a few years, I think they may be heading slowly downwards. I just don't think the AL East might be as strong this year as in years past, which can only be a good thing for us.

My opinion is that the Red Sox are the team poised to take a step backwards, albeit that step backwards might be small they still lost some key players over the off season. Adding to that I don't think Valentine is as good as Francona. I also hate the Red Sox with a blinding passion and every year I prey they spiral into mediocrity.

[The Big Chill]

Morrow pitched a beauty today. Great to see.

[dhc-2]

Excellent! Bad day for the bats though. I'm worried about Lind, he is going to be offering no protection for Bautista if he continues like this. I wonder if any thought has been given to having Lawrie bat 4th?

Rasmus' numbers don't look so good either.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by dhc-2

Excellent! Bad day for the bats though. I'm worried about Lind, he is going to be offering no protection for Bautista if he continues like this. I wonder if any thought has been given to having Lawrie bat 4th?

Rasmus' numbers don't look so good either.

Gabe Gross once was a Spring Training Superstar.

I wouldn't really worry about spring too much.

[flames_1987]

Adam Lind is just not a quality baseball player, spring or not spring.

Rasmus will be fine.

No chance Lawrie is hitting 4th

[whosurnabby]

Morrow's SIERA (skill independent ERA AKA luck free ERA) was the 8th best in all of baseball last year. Basically what that means is that the defense was so terrible last year during his starts that he was getting charged with runs that if we had better D would not have been scored, as well as a huge heaping pile of bad luck.

Additionally, his BB/9 has dropped from over 5 three years ago to 4.5 two years ago, to under 4 last year. If he can continue to lower that BB/9 to around the 3 mark, along with the improved defense, Morrow's nerd stats should start being reflected in his actual stats

I guess having Rasmus, Thames (or Snider?), and Lawrie is good news -with regards to our overall team D is- then.

Remember last year when we had LF Corey Patterson (once Snider got demoted), RF Luis Rivera, and CF Rajai Davis as our everyday outfield line-up for the first half of the season? Or when we had E5 (Encarnacion) and Jayson Nix manning third last year? I still do, and that's why I'm pretty damn optimistic about this season. 2011 opening day line-up was BRUTAL compared to what we're gearing up for this year.

[dhc-2]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Adam Lind is just not a quality baseball player, spring or not spring.

Rasmus will be fine.

No chance Lawrie is hitting 4th

I agree on Lind, and that's why I'm worried about the 4th slot. Who else do we have that can protect Bautista to any degree? Encarnacion? Snider? Rasmus? None of those are 4th hitters. Teams just aren't going to be punished for walking Bautista, and they'll do it more than they ever have.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

Adam Lind is just not a quality baseball player, spring or not spring.

Rasmus will be fine.

No chance Lawrie is hitting 4th

1. I am not sure what you mean by Adam Lind, not being a quality baseball player? I just am unsure where that is coming from - because Lind has been pretty consistant over the last three years in hitting over 20 HR's (35, 23, 26), and driving in over 70 runs (114, 72, 87). I will grant you hit batting average has slipped from 2009 (.305) down to .251 in 2011. But it isn't like he is a terrible player. Mark Texiera hits along the same lines in terms of average. I am not saying Lind = Texiera, but Lind has filled a gapping hole at 1B for the club, and I am satisfied with him being there until the right options become available via the farm system or free agency.

I am glad the Jays didn't drop their pants for Fielder, because I think that money that is "supposedly" there can be better distributed throughout their roster. Lind won't ever be an all-star again - but he does provide decent protection behind Bautista, and hitting from the left side also gives other manager's fits trying to match their pen to a R/L scenario.

2. I may be in the minorty here - but I am having a hard time seeing Rasmus as being fine. Career .251 hitter, and had as disasterous year last year. Do I think he'll bounce back - yes. Do I think he is anything more than a .260 hitter, with 20 HR's and 60 RBI? I don't know, history would show us, no. I guess I just don't see how you can say Rasmus will be fine, and Lind is not a quality baseball player - all in the same breath.

I hope I am wrong, I hope Rasmus achieves the type of results that his hype says he should - but I just don't see it. He has a beautiful swing, is young yet and has plenty of time to turn it around - but he has to start showing progression towards being a steady bat in the line up.

3. I'll give you this, but I would like to know the reasoning behind you saying that Lawrie has no chance of hitting 4th? Is it because you don't think Farrell won't slot him there, you don't think Lowrie is quite ready, Bautista and Lawrie would be easier to combat in the latter innings, both swinging from the same side of the plate? Just curious to why you don't think Lawrie couldn't swing it in the cleanup spot.

I do think that Lawrie maybe isn't ready to assume to role of providing protection for Bautista - but I don't think we really know what Brett Lawrie is yet either. I could see him hitting fifth or sixth to start the season, but if he continues to produce the way he did in 2011, or even show progression towards MLB pitching - I don't see any real good reason for him not to be there. It isn't like there are a pile of hitters lined up to hit behind Bautista - and that isn't taking anything away from the club either, there just isn't a true clean up hitter that would strike the fear in opposing pitchers.