Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Let's split that number. 18-24 i think kids arent voting at all and if they are it's still under parents influence, a lot of affluent families in Calgary.

[Citation Needed]

If you're going to make a claim like that, back it up with data. Public polling shows that people in the age 18-34 who actually show up and vote almost always support progressive parties/candidates by large margins.

Yes, it's true that many in that age bracket don't vote at all compared to older demographic groups, but of those that do, they overwhelming favour progressives.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

[Citation Needed]

If you're going to make a claim like that, back it up with data. Public polling shows that people in the age 18-34 who actually show up and vote almost always support progressive parties/candidates by large margins.

Yes, it's true that many in that age bracket don't vote at all compared to older demographic groups, but of those that do, they overwhelming favour progressives.

I'm looking but can't find the breakdown for Alberta 2015 or Alberta 2019. I only have the Angus Reid polls above so far. I mean 49% of men and 63% of women isn;t overwhelming.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Because you started a thread to get me banned.

Technically I started a thread telling people to ignore you and the thread was very complimentary of your posting techniques.

I will return to taking my own advice, well done good sir.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I'm looking but can't find the breakdown for Alberta 2015 or Alberta 2019. I only have the Angus Reid polls above so far. I mean 49% of men and 63% of women isn;t overwhelming.

This is a chart from the same Angus Reid poll you were citing:



From the 18-34 group, 59% of men and 66% of women have an unfavourable view of Danielle Smith. By contrast, the unfavourable rating for Notley among those same age/gender groups is only 38% and 30%, respectively. Yes, that indicates younger voters prefer the progressive candidate by an overwhelming (almost 2-1) margin.

Here's another data point from the same poll:



If you merge the male and female results (weighted by sample size) from the data in the poll, you get the following breakdown of support among likely voters aged 18-34:

NDP: 55.2%
UCP: 33.9%

A 22-point lead is an overwhelming preference for the NDP for that age group.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think post the Nenshi election that mainstreet changed their polling methods. They used to be a straight phone dialer which in that election oversampled the anti-Nenshi crowd.

If you read some of Janet Brown’s stuff on her current model and methods is that she is actively trying reach out to groups that are under-sampled or in the online panels. She does this by focusing on phone polling and multiple phone calls to phones to try to maintain the randomness of the samples.

From the Baired article on Janet browns polling

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...94e44b504/amp/


When I read this quote from Brown I get flash backs to Mainstreets quote from the Smith /Nenshi election. It’s funny people still hack on mainstreet for that one without acknowledging he adjusted methods as a result of those results

None of this is saying she is wrong. As always a polling average made up of different methods of obtaining “random” samples is more likely to produce a better result than trying to pick the poll you think is right.

Yeah, the problem with what Brown's saying here is that this pattern of undersampling conservative voters doesn't necessarily hold true in Calgary. For example, every pollster massively underestimated Gondek's support in the municipal election, including Brown, who underestimated by 10%. That still made her closer than most including Mainstreet, but it strongly goes against the 'conservative voters are always undersampled' argument. Granted, she absolutely nailed the Calgary-level numbers in 2019 and so there's a reason to not change her process. But it's also possible that in Calgary there's more likelihood of moderate, centrist voters being a little more shy about left-wing support, in the same way that shy republican voters are a known phenomenon in US elections.

[PeteMoss]

It would be wildly shocking if young people favoured the UCP. Like break the mold shocking.

[cral12]

Interesting listen this AM - Nenshi endorsed Notley/NDP, something he's never done in the past with any party; Farkas made a comment that he thought lightning would strike him as he voted in advance polls which suggested he lent his vote to NDP & Notley...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1662125650499497987

[Cube Inmate]

There's an old saying (often attributed to Churchill?) "if you're not a liberal at 20, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative at 40, you have no brain."

From my personal experience, I'd revise that (with much less style): if you're not a fiscal conservative at 20, you have no ambition. If you're not a social democrat by 40, you probably have no clue how much of your success is due to the massive social infrastructure and structural advantage you've benefited from.

Hmm... don't think that'll end up on WikiQuotes.

[#-3]

I'd guess if Brown is wrong and the NDP wins, then she is not modeling voter enthusiasm correctly.

2019 had Calgary voters excited for a return to Blue.
2023 if things break hard for the NDP will an election of buyers remorse.
2023 if an easy UPC win might prove that Brown knows us better than we know ourselves.

You can have basically the same electorate, but 5% UPC voters sitting out and 5% NDP voters rejoining can swing the whole thing. Very anecdotal, but I need to push my wife a bit to get her voting, and didn't rally bother in 2019 when it was clear the UPC would win big in our riding, This year our riding is only a few spaces from the center 338s riding snake, and a made sure my wife got out.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, the problem with what Brown's saying here is that this pattern of undersampling conservative voters doesn't necessarily hold true in Calgary. For example, every pollster massively underestimated Gondek's support in the municipal election, including Brown, who underestimated by 10%. That still made her closer than most including Mainstreet, but it strongly goes against the 'conservative voters are always undersampled' argument. Granted, she absolutely nailed the Calgary-level numbers in 2019 and so there's a reason to not change her process. But it's also possible that in Calgary there's more likelihood of moderate, centrist voters being a little more shy about left-wing support, in the same way that shy republican voters are a known phenomenon in US elections.

Agree with everything your wrote

I think one learning from Brown’s poll would be that in a polling method designed not to undercount conservative voters the UCP is ahead. If they were not ahead then you could say they were in trouble. I’m not sure you glean more than that.

338 polling average putting it as a 70-30 UCP-NDP likelihood seems reasonable. Flip a coin twice two heads, NDP wins.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by yoho

just voted (ucp) at advanced poll super easy in and out.

tmi

[Johnny Makarov]

Anyone know why the NDP didn't really mention the $1.4billion pipeline buy at all?

Or was that a Jason Kenney thing?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I know Janet Brown is highly regarded but listening to that explanation makes me wonder if she doesn’t get how cell phones work.

If I get more than one call from an unknown number, I don’t answer the third one: I block it.

And almost no one I know under the age of 70 even HAS a landline. Landlines still exist?? Even my parents got rid of theirs!

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I know Janet Brown is highly regarded but listening to that explanation makes me wonder if she doesn’t get how cell phones work.

If I get more than one call from an unknown number, I don’t answer the third one: I block it.

And almost no one I know under the age of 70 even HAS a landline. Landlines still exist?? Even my parents got rid of theirs!

That's why polling doesn't really work anymore. Like who answers unknown numbers? other than seniors.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think post the Nenshi election that mainstreet changed their polling methods. They used to be a straight phone dialer which in that election oversampled the anti-Nenshi crowd.

If you read some of Janet Brown’s stuff on her current model and methods is that she is actively trying reach out to groups that are under-sampled or in the online panels. She does this by focusing on phone polling and multiple phone calls to phones to try to maintain the randomness of the samples.

From the Baired article on Janet browns polling

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...94e44b504/amp/





When I read this quote from Brown I get flash backs to Mainstreets quote from the Smith /Nenshi election. It’s funny people still hack on mainstreet for that one without acknowledging he adjusted methods as a result of those results

None of this is saying she is wrong. As always a polling average made up of different methods of obtaining “random” samples is more likely to produce a better result than trying to pick the poll you think is right.

Mainstreet also started polling in language. When 1 out of 5 homes in Calgary do not speak English or French in the home it is pretty hard to get multicultural votes correct if you poll in English. Mainstreet adjusted for that deficiency after the 2017 election.

I know if someone polled me in German I would just hang up.

[TorqueDog]

I just assume unknown numbers are:
- going to start speaking to me in Cantonese
- attempting to sell me HVAC duct cleaning from a scammer call centre in India
- some other of the various scam/spam phone calls that unknown numbers tend to be

... so I don't bother picking up. Leave a message.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Anyone know why the NDP didn't really mention the $1.4billion pipeline buy at all?

Or was that a Jason Kenney thing?

It frustrates me that the UCP (and PCs before them) change leaders and suddenly everything that happened in the past doesn’t matter. I mean I get that Smith is an easy target but Kenney’s term was also full of gold. Albertans need to be reminded that the whole party sucks and people like Shandro and Madu are still there.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Anyone know why the NDP didn't really mention the $1.4billion pipeline buy at all?

Or was that a Jason Kenney thing?

I suspect they want to avoid what would be the most likely 2 rebuttals:

1) Something something PPAs (which granted, is at least relevant)
2) It was cancelled by Justin Trudeau and Your boss Jagmeet Singh (which is a complete lie, but Danielle Smith would 100% say this)

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

I just assume unknown numbers are:
- going to start speaking to me in Cantonese
- attempting to sell me HVAC duct cleaning from a scammer call centre in India
- some other of the various scam/spam phone calls that unknown numbers tend to be

... so I don't bother picking up. Leave a message.

Or just send a text. Would be so much easier.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

I just assume unknown numbers are:
- going to start speaking to me in Cantonese
- attempting to sell me HVAC duct cleaning from a scammer call centre in India
- some other of the various scam/spam phone calls that unknown numbers tend to be

... so I don't bother picking up. Leave a message.

As long as the people who don’t pick up are not dissimilar from the people who do pick up you don’t have an issue.

And as long as you are adjusting for age and gender then it only matters if each age/gender call screener is the same in voting intention as the person who. So is there bias in those who answer phones. The same question can be asked of the online panels.