Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Puppet Guy]

Good article from Naheed Nenshi this morning. Given his position as mayor led him to deal with the NDP and UCP he has a unique perspective:



https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nahe...lumn-1.6413376

[FurnaceFace]

Farkas was on CBC (with Nenshi) this morning and he’s voting NDP. I guess he said something like “when lightning strikes the Glenmorgan polling station, you’ll know I voted!”

[Torture]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Brown's obviously a great pollster, but I have a really hard time believing that voters age 18-24 are favouring the UCP by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

That and that women are 50/50 on Notley/Smith when every other poll has shown a dominant lead for the NDP among women.
I hate to question a Janet Brown poll but something seems off.

How hard must it be to poll nowadays anyways, I never answer the phone for an unknown number.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by FurnaceFace

Farkas was on CBC (with Nenshi) this morning and he’s voting NDP. I guess he said something like “when lightning strikes the Glenmorgan polling station, you’ll know I voted!”

Did Farkas get lobotomized on his trek? He has been crazy reasonable and decent since he returned! It has to be aliens!

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Did Farkas get lobotomized on his trek? He has been crazy reasonable and decent since he returned! It has to be aliens!

Personal growth is a real thing, speaking from experience.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Torture

That and that women are 50/50 on Notley/Smith when every other poll has shown a dominant lead for the NDP among women.
I hate to question a Janet Brown poll but something seems off.

How hard must it be to poll nowadays anyways, I never answer the phone for an unknown number.

I've been answering all of them the last month, so maybe I'm swaying things! Probably done 10 polls. I'm the mythical gen Xer with a landline who answers it.

[Yoho]

Just voted (UCP) at advanced poll super easy in and out.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1662089316422795268

https://twitter.com/user/status/1661834055313248258


Quito's Twitter has a few posts worth reading. It'll be interesting how this plays out amongst the pollsters. Someone is eating hats.

I think post the Nenshi election that mainstreet changed their polling methods. They used to be a straight phone dialer which in that election oversampled the anti-Nenshi crowd.

If you read some of Janet Brown’s stuff on her current model and methods is that she is actively trying reach out to groups that are under-sampled or in the online panels. She does this by focusing on phone polling and multiple phone calls to phones to try to maintain the randomness of the samples.

From the Baired article on Janet browns polling

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...94e44b504/amp/

I do true random sampling using live telephone interviewers,” she says, “Most other polls are based on online panels which include people who have chosen to join the panel.

“Part of my method is to connect with hard-to-reach people. We’ll attempt to call a phone number five times at different times of the day. We try to get the right balance of landline and cell phone users.”

Brown said: “I understand it’s shocking, but other polls have historically underestimated conservative voters, and my methodology does reach more conservative voters.”

When I read this quote from Brown I get flash backs to Mainstreets quote from the Smith /Nenshi election. It’s funny people still hack on mainstreet for that one without acknowledging he adjusted methods as a result of those results

None of this is saying she is wrong. As always a polling average made up of different methods of obtaining “random” samples is more likely to produce a better result than trying to pick the poll you think is right.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Just voted (UCP) at advanced poll super easy in and out.

Why did you choose to vote UCP?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Just voted (UCP) at advanced poll super easy in and out.

A pox on you and your house.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why did you choose to vote UCP?

Because you started a thread to get me banned.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Torture

That and that women are 50/50 on Notley/Smith when every other poll has shown a dominant lead for the NDP among women.
I hate to question a Janet Brown poll but something seems off.

How hard must it be to poll nowadays anyways, I never answer the phone for an unknown number.

Women are really conservative too. I think the assumptions that women and young people vote left is a dangerous one that the left takes for granted.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why did you choose to vote UCP?

Originally Posted by Yoho

Because you started a thread to get me banned.

GGG you gotta admit that was a pretty good response.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Women are really conservative too. I think the assumptions that women and young people vote left is a dangerous one that the left takes for granted.

Sure, of course there are conservative women, but I'm not making assumptions, I'm basing it on almost every other poll in Alberta during this election cycle that showed the NDP leading with young people, women, and those that had a post-secondary degree, and this Janet Brown poll showing different results, even from her own poll earlier in the campaign.

It's kind of like when Main Street had young people breaking for Bill Smith over Nenshi. Just doesn't add up.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

GGG you gotta admit that was a pretty good response.

I never thought I'd ever thank a Yoho post... but that honestly made me laugh out loud.

[btimbit]

lol yeah, that was good.

See what happens when you do more than just post tweets!

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

GGG you gotta admit that was a pretty good response.

The one time it's okay to quote a Yoho post. I had a chortle.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

What if they are rich, spoiled entitled kids who vote with their parents? They may be more politically invested. There may be more political talk around the dinner table. Voters aged 18-24 are different than general kids 18-24.

This is obviously anecdotal and YMMV, but in my experience, young people who are politically aware/active and thus more likely to vote tend to be liberal/progressive much more often than not, often going against their parents' conservative beliefs. This is why you see older conservatives angrily ranting about public schools and (especially) universities being "liberal indoctrination factories".

Has there been any municipal (Calgary), provincial, or federal election in the last ~20 years where a majority of voters aged 18-35 supported the conservative party/candidate?

[CaptainYooh]

I am 99% convinced that Yoho is PepsiFree. They want Yoho's tweets. They need Yoho's tweets!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

This is obviously anecdotal and YMMV, but in my experience, young people who are politically aware/active and thus more likely to vote tend to be liberal/progressive much more often than not, often going against their parents' conservative beliefs. This is why you see older conservatives angrily ranting about public schools and (especially) universities being "liberal indoctrination factories".

Has there been any municipal (Calgary), provincial, or federal election in the last ~20 years where a majority of voters aged 18-35 supported the conservative party/candidate?

There hasn't been but the numbers are closer than one might think. I'm trying to find them.

Edit: found this

https://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...-voter-turnout

Data released by Angus Reid last week suggested 49 per cent of men and 63 per cent of women aged 18 to 34 plan to back the NDP on May 29

Let's split that number. 18-24 i think kids arent voting at all and if they are it's still under parents influence, a lot of affluent families in Calgary. Then moreso 25-40 they are progressive and activists, volunteering, running for office etc... But again, the key is voters, You can have all the perceived progressive kids you want but if they can't be bothered to follow the issues or vote, then progressives are losing,