06-08-2023, 09:42 PM
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#1141
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Sask (sorry)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
He’s kinda clutch, isn’t he?
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He is, but I don’t have to like it since he was anti-clutch when he was here haha
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06-08-2023, 09:45 PM
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#1142
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Franchise Player
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Big W. Back on track. Go Panthers Go!
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I hate just about everyone and just about everything.
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06-08-2023, 09:49 PM
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#1143
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Lifetime Suspension
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I'm baffled why some are saying Vegas owned that game no they didn't, 2 PP goals off of horrible calls otherwise they didn't have much going.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hwy19man
That is correct.The Panthers are doing what the Habs did in 1993, win ten games in overtime.
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I don't see Florida trying that record.
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06-08-2023, 09:57 PM
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#1144
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
I'm baffled why some are saying Vegas owned that game no they didn't, 2 PP goals off of horrible calls otherwise they didn't have much going.
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They didn't "own" the game but they outplayed Florida.
They played worse than the first two games and were still leading for most of the game. It was Bobrovsky who was being forced to come up with most of the big saves, not the other way around.
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06-08-2023, 09:57 PM
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#1145
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
I'm baffled why some are saying Vegas owned that game no they didn't, 2 PP goals off of horrible calls otherwise they didn't have much going.
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Haha well I have to admit was watching it a bit here and a bit there, just felt like that. I'm always pretty pessimistic about everything so maybe it's that. But checked what the stats were saying and it does look like a pretty even game 5v5, Panthers actually better with the puck and high danger chances even. Vegas just capitalized on PP.
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06-08-2023, 09:58 PM
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#1146
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Lifetime Suspension
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^^ interesting chart. My eye test judged the game much more even.
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06-08-2023, 09:58 PM
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#1147
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
They didn't "own" the game but they outplayed Florida.
They played worse than the first two games and were still leading for most of the game. It was Bobrovsky who was being forced to come up with most of the big saves, not the other way around.
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How is this calculated? These stats don't seem to reflect that at all:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/gam...023&game=30413
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06-08-2023, 10:01 PM
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#1148
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: California
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06-08-2023, 10:03 PM
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#1149
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Lifetime Suspension
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How accurate is that calculation?
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06-08-2023, 10:04 PM
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#1150
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Pretty even game i thought.
Could be the TSN turning point for sure, that's a huge momentum boost to tie it late and then win in OT.
It's a series now.
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06-08-2023, 10:04 PM
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#1151
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
How accurate is that calculation?
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Well, they lost.
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06-08-2023, 10:10 PM
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#1152
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers
Well, they lost.
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I mean, it's a model. It's one person's way of attempting to quantify what we see with our eyes.
Hockey is a game filled with chaos. It's not like baseball where things can be much more accurately analyzed, and even then, there are wide variations in actual outcomes compared to expected outcomes.
The existence of that variance is why we enjoy sports.
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06-08-2023, 10:10 PM
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#1153
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
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I think all these advanced stats and predictions are flawed one way or the other, or rather the conclusions that people make of them are.
Notice for example how it this simulates over 100 times (who knows how many, maybe thousands) and statistically that would be significant but in reality the series is just seven games. The historic win % is interesting though, would be interesting to know in detail how it works.
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06-08-2023, 10:17 PM
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#1154
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Apr 2022
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saqe
I think all these advanced stats and predictions are flawed one way or the other, or rather the conclusions that people make of them are.
Notice for example how it this simulates over 100 times (who knows how many, maybe thousands) and statistically that would be significant but in reality the series is just seven games. The historic win % is interesting though, would be interesting to know in detail how it works.
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Yeah, it's interesting that the one you shared had a different perception of the game. You have to manipulate the chart to expected goals from Corsi (I don't really think Corsi is a great way of analyzing hockey), but it shows the game a lot more even than 74/26.
The fact that there are fairly wide ranges of analysis indicate that we don't understand well enough what causes goal suppression or creation with certainty. It doesn't mean the models are worthless. (Not directed at you, but the people who responded pedantically.)
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06-08-2023, 10:20 PM
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#1155
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
I mean, it's a model. It's one person's way of attempting to quantify what we see with our eyes.
Hockey is a game filled with chaos. It's not like baseball where things can be much more accurately analyzed, and even then, there are wide variations in actual outcomes compared to expected outcomes.
The existence of that variance is why we enjoy sports.
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I mean, it was a joke.
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06-08-2023, 10:21 PM
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#1156
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Pretty even game i thought.
Could be the TSN turning point for sure, that's a huge momentum boost to tie it late and then win in OT.
It's a series now.
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I thought it more or less even other than the fact that the Panthers were just shockingly bad on special teams.
Their PP and PK are atrocious and their discipline is a joke.
5-on-5 that was an even tilt.
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06-08-2023, 10:27 PM
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#1157
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
Yeah, it's interesting that the one you shared had a different perception of the game. You have to manipulate the chart to expected goals from Corsi (I don't really think Corsi is a great way of analyzing hockey), but it shows the game a lot more even than 74/26.
The fact that there are fairly wide ranges of analysis indicate that we don't understand well enough what causes goal suppression or creation with certainty. It doesn't mean the models are worthless. (Not directed at you, but the people who responded pedantically.)
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Yeah I think it's just like you said earlier about luck, it's kind of like with a coin you in theory have a 50/50 chance at both heads and tails but that only happens if you flip it an infinite amount of times. But nobody in reality does that so you always get some distortion.
Also the amount of variables to consider is always too much when you have something that deals with humans. Like what do you add to the equation when someone gets "hot" and scores at will etc. Large samples evens things out but not in seven games.
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06-08-2023, 10:31 PM
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#1158
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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Matthew Clutch-uk.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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06-08-2023, 10:32 PM
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#1159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saqe
Yeah I think it's just like you said earlier about luck, it's kind of like with a coin you in theory have a 50/50 chance at both heads and tails but that only happens if you flip it an infinite amount of times. But nobody in reality does that so you always get some distortion.
Also the amount of variables to consider is always too much when you have something that deals with humans. Like what do you add to the equation when someone gets "hot" and scores at will etc. Large samples evens things out but not in seven games.
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Bob’s lateral movement saves with his left pad, his blocker and a couple of shoulder saves would be valued higher in a model that contemplates the result stemming from average goaltending
Hill’s comparatively easy night in terms of the saves he made would be valued as lower in the model than the actual goals that were scored
The model makes sense in what it’s doing
Doesn’t matter in the real world obviously
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06-08-2023, 10:38 PM
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#1160
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Franchise Player
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I didn't see one second of this game...kids soccer and then my beer league game
Nice to see people talking about me still though
Can't really comment on deserve to win o meter...wins a win
5 games at least...I just don't see any way Florida wins 4 of 5
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