[SCF] Florida Panthers (EC-WC2) vs Vegas Golden Knights (WC-1)

[kipperiggy]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

He’s kinda clutch, isn’t he?

He is, but I don’t have to like it since he was anti-clutch when he was here haha

[memphusk]

Big W. Back on track. Go Panthers Go!

[zamler]

I'm baffled why some are saying Vegas owned that game no they didn't, 2 PP goals off of horrible calls otherwise they didn't have much going.

Originally Posted by hwy19man

That is correct.The Panthers are doing what the Habs did in 1993, win ten games in overtime.

I don't see Florida trying that record.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by zamler

I'm baffled why some are saying Vegas owned that game no they didn't, 2 PP goals off of horrible calls otherwise they didn't have much going.

They didn't "own" the game but they outplayed Florida.

They played worse than the first two games and were still leading for most of the game. It was Bobrovsky who was being forced to come up with most of the big saves, not the other way around.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by zamler

I'm baffled why some are saying Vegas owned that game no they didn't, 2 PP goals off of horrible calls otherwise they didn't have much going.

Haha well I have to admit was watching it a bit here and a bit there, just felt like that. I'm always pretty pessimistic about everything so maybe it's that. But checked what the stats were saying and it does look like a pretty even game 5v5, Panthers actually better with the puck and high danger chances even. Vegas just capitalized on PP.

[zamler]

^^ interesting chart. My eye test judged the game much more even.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by butterfly

They didn't "own" the game but they outplayed Florida.

They played worse than the first two games and were still leading for most of the game. It was Bobrovsky who was being forced to come up with most of the big saves, not the other way around.

How is this calculated? These stats don't seem to reflect that at all:


https://www.naturalstattrick.com/gam...023&game=30413

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Saqe

How is this calculated? These stats don't seem to reflect that at all:


https://www.naturalstattrick.com/gam...023&game=30413

https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2022030413

[zamler]

How accurate is that calculation?

[SuperMatt18]

Pretty even game i thought.

Could be the TSN turning point for sure, that's a huge momentum boost to tie it late and then win in OT.

It's a series now.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by zamler

How accurate is that calculation?

Well, they lost.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Well, they lost.

I mean, it's a model. It's one person's way of attempting to quantify what we see with our eyes.

Hockey is a game filled with chaos. It's not like baseball where things can be much more accurately analyzed, and even then, there are wide variations in actual outcomes compared to expected outcomes.

The existence of that variance is why we enjoy sports.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by butterfly

https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2022030413

I think all these advanced stats and predictions are flawed one way or the other, or rather the conclusions that people make of them are.


Notice for example how it this simulates over 100 times (who knows how many, maybe thousands) and statistically that would be significant but in reality the series is just seven games. The historic win % is interesting though, would be interesting to know in detail how it works.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Saqe

I think all these advanced stats and predictions are flawed one way or the other, or rather the conclusions that people make of them are.


Notice for example how it this simulates over 100 times (who knows how many, maybe thousands) and statistically that would be significant but in reality the series is just seven games. The historic win % is interesting though, would be interesting to know in detail how it works.

Yeah, it's interesting that the one you shared had a different perception of the game. You have to manipulate the chart to expected goals from Corsi (I don't really think Corsi is a great way of analyzing hockey), but it shows the game a lot more even than 74/26.

The fact that there are fairly wide ranges of analysis indicate that we don't understand well enough what causes goal suppression or creation with certainty. It doesn't mean the models are worthless. (Not directed at you, but the people who responded pedantically.)

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I mean, it's a model. It's one person's way of attempting to quantify what we see with our eyes.

Hockey is a game filled with chaos. It's not like baseball where things can be much more accurately analyzed, and even then, there are wide variations in actual outcomes compared to expected outcomes.

The existence of that variance is why we enjoy sports.

I mean, it was a joke.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Pretty even game i thought.

Could be the TSN turning point for sure, that's a huge momentum boost to tie it late and then win in OT.

It's a series now.

I thought it more or less even other than the fact that the Panthers were just shockingly bad on special teams.

Their PP and PK are atrocious and their discipline is a joke.

5-on-5 that was an even tilt.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Yeah, it's interesting that the one you shared had a different perception of the game. You have to manipulate the chart to expected goals from Corsi (I don't really think Corsi is a great way of analyzing hockey), but it shows the game a lot more even than 74/26.

The fact that there are fairly wide ranges of analysis indicate that we don't understand well enough what causes goal suppression or creation with certainty. It doesn't mean the models are worthless. (Not directed at you, but the people who responded pedantically.)

Yeah I think it's just like you said earlier about luck, it's kind of like with a coin you in theory have a 50/50 chance at both heads and tails but that only happens if you flip it an infinite amount of times. But nobody in reality does that so you always get some distortion.


Also the amount of variables to consider is always too much when you have something that deals with humans. Like what do you add to the equation when someone gets "hot" and scores at will etc. Large samples evens things out but not in seven games.

[FlamesAddiction]

Matthew Clutch-uk.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Yeah I think it's just like you said earlier about luck, it's kind of like with a coin you in theory have a 50/50 chance at both heads and tails but that only happens if you flip it an infinite amount of times. But nobody in reality does that so you always get some distortion.


Also the amount of variables to consider is always too much when you have something that deals with humans. Like what do you add to the equation when someone gets "hot" and scores at will etc. Large samples evens things out but not in seven games.

Bob’s lateral movement saves with his left pad, his blocker and a couple of shoulder saves would be valued higher in a model that contemplates the result stemming from average goaltending

Hill’s comparatively easy night in terms of the saves he made would be valued as lower in the model than the actual goals that were scored

The model makes sense in what it’s doing

Doesn’t matter in the real world obviously

[dino7c]

I didn't see one second of this game...kids soccer and then my beer league game

Nice to see people talking about me still though

Can't really comment on deserve to win o meter...wins a win

5 games at least...I just don't see any way Florida wins 4 of 5