It's death or a minimum 5 year prison sentence. Due to the nature of the intel compromised, damage to international relationships, and likely allied Ukrainians who will lose their lives over this... guessing the court martial sentence will not be light on him.
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It's death or a minimum 5 year prison sentence. Due to the nature of the intel compromised, damage to international relationships, and likely allied Ukrainians who will lose their lives over this... guessing the court martial will not go lightly on him.
Wanted some likes, ended up executed. Rough day.
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Johnny eats garbage and isn’t 100% committed.
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Maybe there will be some good to come from the leaks. It might force Europe and allies to double down on support if they think the leaks give Russia an advantage.
It's also interesting that one of the leaked documents said that only 2 European countries have not assisted Ukraine (Austria and Malta), so even countries that have been optically trying to look neutral, are in fact not. This is especially noteworthy with Serbia who has tried hard to maintain it's relationship with Russia through all this and hasn't participated in sanctions. If the leak is accurate, they were planning to, or already have sent lethal aid to Ukraine. This could put them in a position where they need to cozy up to the West more, which in turn changes the political landscape of regions fairly significantly.
William Spaniel (who makes high quality if rather dry videos) makes a pretty good point about hypothetical Chinese military aid to Russia on this video: it probably wouldn't be cost effective for China.
The Russian military is corrupt and inefficient, losing large amounts of materiel to corruption, bad leadership and poor training.
The idea that China would like to support Russia is largely based on the idea that it would benefit China to prolong the war so that it will further drain western resources.
However, if China sends 1B worth of equipment to Russia, and only let's say 800M of that actually ends up on the front, and then the west can counter that with 500M worth of equipment because the Ukrainian military is less corrupt and less inefficient in it's usage of materiel, then the numbers don't add up for China.
Giving large scale military support to Russia could very easily end up draining Chinese resources at least as much or even much more than it would drain the west.
Which I think is fairly obviously a real risk for China, if not an inevitability. I hadn't thought about it from that angle, so I thought I'd share.
(There's more on the topic in the video.)
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A really interesting breakdown of the Intel documents that were leaked.
Quote:
Russian brigades mauled
Several of the documents, which appear to date largely from February and March, tend to confirm that Russia has committed the vast majority of its army battalions to its war on in Ukraine. Despite the mobilization last autumn, which potentially added 300,000 soldiers to the Russian ranks, a significant minority of these battalions are described as “combat ineffective” – short of men and equipment.
One document says that 527 out of 544 available Russian battalions are committed to the operation, and 474 are already inside Ukraine. A substantial number are deployed in the south of the country – with an estimated 23,000 personnel in Zaporizhzhia and another 15,000 in Kherson. That suggests the Russians expect any Ukrainian offensive to target that region.
But in Donetsk, for example, 19 out of 91 battalions were adjudged as “combat ineffective.”
Russia still has vast inventories of hardware, but the documents suggest that some of the best has already been lost, and older, less reliable armor is being dusted off. One says that Russia continued to fall behind stated goals for replenishing equipment and personnel, and was incorporating “older, less accurate munitions systems.”
The documents provide some startling estimates, suggesting that at one point early this year Russia had 419 tanks in theater, but had lost a staggering 2,048 during the conflict. They also suggest that at that time, Ukraine had more armored personnel carriers (APCs) and fighting vehicles in the field than did Russia.
It paints a picture of both militaries heading towards a stalemate, although Ukraine seems to be faring better in terms of land equipment and forces.
I really wonder what could be done realistically to give Ukraine an edge. A boat load of HIMARS ammo, combine with some new anti-air systems? I so want Ukraine to not lose its momentum.
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I personally don't think the West is doing enough to help Ukraine win outright and whether we choose to believe it or not, there are entities that prefer a slow bleed of the Russian war machine/economy versus an outright win. A fine line indeed. While perhaps that might benefit us all long term, Ukrainians literally pay in blood the longer this goes on. If the west is maxed out what they are going to do because "nukes", then I'd much rather see a decisive push than this slow bleeding which costs innocent UA lives.
Having said that, I take solace with what appears to be the UAF accumulating and stockpiling for their upcoming offensive. At the moment it appears to be a (bloody) stalemate, but when the time is right, I honestly think it will be a show of force the russians will be facing. Whether it's truly enough remains to be seen, but all we can do is hope for the best and trust that NATO and UA planners know what they are doing.
I really hope the AA situation gets rectified for Ukraine. Because of this is the best that NATO allies can do, then god help us.
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A really interesting breakdown of the Intel documents that were leaked.
It paints a picture of both militaries heading towards a stalemate, although Ukraine seems to be faring better in terms of land equipment and forces.
I really wonder what could be done realistically to give Ukraine an edge. A boat load of HIMARS ammo, combine with some new anti-air systems? I so want Ukraine to not lose its momentum.
Ammo, lots and lots of ammo for the weapon systems they have.
Air Defense systems, the ability to neuter the Russian Airforce will set them up for success
Tanks/IFVs, the Russians can not compete against a modern mobile fighting force.
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A really interesting breakdown of the Intel documents that were leaked.
It paints a picture of both militaries heading towards a stalemate, although Ukraine seems to be faring better in terms of land equipment and forces.
I really wonder what could be done realistically to give Ukraine an edge. A boat load of HIMARS ammo, combine with some new anti-air systems? I so want Ukraine to not lose its momentum.
Give them enough IFV's, tanks etc. to raise full new mechanized brigades. The stuff they need to make breakthroughs and gain ground.
And yeah, I think it was already pretty obvious that what you see in Ukraine is the current state of Russian military in all it's glory. The only reason they mostly aren't drafting more men is because they can't utilize more. There was never anything "partial" about their mobilization.
The current force is the current limit of their logistics, their stockpiles, and their current military production.
Logistics tend to get somewhat better over time if things settle, and as they keep turning into an increasintly totalitarian state, they will likely try to convert more and more of their society into something that will directly feed the warmachine, but it's seems like the sanctions are currently doing a pretty good job of limiting their ability to produce new materiel, or getting access to materiel produced abroad.
