Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Monahammer]

I find the tactics of flames management and ownership very repetitive, yes. This has been my central point for months now.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I find the tactics of flames management and ownership very repetitive, yes. This has been my central point for months now.

Hasn't that been refuted with actual facts about 300 times?

[Lewis_D]

Flames are in a playoff spot two games out from the 4 Nations Break. This team has exceeded expectations by all accounts, they have a fantastic rookie goalie and a handful of promising young players. Don't you want to see them get rewarded with playoff hockey & be able to cheer them on down the stretch? Can't we just save the mushy middle complains until the offseason?

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Setting up for the worst possible outcome:

- hold assets at max value instead of selling
- Potentially resign older players to long term contracts
- Barely miss playoffs this year
- Give up our 1st to montreal.

I get it and I worry about the same thing.
It's playoffs or bust at this point this season.


I do wonder if the Flames miss the playoffs this season (which is still a very real possibility), how much that impacts re-signing Andersson, from both sides.
I will say that Conroy has to say he wants to re-sign Andersson no matter what. The second that narrative changes, other teams smell blood in the water and will low ball the hell out of Conroy. Just look at JT Miller.


I do also wonder with our recent acquisitions in Frost and Farabee, if that makes some of these older vets a bit more expendable in the offseason. F and F have some control and now we have another younger center.

Does that make guys like Kadri and Coleman a bit easier to trade?

I'm not so certain that the roster turnover is complete. I think it's just being held off while they're in the playoff race. And ofcourse Conroy wants to control the narrative.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Again with Kadri and Coleman it's not just a team decision. Those players have trade protection and have set up their lives in Calgary. So the team has to both decide they want to trade them, and the players also have to agree.
Coleman to me is also the perfect guy to have around as a mentor to younger players. I would not be in a rush to trade him at all anytime soon.
Kadri I would be open to - but certainly not in a deal for Casey f'n Middlestadt.

[MacDaddy77]

Playoffs or bust but Conroy inherited the decision Treliving made on the 2025 1st. He has done an excellent job acquiring additional picks to mitigate that lost one so we aren't in a position of a setback because of it.

2 games until 4 nations break. 9 games until trade deadline, currently tied with Van for WC 2, 5 pts back of Colorado for WC 1 and 6 pts up on top 10 pick.

At this point it appears to be a 3 horse race for #3 in pacific and WC 2 between Flames/Van/LA. (LA with 3 games in hand currently) I think the Flames make it in as WC 2 and play WPG

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Again with Kadri and Coleman it's not just a team decision. Those players have trade protection and have set up their lives in Calgary. So the team has to both decide they want to trade them, and the players also have to agree.
Coleman to me is also the perfect guy to have around as a mentor to younger players. I would not be in a rush to trade him at all anytime soon.
Kadri I would be open to - but certainly not in a deal for Casey f'n Middlestadt.

Agree with everything. Only thing I’m not sure is if flames could even get a “Casey fn middlestad” in return for kadri. The rumours are he will only consider Toronto. That gives kadri and Toronto all the power. Toronto would probably need his contract heavily retained and probably wouldn’t offer much for the compensation. In my view kadri wants to stay and I doubt they would get anything close to what he is worth with retention from Toronto .

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Agree with everything. Only thing I’m not sure is if flames could even get a “Casey fn middlestad” in return for kadri. The rumours are he will only consider Toronto. That gives kadri and Toronto all the power. Toronto would probably need his contract heavily retained and probably wouldn’t offer much for the compensation. In my view kadri wants to stay and I doubt they would get anything close to what he is worth with retention from Toronto .

.... And the only way GMCC has that conversation with Kadri is if a team blows him away with an offer. So if what you are saying is true, and it probably is, Kadri won't ever be asked to waive and GMBT is just spamming phone lines.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

This means virtually nothing considering how often this team rises to the occasion against better teams.

I'd be more concerned if they had a line up of down and out clubs playing out the string.

Good opponents will keep them engaged.

Wolf also seems to relish facing superstars and top teams.

I wanted to test this statement, so I went back and counted the wins and losses against the top 10 teams, bottom 10 teams and middle 11 teams in the league as of todays standings. ( for simplicities sake I just counted the Flames 7 OTLs as losses, since that's that they would be in the playoffs).

The Flames have played 15 games against top 10 opponents.

They've won 6 and lost 9.

A win percentage of 0.400% which is fine, but two of those wins were against slumping Florida and Edmonton earlier in the year. If you eliminate those games from the tally they are at a win percentage of 0.307% (4/13)



results against the middle 11 teams.

they've won 8 and lost 9 or 0.470%


If you look at games against the bottom 10 teams.

The Flames have won 12 and lost 9, with a win percentage of 0.571% against bottom 10 teams.

To me the Flames success hasn't come from beating the good teams, its from consistently beating the bad teams.


That said, I agree it's not an exact science, and doesn't have any real baring on how the Flames will perform in their 11 games remaining against top 10 teams. Or in the playoffs for that matter.

It's just interesting to look back on the season.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

January is over and I'd say the Flames played better than expected in the second half of the month.

Update to my schedule prediction heading into the trade deadline:

Expected Wins: Sharks (H)
Likely Wins: Red Wings (H), Kraken (H)
Likely Losses: Kraken (A), Flyers (A)
Expected Losses: Leafs (H), Avalanche (H), Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H),
Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H),
*Defied expectation

-----------

With January done the Flames now have the 17th hardest remaining schedule. Vancouver has 14th, Blues have 21st, Kings have 16th. This is good for the playoffs push as the Canucks now show a harder remaining schedule and we are on equal footing with the Kings while all three teams are within 2 points in the standings.

February has a tough challenge:

• Wolf needs to stand tall against a surging Red Wings team
• Vladar needs to survive a back-to-back game in Seattle with a tired team in front of him
• Back home to play the Leafs, Avs, and another Kraken game (do all of these games go to Wolf knowing the break is coming up???)
• ---2 week break
• Home game against the Sharks
• Start of the difficult 6 game road trip with 5 playoff contenders.

From a top10 pick perspective, the wave of East teams climbing over the Flames has slowed down a bit but there is still only a 5 point gap between the Flames and drafting in the top 10.

With the trade last night, I doubt we see much more action going into the trade deadline. Even if we get pummeled in the road trip, I doubt we switch into seller mode. In my mind, the only decision up in the air would be around going out to find another D or not.

Anyway.... Let's do an update!

Schedule to Trade Deadline:

• Expected Wins: Sharks (H)
• Likely Wins: Kraken (H)
• Likely Losses: Flyers (A)
• Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Capitals (A), Lightning (A), Panthers (A), Hurricane (A), Stars (A)

• Confirmed Wins: Sabres (H), Wild (A)*, Ducks (H), Kraken (A)*,
• Confirmed Losses: Jets (A), Capitals (H), Red Wings (H)*, Leafs (H),

*Defied expectation

Standings update:
The team is still in WC2 but we are now tied with the Canucks (the tiebreakers are in the Flames favour). At this point the Canucks are the only threat to a playoff spot as the Blues have dropped away and are 6 points back. The Flames have the 16th hardest remaining schedule, Canucks have the 19th hardest, Kings have the 21st hardest, and the Blues are 23rd hardest.

From a "top10 draft" perspective, Flames have dropped down to 17th overall, in a 3-way tie with the Canucks and Blue Jackets. The Islanders are currently hot and catching up but the other mushy middle teams have cooled off (Canadiens, Rangers, UHC, Blues, Penguins, and Flyers) and there is now a 6 point gap needed to overcome for these teams to pass the Flames. The top10 pick is not looking likely but we did just watch the Blues go from a playoff position push to a top10 pick position.

These next 9 games are going to be tough.

[Icon]

Originally Posted by Wolven

These next 9 games are going to be tough.

And should clarify what this team is.

Win 6or7 out of 9 and we're a playoff team who can be a threat to win a round or two.
Lose 6or7 of 9 and we're probably a 9th/10th place team (again).

So of course we'll win 4 or 5 to keep everyone guessing.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Ya Conroy and Treliving are not the same. In Brad’s first three years he basically collectively did the following

Out
Two first round picks
Six second round picks
Three third round picks
A 5th round pick
One 6th round pick

In
Four 2nd round picks
A 3rd round pick
A 4th round pick

Conroy

Out
A 2nd
A 4th
A 5th
A 7th

In

Three first round picks
Two second round picks
Three 3rd round picks
A 4th round pick
Two 5th round picks
A 6th round pick

In order for Conroy to be anything like Brad’s first 3 years he would have to: trade 5 first round picks, trade 3 2nd round picks and trade 5 third round picks and not get any picks back in return.

Conroy had a heck of a lot more available to trade than Treleving. I’m not saying he’s not done more with it, but the pattern so far is the same. Ship out the older UFAs and then start trading away futures to build the roster.

It’s not really that unique of a process, and I know for whatever reason, mentioning BT triggers a few folks, but the important part of the plan for long term success is the next one… and whether Conroy remains patient and jumps on opportunities like he did with the Frost/Farabee deal or starts getting aggressive and unloads futures too quickly.

It’s not a criticism.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I get it sure ... but isn't that situational?

Conroy took over a team that missed the playoffs and had 7 UFAs who seemed to want out.

If he didn't end up with more draft capital in this 18 month window than his predecessor he's be a lunatic!

Yes but Conroy has not made any trades like the following trades

3rd rounder for Bollig
2nd rounder for Elliott
3rd rounder for Smith
Stone for a 3rd and a 5th

Not including the Dougie Hamilton trade because he was young but he was worth a bunch of picks. Same with the Hamonic trade. So Brad did not have the same number of expiring UFAs but he also found the ability to trade picks. Conroy has basically avoided that beyond a perplexing trade with San Jose last year (albeit only for a 5th) and the frost/farabee trade who are two young cost controlled players that he got for relatively cheap.

A Brad equivalent in my mind would be using the draft picks to go find a modern Hamilton and Hamonic. I doubt that Conroy will ever do that.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Yes but Conroy has not made any trades like the following trades

3rd rounder for Bollig
2nd rounder for Elliott
3rd rounder for Smith
Stone for a 3rd and a 5th

Not including the Dougie Hamilton trade because he was young but he was worth a bunch of picks. Same with the Hamonic trade. So Brad did not have the same number of expiring UFAs but he also found the ability to trade picks. Conroy has basically avoided that beyond a perplexing trade with San Jose last year (albeit only for a 5th) and the frost/farabee trade who are two young cost controlled players that he got for relatively cheap.

A Brad equivalent in my mind would be using the draft picks to go find a modern Hamilton and Hamonic. I doubt that Conroy will ever do that.

Even that is situational.

But I hope you're right.

We haven't seen Conroy in a buy position at a deadline yet.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

Conroy had a heck of a lot more available to trade than Treleving. I’m not saying he’s not done more with it, but the pattern so far is the same. Ship out the older UFAs and then start trading away futures to build the roster.

It’s not really that unique of a process, and I know for whatever reason, mentioning BT triggers a few folks, but the important part of the plan for long term success is the next one… and whether Conroy remains patient and jumps on opportunities like he did with the Frost/Farabee deal or starts getting aggressive and unloads futures too quickly.

It’s not a criticism.

It is not the same at all. He has not trade out any futures of any value. Only trade is the Frost/Farabee trade.

Brad traded a 2nd for a 22 year old former first rounder who had a career high of 20 points.

Conroy traded a 2nd for a 24 year old former first rounder who has a career high of 50 points and a 25 year old former 1st rounder who has a career high of 46 points.

Those are not the same at all.

[Robbob]

I went back and looked at the top 10 scorers for each of the years gong back to the to lock out. I was curious to see, out of the cup winners, how many the home grown talent made it to the top 10 playoff scoring for that year. Figure that is a good way to measure the impact of a player and see where they were drafted.

Carolina - 1st Staal (2)
Anaheim - 4th Getzlaf (19), 6th Perry (28)
Detroit - 1st Zetterberg (210), 4th Datsyuk (171), 6th Frazen (97)
Pittsburgh - 1st Malkin (2), 2nd Crosby (1)
Chicago - 2nd Toews (3), 3rd Kane (1)
Boston - 1st Krejci (63), 5th Bergeron (45), 6th Marchand (71)
LA - 1st Brown (13), 2nd Kopitar (11), 5th Doughty (3)
Chicago - 2nd Kane (1), 5th Bickell (41)
LA - 1st Kopitar (11), 6th Doughty (3)
Chicago - 2nd Kane (1), 4th (Toews), 5th Keith (54)
Pittsburgh - 7th Crosby (1), 8th Malkin (2)
Pittsburgh - 1st Malkin (2), 2nd Crosby (1), 4th Guentzel (77)
Washington - 1st Kuznetsov (26), 2nd Ovechkin (1), 3rd Backstrom (4)
St. Louis - 4th Schwartz (14), 6th Pietrangelo (4), 8th Tarasenko (16)
Tampa - 1st Kucherov (58), 2nd Point (79), 5th Hedman (2)
Tampa - 1st Kucherov (58), 2nd Point (79), 3rd Stamkos (1), 4th Hedman (2), 5th Killorn (77)
Colorado - 3rd Makar (4), 5th Rantanen (10), 6th Mackinnon (1)
Vegas - no one, although you maybe could point to some expansion draft players
Florida - 5th Barkov (2), 10th Lundell (12)

Obviously over the last couple decades there would be a lot of repeat players on the top 10 scorers list. Out of the 190 players, 124 were unique. A player like Crosby showed up 8 times. Out of those 124 players 44 were draft top 10, 28 outside the top 10 but still in the first round, 45 out side the first round, and 6 undrafted.

What this exercise has shown me is how bad the Oilers have effed up their window. A lot of the top 10 picks won their cups in their ELC or shortly after.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

It is not the same at all. He has not trade out any futures of any value. Only trade is the Frost/Farabee trade.

Brad traded a 2nd for a 22 year old former first rounder who had a career high of 20 points.

Conroy traded a 2nd for a 24 year old former first rounder who has a career high of 50 points and a 25 year old former 1st rounder who has a career high of 46 points.

Those are not the same at all.

You're missing the point.

We're at the same stage compared to the last rebuild -- where the team started outperforming expectations -- when Treleving started trading futures to build his team. Conroy is there now depending on how this season ends.

Does he remain patient and take advantage of opportunities, or does he start trading substantial futures and sign big ticket free agents to kick off the competitive window? This is where the decisions get tougher.

Maybe Conroy will make his own Lazar trade for a second in a couple of years. Lots of GMs do. Lots of folks are also talking about wanting him to trade for Cozens as well. I'm on board with that, depending on the costs, but it's a very risky move as the guy could very well be broken and never live up to expectations or his contract.

If he makes that trade, does he become as valuable as Hamilton was to the team? Or does he end up like Hamonic?

That's the type of trade that'll define Conroy in 10 years, not so much the ones he's made to date.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Icon

And should clarify what this team is.

Win 6or7 out of 9 and we're a playoff team who can be a threat to win a round or two.
Lose 6or7 of 9 and we're probably a 9th/10th place team (again).

So of course we'll win 4 or 5 to keep everyone guessing.

I think that if they win 5 of these next 9 that this is a good outcome. Right now my expectation is 3.

Also worth noting: Looking at the Canucks schedule up to the trade deadline they have Sharks, Leafs, VGK, UHC, Kings, Ducks, Kraken, Ducks, Wild. Their road trip looks considerably easier than ours.

The Flames will need to win 5 or 6 just to stay on pace.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The Flames have not used that strategy under Conroy though. So there is not really anything to worry about in that regard. He has a pretty simple strategy, trade pending UFAs for futures, keep veterans who are not pending UFAs so the young players have someone to learn from and the Flames don’t end up with years and years of crap like almost every rebuild and when it makes sense make targeted trades for young NHL players that fit the age category he is trying to build around.

Conroy has not made a single trade of the type that you are worried about.

Sure he did. He tried very hard to keep Lindholm and Hanafin. He only traded those guys when he was out of options. This is the first time we have had a sniff of success and he is in buy mode. I appreciate that he is targeting younger guys. But these types of moves are more likely to keep us mediocre then take us a big step forward.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Sure he did. He tried very hard to keep Lindholm and Hanafin. He only traded those guys when he was out of options.

You mean, he made them contract offers, and when they wouldn't budge on their ridiculous asking price, he traded them. He still had the option of meeting their demands, but did not.