GT: Canadian Federal Election 2019

[FlamesAddiction]

I am surprised that so many people are down on Sheer. He lead the party to a very substantial increase in seats and made the Conservatives a strong opposition in Parliament.

Beating an incumbent is difficult and despite the dirt on Trudeau, the party is not viewed nearly as negatively outside of Western Canada. If the dirt on Trudeau wasn't enough to change people's minds, there isn't anything Sheer could do to change that. If anything, people get sick of bringing up the same thing over and over. They want a leader and party to make themselves look good by building themselves up, not tearing others down.

Compare it to Trump in the U.S. You can tear him up all day, but all it will do is make people who like him, hate your side more. If the Conservatives want to win, they need to pretend Trudeau doesn't even exist and sell Canadians on their platform.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Which is, of course, not true looking back to 2011. The NDP gathered 30% of the popular vote, directly benefitting from the struggles of the LPC who fell to 18%.

While I agree that you can't just lump the Liberals into the left, when they fail, they lose significant numbers to the NDP. "There aren't all that many left/center voters in the LPC" is an incorrect statement.

I think what last night showed is that the true, diehard progressive vote probably sits at around 20% in this country, and there's maybe another soft-progressive/strategic-progressive bloc that sits around 10-15%.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Which is, of course, not true looking back to 2011. The NDP gathered 30% of the popular vote, directly benefitting from the struggles of the LPC who fell to 18%.

While I agree that you can't just lump the Liberals into the left, when they fail, they lose significant numbers to the NDP. "There aren't all that many left/center voters in the LPC" is an incorrect statement.

From their usual 15-20%, up to 30% in an election where the LPC got hammered, and the Bloc didn't do well either (and the Greens were a non-factor). So pretty much an absolute best-case scenario, and they were only able to attract an extra 10-12%.

I think that makes my point - which was a rebuttal to the argument someone made that most Canadians are center-left.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

By here, do you mean Alberta? Then sure, because there are plenty of reasons why Albertans won't vote liberal.

But nationally? Just look at Ontario. It is largely center/right. But social conservatism is a non-starter, so LPC is the obvious (and only) choice. That is the problem for the CPC.

First, I suspect you are overestimating Ontario conservatism. IMO any time conservatives get in there, it's been a reaction against perceived poor Liberal government, but not necessarily against liberal "values".

Also, you seem to say centre-right doesn't include social conservatism. That may be a narrower definition than I'm using. In any event, I think that, as long as climate change, immigration, and tax policy are right-left issues, Ontario is not as centre-right as you think. Especially in the larger cities.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

2) while vote splitting is a concern, the social conservatives are concentrated in a relatively small number of ridings - particularly rural and western. They would only be a threat to win a limited number of seats, and wouldn't pose any significant drain in any of the urban ridings, which are the tightly contested ones anyway.

Agree with that post 100% - any hint of social conservatism is going to bury the party nationally.

And your point on vote splitting is the the big thing I think, vote splitting probably shouldn't be a concern.

The PPC won what... 1% of the vote overall, and I don't think they finished higher than 4th in any of the ridings in Alberta or Saskatchewan. CPC had 69% of the popular vote in Alberta, and 64% in Saskatchewan, they can afford to lose the true "Social Right Wing" voters and still be okay.

So even if they were to lose say 10% of their base of true social conservatives in Alberta and Saskatchewan. They probably still have more than enough of a base to win the same seats they won this time but would have a much better chance to win seats in BC, Ontario, and the east coast.

And in Ontario where it's likely their biggest opportunity they aren't that far behind, they lost the popular vote 33.2% to 41.4%. Issue was Scheer left enough of a question mark around the social rights that there was enough fear that the CPC would go full Trump post election.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's early. The majority of conservative voters want nothing to do with social conservatism, and the CPC is going to hear it from their constituents

Yup, have had many conversations already with Greg McLean, my MP, and have told him that Scheer has got to go. He admitted that I was not the first to speak of misgivings about Scheer.

[PepsiFree]

I believe most of the left/left/centre/centre/centre/right/right/etc conversation is just subjective semantics anyway.

Canada is a centrist nation, period. We are agreeable to certain elements from both the left and the right, but very much like a path down the middle.

I firmly believe that if the CPC split and a new socially conservative party formed, Canada would be better for it. We almost need parties like the NDP/Green Party to have a small base and give people out of step with the majority of Canada a reasonable option or "voice." The right is missing that.

Should the CPC no longer find itself required to cater to the far right individuals, which I believe even the majority of CPC voters want, it would almost definitely gain more votes from current Liberal supports.

This election is a prime example of why two strong centrist parties is a must. The Liberals did not deserve to win, even as a minority. Having a CPC without the fringe elements would have ensured that, just as a strong Liberal party was able to take over when the CPC fell out of favour.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

First, I suspect you are overestimating Ontario conservatism. IMO any time conservatives get in there, it's been a reaction against perceived poor Liberal government, but not necessarily against liberal "values".

Also, you seem to say centre-right doesn't include social conservatism. That may be a narrower definition than I'm using. In any event, I think that, as long as climate change, immigration, and tax policy are right-left issues, Ontario is not as centre-right as you think. Especially in the larger cities.

Center/right definitely does NOT include social conservatism. Well, in current context anyway. Of course the lines can change over time, but the primary categorizations are economic conservatism and social conservatism. Social conservatism is widely viewed as 'far right'. And those that are more socially progressive are usually called progressive conservatives, or Red Tories in the old days, or more center/right.

[White Out 403]

I said over and over again... if there was a centre right Canadian party that advocated for labour union peace and had other right wing policies I would have voted for them. The NDP pissed off a lot of unionized people like myself who support pipelines and other work/labour.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Center/right definitely does NOT include social conservatism. Well, in current context anyway. Of course the lines can change over time, but the primary categorizations are economic conservatism and social conservatism. Social conservatism is widely viewed as 'far right'. And those that are more socially progressive are usually called progressive conservatives, or Red Tories in the old days, or more center/right.

I mean that depends. You get some doofus libertarians in the mix and the economic right definitely starts to look a bit unpalatable to most sensible people.

[AltaGuy]

Even having the pipeline issue front and center in the Cons' platform hurts them a ton: for many centrist and center-right voters in ON and Eastern Canada, the Cons were viewed as a regional angsty Alberta party again. A Bloc for Alberta.

While it is very much true that it is a national concern, it would also behoove Conservative strategists to realize that when BC, ON, and QC economies are all doing quite well, an angry regional party is not very appealing. The messaging was poor.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Center/right definitely does NOT include social conservatism. Well, in current context anyway. Of course the lines can change over time, but the primary categorizations are economic conservatism and social conservatism. Social conservatism is widely viewed as 'far right'. And those that are more socially progressive are usually called progressive conservatives, or Red Tories in the old days, or more center/right.

The categories are getting a bit fluid however. Climate change is seen on the left as a social issue and on the right as mostly an economic one.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I believe most of the left/left/centre/centre/centre/right/right/etc conversation is just subjective semantics anyway.

Canada is a centrist nation, period. We are agreeable to certain elements from both the left and the right, but very much like a path down the middle.

I firmly believe that if the CPC split and a new socially conservative party formed, Canada would be better for it. We almost need parties like the NDP/Green Party to have a small base and give people out of step with the majority of Canada a reasonable option or "voice." The right is missing that.

Should the CPC no longer find itself required to cater to the far right individuals, which I believe even the majority of CPC voters want, it would almost definitely gain more votes from current Liberal supports.

This election is a prime example of why two strong centrist parties is a must. The Liberals did not deserve to win, even as a minority. Having a CPC without the fringe elements would have ensured that, just as a strong Liberal party was able to take over when the CPC fell out of favour.

Exactly what I think and was trying to say.

I think it's time for the CPC to move to a full center/right stance. And let the social conservatives restart the Reform party (or whatever they want).

That would set up a situation where we would have two centrist parties (one leaning left and one leaning right), with 3, more extreme parties (two to the left and one to the right).

IMO, this would be a better situation.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

From their usual 15-20%, up to 30% in an election where the LPC got hammered, and the Bloc didn't do well either (and the Greens were a non-factor). So pretty much an absolute best-case scenario, and they were only able to attract an extra 10-12%.

I think that makes my point - which was a rebuttal to the argument someone made that most Canadians are center-left.

I honestly don't know if the Conservatives can win a majority anymore unless the Liberals go wildly in the tank like they did in 2011.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I believe most of the left/left/centre/centre/centre/right/right/etc conversation is just subjective semantics anyway.

Canada is a centrist nation, period. We are agreeable to certain elements from both the left and the right, but very much like a path down the middle.

I firmly believe that if the CPC split and a new socially conservative party formed, Canada would be better for it. We almost need parties like the NDP/Green Party to have a small base and give people out of step with the majority of Canada a reasonable option or "voice." The right is missing that.

Should the CPC no longer find itself required to cater to the far right individuals, which I believe even the majority of CPC voters want, it would almost definitely gain more votes from current Liberal supports.

This election is a prime example of why two strong centrist parties is a must. The Liberals did not deserve to win, even as a minority. Having a CPC without the fringe elements would have ensured that, just as a strong Liberal party was able to take over when the CPC fell out of favour.

Well i think you technically have your social right party with a role that the PPC should be playing.

But I think having a french canadian with his home riding in Quebec also causes that party to not really perform well with the true Socially Right conservatives in AB/Sask.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Exactly what I think and was trying to say.

I think it's time for the CPC to move to a full center/right stance. And let the social conservatives restart the Reform party (or whatever they want).

That would set up a situation where we would have two centrist parties (one leaning left and one leaning right), with 3, more extreme parties (two to the left and one to the right).

IMO, this would be a better situation.

I think UCP thinks this would destroy them a la Kim Campbell.

In any event, I think it would take a while to get voter confidence that the UCP was truly socially centrist. Maybe a leader not from the west would help. It's been a while.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I honestly don't know if the Conservatives can win a majority anymore unless the Liberals go wildly in the tank like they did in 2011.

If it's being run by social conservatives, then sure.

But Canada has voted in multiple conservative majorities, so making an absolute statement like that is silly, IMO.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Well i think you technically have your social right party with a role that the PPC should be playing.

But I think having a french canadian with his home riding in Quebec also causes that party to not really perform well with the true Socially Right conservatives in AB/Sask.

This is true. Sadly.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Facebook is for old people and weirdos.

My wife would tell you I’m over qualified.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think UCP thinks this would destroy them a la Kim Campbell.

In any event, I think it would take a while to get voter confidence that the UCP was truly socially centrist. Maybe a leader not from the west would help. It's been a while.

The next leader HAS to be from the east (including Ontario). Any western candidate, no matter how progressive, would be viewed, rightly or wrongly, as same old, same old.