The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Sanders is surging in Quinnipac/Ipsos national polls. Now has a 9 point lead on Biden. He also leads among all of the Democratic candidates against Trump at +18% in a potential Presidential election matchup. Some posters might be listening too much to the corporate messaging or allowing their own personal preferences to under-estimating his electability. This has not been the first set of polls that have shown this.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227068915982925824

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227035618531848193

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...rce=reddit.com

We all know the nominee is going to be Bloomberg. Give him enough time and enough ads and people will eventually consider him the front-runner. Sucks, but that's how people work. Out of sight, out of mind. Constantly on my TV with strong messaging? I like him!

Could be worse though. Bloomberg is a centrist who could easily sway a lot of the independent/moderate republican vote. Bernie would still alienate a large portion of that group based on his policies.

Let's do it! Billionaire against incumbent billionaire millionaire??? Hard to say without tax returns. At least Bloomberg could challenge Trump on the one thing he says he is and that people voted for: Being a good businessman.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The GOP, Trump, have been promoting Bernie all along, he is clearly their preferred candidate and they have purposely held off attacking him and done everything in their power to get him as the Dem's candidate.

The smear against Bernie is not he's a socialist the smear is his policies will require a massive tax rise for average americans, massive, Trump will happily claim and be believed that a vote for Bernie is a vote for 15% across the board tax increases along with massive cuts to the military.

Not really. The marginal tax rates under his platform are identical for anyone earning under $250K; the only difference is a 4% health care surtax. For most people, that surtax merely brings them back to roughly where they were before Trump's tax cuts. And they get health care coverage to boot.

Now whether you think that will actually pay for his plan is another matter, but Americans haven't proven to be all that worried about deficits.

[icecube]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Sanders is surging in Quinnipac/Ipsos national polls. Now has a 9 point lead on Biden. He also leads among all of the Democratic candidates against Trump at +18% in a potential Presidential election matchup. Some posters might be listening too much to the corporate messaging or allowing their own personal preferences to under-estimating his electability. This has not been the first set of polls that have shown this.

Yup. The media will keep hammering that drum all the way up until election day to despite what the polling evidence suggests. They would rather have the fascist racist guy who keeps things cozy for the rich then any sort of social democratic reforms.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Some posters have also forgotten what Hillary's lead around this time in 2016 looked like. The hypothetical of voting for Bernie is not the same as actually voting for him. Bernie's chances are still tied to economic collapse, without it he'll lose.

She didn't have one. Here are the Clinton Quinnipac polls from Feb. 2016 vs the various GOP candidates:

Clinton (44%) vs. Trump (43%)

Clinton (43%) vs. Cruz (46%)

Clinton (41%) vs. Rubio (48%)

Clinton (39%)vs. Kasich (47%)

Clinton (43%) vs. Bush (44%)

[ResAlien]

Mr Stop and Frisk himself will guarantee you get to test the “minorities and young people don’t vote” theory because neither is getting out for him. That all important suburban white vote though, that should be safe.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by icecube

Yup. The media will keep hammering that drum all the way up until election day to despite what the polling evidence suggests. They would rather have the fascist racist guy who keeps things cozy for the rich then any sort of social democratic reforms.

You really are no better than Trump and all his supporters and their fake news claims. Just like they'd say, anyone who disagrees with you must just be brainwashed by the main stream media... blah, blah, blah.

[icecube]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

You really are no better than Trump and all his supporters and their fake news claims. Just like they'd say, anyone who disagrees with you must just be brainwashed by the main stream media... blah, blah, blah.

Yeah, except Bernie has the receipts to prove it. He gets slagged on the daily on every outlet, even by his own party. They do not want the guy in. That was pretty clear after he was screwed in 2016. This isn't "fake news" paranoia. So it's quite a bit different. Nice try though.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by icecube

Yeah, except Bernie has the receipts to prove it. He gets slagged on the daily on every outlet, even by his own party. They do not want the guy in. That was pretty clear after he was screwed in 2016. This isn't "fake news" paranoia. So it's quite a bit different. Nice try though.

Just like Corbyn 'they' don't care, 'they' just know he will be eviscerated at the polls.
A vote for Corbyn was a vote for Boris and a vote for Bernie is a vote for Trump

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by icecube

Yeah, except Bernie has the receipts to prove it. He gets slagged on the daily on every outlet, even by his own party. They do not want the guy in. That was pretty clear after he was screwed in 2016. This isn't "fake news" paranoia. So it's quite a bit different. Nice try though.

He does not. You guys just scream it over and over until everyone thinks it's true. Again, no different than Trump. Bernie's coverage is fair. His ideas and policies deserve scrutiny and skepticism, and are likely not winning policies. And almost nothing he is running on has any chance of getting passed anyway.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Mr Stop and Frisk himself will guarantee you get to test the “minorities and young people don’t vote” theory because neither is getting out for him. That all important suburban white vote though, that should be safe.

I'm getting quite a good laugh out of the posters here who question Bernie's electability turning around and pumping the tires of guys like Bloomberg and Mayor Pete, both of whom have virtually zero chance of getting the turnout needed to beat Trump.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'm getting quite a good laugh out of the posters here who question Bernie's electability turning around and pumping the tires of guys like Bloomberg and Mayor Pete, both of whom have virtually zero chance of getting the turnout needed to beat Trump.

People follow MSM talking points vs. the polling data that shows the opposite. You'd think after 2016, Russia, Impeachment, ect people would stop listening to the media projection.

[rubecube]

Also the Democrats nominating a lifelong Republican to beat Trump would be peak centrism.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Not really. The marginal tax rates under his platform are identical for anyone earning under $250K; the only difference is a 4% health care surtax. For most people, that surtax merely brings them back to roughly where they were before Trump's tax cuts. And they get health care coverage to boot.

Now whether you think that will actually pay for his plan is another matter, but Americans haven't proven to be all that worried about deficits.

Adding a 4% payroll tax is a pretty hefty tax and Trump's tax cuts didn't really benefit that many people and certainly wasn't anywhere near 4% of their income in most cases.

Replacing medical payroll deductions with a 4% payroll tax would definitely make my paycheck go own. How do you sell this to a country when the large majority does not want to give up their current health care insurance?

This whole Trump creates larger deficits, so Bernie should too is a pretty crappy platform too. Trump's deficit spending in good economic times is very concerning to a lot of people, and will inevitably blow up.

[opendoor]

The Corbyn comparison is odd, given that the Labour Party ended up right where they had been polling for pretty much the entire year prior to the election. If Sanders is comparable to him, why isn't his unpopularity and unelectability showing up in poll numbers?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Also the Democrats nominating a lifelong Republican to beat Trump would be peak centrism.

The Republicans ran a lifelong Democrat in Trump and won so...

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The Republicans ran a lifelong Democrat in Trump and won so...

Nope.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politi...f_Donald_Trump

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Nope.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politi...f_Donald_Trump

Well, nope to you too, then. Bloomberg spent about 6 years of his life as a Republican.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg

Also, a NYC Republican is an entirely different animal than a federal Republican.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I suppose to be fair a New York Democrat is not a California or Massachusetts Democrat. Either way both Trump and Bloomberg are primarily opportunists so they share that in common.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Itse

While true, the same is true for every other candidate. Sanders is about as battle-hardened as they come.

Plus I think if the GoP had something really good to attack Sanders with, they'd probably have used it already. They generally start smearing top Democratic candidates right after the previous election has finished.

Many voters don't become engaged with national politics until the presidential race is well underway. Republican strategists are going to save their best stuff to unleash then. And Sanders has a lot of stuff in his radical past that will not go down well with middle America. Expressing solidarity with Castro and the Sandanistas may not matter to younger Democrats, but it will damage him with older voters and moderates.

Originally Posted by Itse

He's also kind of unique that the typical smear against him is that he's a socialist, and right now that label is actually what makes him interesting and attractive to people.

It makes him interesting and attractive to progressives.

If you hang out with young progressives, you might be under the impression that socialism is popular. It is, but only on the left. In the latest Gallup poll, taken in September, liberals and Democrats viewed socialism favorably, but Americans as a whole rejected it, 57 percent to 39 percent. In the same poll, respondents viewed capitalism favorably, 60 percent to 35 percent. A Harvard/New York Times poll, taken in July and August, found similar results: Americans endorsed capitalism, 57 percent to 37 percent, while rejecting socialism, 59 percent to 34 percent. Polls taken in May by the Pew Research Center, in March for the libertarian Cato Institute, and in December for Fox News yielded similar results. In every survey, socialism scores well among progressives but gets trounced, among voters as a whole, in a showdown with capitalism.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...socialism.html

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227298966108196866