10-22-2025, 01:52 PM
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#81
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
All these moves are later in the season moves though not November moves...maybe Ras but they have been trying to trade him for months
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Hence my concern.
I don't think we are bad enough to pick top 5/10 (even if the standings say otherwise at the moment), and not good enough to overcome the hole they have already dug themselves to push for a playoff spot. This 1-6 start to me is worst case scenario as I don't think this managerial/ownership group has the ability/desire to pull the plug on the veteran core of this team if they need to.
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10-22-2025, 01:54 PM
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#82
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Participant  |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
They aren't useless.
They are information that should be factored in along with other information.
I don't know why people are in such a rush to just throw them out v. understanding how to use those stats alongside other information.
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Most likely because they’re lazy. Less likely because they aren’t capable.
And, if we’re being honest, some of them literally do not know what the term “advanced” means and think it somehow alludes to those stats being “better” or “more useful” instead of just another measurement that is more recently developed that identifies a specific, limited thing, like every other stat.
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10-22-2025, 02:00 PM
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#83
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: MTL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monahammer
100% I have already jumped on the Habs bandwagon for this year. I think Dobes is fine in net- they could use a strong veteran centre though (KADRI!)
Either way I think they do damage in the playoffs. The Canadiens invariably seem to get stronger if they reach the playoffs.
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They are a likable team for sure and seem to have some magic in the air.
I agree that Kadri would be a perfect add for them...their fans are speculating as well.
If CGY throws in the towel, Kadri will be sought after despite his age/contract. Montreal is apparently one of the few destinations he is willing to waive for. Seems like a good match although I wonder what we could realistically get in return.
(Assuming Hage or F.Xhekaj are untouchable, I would push for a 1st, Reinbacher & Zharofsky - none of which are guaranteed NHLers at this point.)
Last edited by Funkhouser; 10-22-2025 at 02:11 PM.
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10-22-2025, 02:01 PM
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#84
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: sector 7G
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Habs have been funny this year. They’ll charge out of the gate in period 1, coast in 2 and let some #### goals in, then turn it back on near the end of the 3rd. Hoping for a 60 minute effort.
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10-22-2025, 02:12 PM
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#85
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Farm Team Player
Join Date: Jan 2023
Exp: 
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As long as we beat the Oilers, Habs, and Philly, I would consider this a successful year.
Send the habitants packing.
Wolfie with either a shutout or goalie fight - book it
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10-22-2025, 02:17 PM
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#86
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Franchise Player
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Predicting a 31 win.
Why, because I bet a flames/under parley
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10-22-2025, 02:32 PM
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#87
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhett44
But that is where the analytics fall apart.
Let's pretend that 2 players have the exact same scoring chance, an open shot in the slot. One shooter is Farabee and one is Mitch Marner.
Maybe Marner would be expected to score 8 out of every 20 times and Farabee on the same shot would be expected to score 1 out of 20 times.
There are other factors that go into this. We have mostly unskilled players which plays a part in why we cannot score.
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That doesn't mean analytics fall apart. In fact all the data exists. You can look at those two players and their abilities to generate chances and finish chances. You can then see what their historical ranges are, and yes one would expect Marner to finish at a higher rate than Farabee.
But you can also look to see if their current finishing rates resemble their histroic finishing rates for similar chances or not. If not, chances are it normalizes over time.
This doesn't mean analytics falls apart. Data leads to more questions, that should be answered with more data.
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10-22-2025, 02:36 PM
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#88
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Participant |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhett44
But that is where the analytics fall apart.
Let's pretend that 2 players have the exact same scoring chance, an open shot in the slot. One shooter is Farabee and one is Mitch Marner.
Maybe Marner would be expected to score 8 out of every 20 times and Farabee on the same shot would be expected to score 1 out of 20 times.
There are other factors that go into this. We have mostly unskilled players which plays a part in why we cannot score.
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This is actually where your argument falls apart, because “advanced” stats have measured this, so they can tell you what the actual occurrence of those things happening has been historically, which you can then use to make an educated guess on the chances of them happening now would be (instead of a wild one you just made up).
Farabee’s HDSH% averaged over the last 3 years is 20.7%
Marner’s HDSH% averaged over the last 3 years is 28.9%
Meaning if they both took 20 shots from the slot, you would expect Marner to score between 5-6 goals, and Farabee to score between 4-5 goals.
Draisaitl is the type of scorer you would expect to get 7-8 goals on 20 shots from the slot.
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10-22-2025, 02:38 PM
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#89
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Throw in the towel in what way? pull the goalie for 75 games?
Like realistically what does someone expect the team to do in the next couple months
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Trade Rasmus Andersson for futures and possibly Coleman and Kadri if they don't like the trajectory the team is on.
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10-22-2025, 02:41 PM
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#90
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Can you at least admit that things don't look great?  |
That's quite the ask. Perhaps peace in the Middle East is also possible.
__________________
"9 out of 10 concerns are completely unfounded."
"The first thing that goes when you lose your hands, are your fine motor skills."
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10-22-2025, 02:43 PM
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#91
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ComixZone
Trade Rasmus Andersson for futures and possibly Coleman and Kadri if they don't like the trajectory the team is on.
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Other than Ras those arent realistic near future moves
__________________
GFG
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10-22-2025, 02:49 PM
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#93
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Mar 2024
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ComixZone
Trade Rasmus Andersson for futures and possibly Coleman and Kadri if they don't like the trajectory the team is on.
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I feel like these two are inevitable before the TDL, or atleast should be. Only difference now is this poor start could just be a catalyst in moving them sooner than expected.
This time a year ago I had thought Kadri would be around for the majority/entirety of his contract but I can see him wanting a move next offseason when he goes to a modified NTC.
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10-22-2025, 02:53 PM
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#94
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Vancouver
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3-0 Habs. Wolf stands on his head and can only do so much.
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10-22-2025, 03:00 PM
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#95
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
This is actually where your argument falls apart, because “advanced” stats have measured this, so they can tell you what the actual occurrence of those things happening has been historically, which you can then use to make an educated guess on the chances of them happening now would be (instead of a wild one you just made up).
Farabee’s HDSH% averaged over the last 3 years is 20.7%
Marner’s HDSH% averaged over the last 3 years is 28.9%
Meaning if they both took 20 shots from the slot, you would expect Marner to score between 5-6 goals, and Farabee to score between 4-5 goals.
Draisaitl is the type of scorer you would expect to get 7-8 goals on 20 shots from the slot.
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Only edit I'd make is that HDSH% (as I understand it) is an on ice stat not an individual stat.
So Farabee has been on the ice with others with he or others having a high danger finish rate at 20.7%.
Not necessarily off his stick.
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10-22-2025, 03:04 PM
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#96
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Farm Team Player
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Exp:
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Since literally no one expects us to win against Montreal, we likely will win it. One thing for certain, I can never predict the Calgary Flames. Like some others here, Parekh gets his first point is my prediction and the Flames play their most complete game of the season. One can hope ...
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10-22-2025, 03:20 PM
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#97
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flame4life
Since literally no one expects us to win against Montreal, we likely will win it. One thing for certain, I can never predict the Calgary Flames. Like some others here, Parekh gets his first point is my prediction and the Flames play their most complete game of the season. One can hope ...
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But what if this year is the year that things are different. That'd be pretty cool.
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10-22-2025, 03:35 PM
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#98
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Boca Raton, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
Most likely because they’re lazy. Less likely because they aren’t capable.
And, if we’re being honest, some of them literally do not know what the term “advanced” means and think it somehow alludes to those stats being “better” or “more useful” instead of just another measurement that is more recently developed that identifies a specific, limited thing, like every other stat.
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Maybe we should call advanced stats just statistics, and call the other things observations or raw data. That's what they are. A shot on goal is an observable event and is raw data. Statistics are analysis or mathematical calculations using raw data, and so a shot on goal isn't a statistic at all. Taking that raw data and analyzing it as XGF/60 and so on is a statistic.
But like with any stats, you can't just look at one and determine everything from it. You always have to combine it with several other corroborating stats, and also sometimes stats that might disconfirm what the other stat says (where you lack disconfirmation, you can then accept what the confirmatory stat says).
__________________
"You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender
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10-22-2025, 03:44 PM
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#99
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Participant |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Only edit I'd make is that HDSH% (as I understand it) is an on ice stat not an individual stat.
So Farabee has been on the ice with others with he or others having a high danger finish rate at 20.7%.
Not necessarily off his stick.
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These numbers are from the NHL Edge site which does measure individual stats. Though you did make me double check, but yes, the numbers correlate to his actual (individual) shots/goals over the period.
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10-22-2025, 03:48 PM
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#100
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Scoring Winger
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I just can't understand those saying that Conroy needs to trade a bunch of vets right now. That seems like the best way to get 50 cents on the dollar. See how things progress. If someone comes and gives a great offer on a vet, then trade them. Otherwise, just keep having conversations with teams as the season progresses and pull the trigger on trades that make sense. The worst thing this franchise could have done last year was to over-correct towards the view that they are a consistent playoff team. The worst thing they can do this year is to completely revamp the roster because they have a terrible start. Keep focused on the long term and build this roster properly.
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must show all Flames games nationally when they play on Saturdays, Mondays, and Wednesdays !!!
