[GDT] Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames 6:30pm TV: SN, RDS - RADIO SN960

[Badgers Nose]

Flames played really well last game, probably time for them to break out and get some bounces.

4-2 Flames

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

The data doesn't support your claim.

Calgary's xGF% when trailing in games is 47.67%
Calgary's xGF% when tied in games is 54.82%
Calgary's xGF% when leading in games is 67.34%

We have a .915 PDO which quite frankly is impossible to come even close to maintaining. The lowest PDO at 5 on 5 over the last half decade in the NHL is .970

Here's the thing though, even if this poor start can't continue because numbers show they will bounce back to typical...what is the best case scenario for bounce back?

It's nearing territory where they'd have to play like a Division Champion to even be in the playoff conversation.

This roster is not that. That's why this poor start is so important.

Next 5 games:

Canadiens
Jets
Rangers
Leafs
Senators

If they drop 3 of those 5. 3-11-0? Or if they win 3 of those 5...4-10-0?

A loss tonight is massive in the path to burying this season right at the start. Conroy will, or should, act on a start that bad...because, very soon, the picture will be painted as the best case scenario being that they play their way into just missing the playoffs - and that, after just doing it last year, means nothing to this organization's future success.

I'd say that by Halloween we'll have a pretty good indication.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by bc-chris

he forgot about the stamps game

As did most of us lol.
The CFL is in a DIRE situation.

Changing into reverse AHL for the NFL by bringing in rule parity might help it survive, but what a way to essentially terminate the sport of Canadian Football.

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

Montreal is absolutely scary. Seriously.
Marty has them playing loosey goose hockey and the speed , tenacity, skill, heart leaves me drooling.

The kid we punted down the road returns now as a coach to do some crotch kicking , Heck I'd say the Habs will finish well enough and barring Injuries // additions at the TDL will surprise people .

I can easily cheer for them as my second favorite team because holy moly are they entertaining and have alot to prove .

To me if they had Wolf they'd be flat out unbeatable .

100% I have already jumped on the Habs bandwagon for this year. I think Dobes is fine in net- they could use a strong veteran centre though (KADRI!)

Either way I think they do damage in the playoffs. The Canadiens invariably seem to get stronger if they reach the playoffs.

[fotze2]

Go Shohei

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

UTH isn't in the Pacific, you would need to beat 3 of those teams.
LA has 2 wins
Vancouver just lost to Pittsburg 5-1 and the injuries are piling up
Seattle and Edmonton have 3 wins with the softest of schedules so far
Flames opponents have been like playing like .700 average

nobody is running away with anything

Not even saying for the Flames...96 points was the highest total in history to miss in the west, its likely slightly lower. Its probably low 90s to make the playoffs this year, not that that wouldn't also take a crazy effort.

Can you at least admit that things don't look great?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Here's the thing though, even if this poor start can't continue because numbers show they will bounce back to typical...what is the best case scenario for bounce back?

It's nearing territory where they'd have to play like a Division Champion to even be in the playoff conversation.

This roster is not that. That's why this poor start is so important.

Next 5 games:

Canadiens
Jets
Rangers
Leafs
Senators

If they drop 3 of those 5. 3-11-0? Or if they win 3 of those 5...4-10-0?

A loss tonight is massive in the path to burying this season right at the start. Conroy will, or should, act on a start that bad...because, very soon, the picture will be painted as the best case scenario being that they play their way into just missing the playoffs - and that, after just doing it last year, means nothing to this organization's future success.

I'd say that by Halloween we'll have a pretty good indication.

With the ridiculous schedule you have to give them November...I mean you aren't really going to make any changes in the near future anyway

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Here's the thing though, even if this poor start can't continue because numbers show they will bounce back to typical...what is the best case scenario for bounce back?

It's nearing territory where they'd have to play like a Division Champion to even be in the playoff conversation.

This roster is not that. That's why this poor start is so important.

Next 5 games:

Canadiens
Jets
Rangers
Leafs
Senators

If they drop 3 of those 5. 3-11-0? Or if they win 3 of those 5...4-10-0?

A loss tonight is massive in the path to burying this season right at the start. Conroy will, or should, act on a start that bad...because, very soon, the picture will be painted as the best case scenario being that they play their way into just missing the playoffs - and that, after just doing it last year, means nothing to this organization's future success.

I'd say that by Halloween we'll have a pretty good indication.

I mean I don't disagree with you. I just think it's very likely that if this team is kept together - they will start to surge up the standings, and likely play themselves out of a top 10 pick. That's the worst case scenario for many - I get it.

They simply are no where near as bad as their record has shown, and this is kind of the worst case scenario for the organization unless they throw in the towel on the season - which unfortunately I don't see happening.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

All this proves to me is advanced stats are pretty useless.

The Flames have been trailing or playing from behind the entire year. Teams stop playing as hard when they get up, which might explain some of these numbers.

Also a scoring chance for Eichel or Schiefele is much different than a scoring chance for Farabee lol.

They aren't useless.
They are information that should be factored in along with other information.

I don't know why people are in such a rush to just throw them out v. understanding how to use those stats alongside other information.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Can you at least admit that things don't look great?

again if you read I wasn't even saying for the Flames...the Pacific division isn't very good...somebody is going to get a divisional playoff spot with a so so record IMO
obviously 1-6 isn't a good start. The Kings 2 wins probably isn't the start they were looking for either...maybe the Flames tie them in wins tonight and both teams seasons will be over.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They aren't useless.
They are information that should be factored in along with other information.

I don't know why people are in such a rush to just throw them out v. understanding how to use those stats alongside other information.

Rhett has a narrative and when statistics prove it wrong he just flips the table and says "lol Joel Farabee can't score"

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I mean I don't disagree with you. I just think it's very likely that if this team is kept together - they will start to surge up the standings, and likely play themselves out of a top 10 pick. That's the worst case scenario for many - I get it.

They simply are no where near as bad as their record has shown, and this is kind of the worst case scenario for the organization unless they throw in the towel on the season - which unfortunately I don't see happening.

Throw in the towel in what way? pull the goalie for 75 games?

Like realistically what does someone expect the team to do in the next couple months

[bubbsy]

Hope the team continues to lose, parekh/honzek show positive progress, Andersson does stuff to help his trade stock.

What a year to be in the lottery conversation!!!

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Throw in the towel in what way? pull the goalie for 75 games?

Like realistically what does someone expect the team to do in the next couple months

Throwing in the towel to me would start with the team being open to and actively trying to move on from more than just Rasmus Andersson at some point in the season. Will Conroy approach the likes of Coleman, Kadri, etc.. about trades if the playoffs are not possible? I am not so sure, and even if he does this organization has limited it's self with the clauses and contracts they have handed out.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Go Shohei

This should be bannable

[iloveicedhockey]

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Rhett has a narrative and when statistics prove it wrong he just flips the table and says "lol Joel Farabee can't score"

But that is where the analytics fall apart.

Let's pretend that 2 players have the exact same scoring chance, an open shot in the slot. One shooter is Farabee and one is Mitch Marner.

Maybe Marner would be expected to score 8 out of every 20 times and Farabee on the same shot would be expected to score 1 out of 20 times.

There are other factors that go into this. We have mostly unskilled players which plays a part in why we cannot score.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Throwing in the towel to me would start with the team being open to and actively trying to move on from more than just Rasmus Andersson at some point in the season. Will Conroy approach the likes of Coleman, Kadri, etc.. about trades if the playoffs are not possible? I am not so sure, and even if he does this organization has limited it's self with the clauses and contracts they have handed out.

All these moves are later in the season moves though not November moves...maybe Ras but they have been trying to trade him for months

[Jiggy]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Rhett has a narrative and when statistics prove it wrong he just flips the table and says "lol Joel Farabee can't score"

Wolf stood on his head, the Flames suck! I want them to suck, but I will complain until they suck more.

Wolf did everything, the rest of the team stood there and watched. Even though Cooley was playing.

Am I doing this right?

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

No doubt. I’m just thinking, how much would the Flames have to pay me to watch the game over Game 1 of the World Series? It’s definitely more than $0. Who gives a #### lol

Guess that explains why you haven't replied to my invite to the Box seats tonight.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

But that is where the analytics fall apart.

Let's pretend that 2 players have the exact same scoring chance, an open shot in the slot. One shooter is Farabee and one is Mitch Marner.

Maybe Marner would be expected to score 8 out of every 20 times and Farabee on the same shot would be expected to score 1 out of 20 times.

There are other factors that go into this. We have mostly unskilled players which plays a part in why we cannot score.

I mean you said the Flames xg% is high because they have been trailed all year when they have had the lead in 5 of 7 and have substantially better numbers with the lead.

And yeah the stats are skewed for sure...but the stats are also skewed because of the schedule. I mean if you played Vegas for 82 games your numbers would look different than if you played SJ for 82 games right?

Whats the combined record of Flames opponents so far? .750?
5-2 Montreal tonight and then Jets again.

There is some nuance to all these things...that is why the great Peter said wait 20 games before looking at anything.