Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 6

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

At no point was Jankowski looking like he may not have been offered a contract. That's pure fabrication.

There was a Darren Haynes article a few months ago discussing it.

I didn't think it was likely but to think it wasn't on the radar when the flames eventually didn't renew a whole slew of prospects I think is probably just flames-fan blinders.

[jayswin]

I have an incredibly hard time believing that Jankowski was ever in danger of not being given a contract. That just can't possibly be true based on his progression. You have to be able to find something to back that up. Not seeing it.

[Bingo]

Actually I think it would be fair to say both of the following ...

1) Because Jankowski was a 1st round pick, they had to decide if they'd rather have his value projection or a 2nd round pick in last year's draft. Given the % chance of a guy turning out with a 2nd round pick I think this was a no brainer but it was a conversation.

2) If Jankowski wasn't a first round pick he would be signed 100 times out of a 100 based on what he did in college.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by New Era

Yes, you can judge players before they enter the AHL. You do that by comparables. I made the comparison to Marty Murray, who was a helluva junior player by the way. Murray didn't make it, even in the dark days of the Young Guns era. Size can be a bitch even when you are playing against a bunch of schmoes.

You tossed out Marchand as a comparable. Interesting selection, where I see no similarities, but using that as a comparable he was never really hyped coming out of junior. Even after his big junior season he was at best ranked as the 14th best prospect by the fan site hockey's future. Only after his breakout season in the AHL did he rise up the rankings, eventually topping out at 3rd behind Tuukka Rask and Joe Colborne. I think the point is made?

You've done nothing but age yourself by referencing Marty Murray. Not sure why you are comparing 2 players from different era's of hockey. Mangiapane wouldn't of made it 20 years ago.

> Marchand is 5'9 while Mangiapane is 5'10
> Marchand is a goal scorer like Mangiapane
> Marchand is a tenacious player for his size like Mangiapane
> Marchand is a pest like Mangiapane

Pretty much every skill, even down to the intangibles say they are similar players.

You talk about him not being hyped. No wonder he was voted the most underrated prospect in the OHL! That title means you weren't hyped when you should of been.

And if you can't get over him being selected after the first 2 rounds:

http://flamesnation.ca/2015/8/20/fla...rew-mangiapane

Some notable players that find themselves in Mangiapane's cohort (drafted in rounds 3-7 with a NHLE over 30 before turning 20) include: John Gaudreau, Jamie Benn, Gustav Nyquist, Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Nathan Gerbe, Paul Byron, Cody Eakin, Brad Marchand, Mathieu Perreault and Brendan Gallagher

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I have an incredibly hard time believing that Jankowski was ever in danger of not being given a contract. That just can't possibly be true based on his progression. You have to be able to find something to back that up. Not seeing it.

I thought it was obvious they would re-sign him as well, but you have to assume it was not a foregone conclusion based on how the team has reviewed many of the other prospects in the stable that aren't their picks, and some that were. For example Bill Arnold and Drew Shore. I'm sure most flames fans if polled in January or February would've said for sure those guys would've been re-signed, yet here we are in July and those guys are no longer with the organisation.

Here's that Haynes article I mentioned before discussing the scenarios where it might make sense for the Flames to walk away and take the compensatory pick.

Also, I am not using Jankowski's contract as a pillar of my argument, but it does illustrate how far apart Shinkaruk and Jankowski are in their respective development and experience.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

There was a Darren Haynes article a few months ago discussing it.

I didn't think it was likely but to think it wasn't on the radar when the flames eventually didn't renew a whole slew of prospects I think is probably just flames-fan blinders.

Reports are throughout the season the Flames kept in contact with Jankowski, seeing him play live and meeting with him several times. Assistant GM Brad Pascal and other Flames personal were there to discuss contracts with Jankowski the moment his season ended. Sure there was speculation from fans and media, but that seems to be the intent of it. The Flames all along, by all reports, seem intent on having this guy in the fold.

The Flames letting going a bunch of prospects is due to an influx of new ones, like Jankowski.

Your post was long but hard to take seriously, and that's not your fault, it's just that it's stuff that have been debated about pointed out ad nauseam for some time now and I'm finding it difficult to work up the energy to give it a full reply.

Jankowski's numbers aren't comparable to Nystroms. Eric's numbers stagnated throughout College and he was continually anywhere from 4th to 8th in team scoring, all while being surrounded by future NHL players. Jankowski showed progression each year eventually leading his team in scoring, not 5th in his senior year.

As for Jankowski vs Shinkaruk... well these lists tend to favour guys that haven't faced the pro game yet but Jankowski to me is just the better prospect. No I wouldn't trade Mark for Hunter, nor would I trade Mark for Marcus Granlund, a guy I posted hoped could be had for a middle round pick last year.

Shinkaruk has good offensive upside but I really dislike his skating and think it might hinder him. He skates like he's in mud, I love the fact he goes to the net, he pays the price but that ugly ugly skating. The Canucks soured on him due to size, thinking he didn't have the size to continue that front battle scoring type, so we'll see.

Jankowski to me is a middle six center/winger. Fantastic two-way upside, very intelligent player, good smooth skater and has shown flashes of true offensive instincts. My main beef with him is wanting to see him be the first to battle and he's done that much more over the past two seasons. Suggesting it'd be a miracle if he turns out to be Colborne is a real stretch. I'm not letting Colborne's post deadline offensive explosion fool me. Don't think he's that player.

Shinkaruk might put up more goals, but Jankowski will be the more important player. That's if both make it, that's if either make it.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I thought it was obvious they would re-sign him as well, but you have to assume it was not a foregone conclusion based on how the team has reviewed many of the other prospects in the stable that aren't their picks, and some that were. For example Bill Arnold and Drew Shore. I'm sure most flames fans if polled in January or February would've said for sure those guys would've been re-signed, yet here we are in July and those guys are no longer with the organisation.

Drew Shore and Bill Arnold and 24 and 25 years old. Arnold with two years of pro experience Shore with four. I had hoped both wouldn't be given qualifying offers last summer, this year was no surprise whatsoever. It's natural turnover to cut loose the mid 20's guys for a newer batch of players.

If Jankowski hasn't shown that progression in 2-3 years it'll be the same story. That group of players being let go have nothing to do with Jankowski.

There is also no indication whatsoever that the Flames were going to walk away from Jankowski, compensation pick or not. It was media and fan speculation.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I remember when everyone was saying the same about Gaudreau. Except he didn't spend a second in the AHL.

I wasn't one of those doubters about Gaudreau, but Mangiapane is no Gaudreau. You have use Marchand as a comparable in another post and I think that's fair comparison. Marchand spent 1.5 seasons in the AHL. I want to see Mangiapane have the same success in the AHL before I rank him too high on this list.

[Flash Walken]

Who was the last flames prospect to score 30 goals in the AHL?

Kobasew?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Shinkaruk has good offensive upside but I really dislike his skating and think it might hinder him. He skates like he's in mud, I love the fact he goes to the net, he pays the price but that ugly ugly skating.

Shinkaruk's skating is unusual, but "ugly" or "weak", I don't think so at all. He's slippery on his edges, and has good acceleration. I get the sense that rather than power skating, he learned his technique through figure skating lessons as a kid.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Lets be clear that this wasn't Flames training camp. If he comes to camp in the fall out of shape then there should be some legitimate concerns but he was arguably the best rookie at last season's training camp and he's a decorated AHL player that's almost got nothing left to prove so he's closing in on a pro career and to me fitness is one of the easiest things to be fixed. That said I'm not making excuses for the guy as he has to realize that it would be silly to sabotage a potentially lucrative NHL career because you are too lazy to get into shape.

I think you meant OHL player. I do hope that you are right, and am pulling for the guy.

Development camp or not, I'd bet the majority of guys busted their asses and showed up in great shape. Fitness could be easy to fix, if he finds the commitment.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Shinkaruk's skating is unusual, but "ugly" or "weak", I don't think so at all. He's slippery on his edges, and has good acceleration. I get the sense that rather than power skating, he learned his technique through figure skating lessons as a kid.

Well it's certainly ugly, we'll disagree if it's a hinderance or not though. Hopefully I'm wrong and you're right, or it remains ugly and he thrives despite it.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Shinkaruk's skating is unusual, but "ugly" or "weak", I don't think so at all. He's slippery on his edges, and has good acceleration. I get the sense that rather than power skating, he learned his technique through figure skating lessons as a kid.

This is true. Shink's been skating since he was two or three years old, I go to the same rink and gym that he does. Learned how to skate on what is essentially a figure skating rink with no boards.

[Yanda]

Poirier and Klimchuk's development were both limited last seasons and I doubt either of them will make the top 10 prospects this off-season.

Shinkaruk on the other hand seems to be NHL ready and could be a big wild card in training camp. We should def support Shinkaruk and give him a shot, he a good calgary boy. Colborne out, Shinkaruk in.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

You've done nothing but age yourself by referencing Marty Murray. Not sure why you are comparing 2 players from different era's of hockey. Mangiapane wouldn't of made it 20 years ago.

> Marchand is 5'9 while Mangiapane is 5'10
> Marchand is a goal scorer like Mangiapane
> Marchand is a tenacious player for his size like Mangiapane
> Marchand is a pest like Mangiapane

Pretty much every skill, even down to the intangibles say they are similar players.

You talk about him not being hyped. No wonder he was voted the most underrated prospect in the OHL! That title means you weren't hyped when you should of been.

And if you can't get over him being selected after the first 2 rounds:

http://flamesnation.ca/2015/8/20/fla...rew-mangiapane

So much wrong in that article. First, Mangiapane is not a cohort of any of those players identified. Hiw many of those guys were passed over being drafted/selected in the junior or college ranks? How many of them were passed over in their first draft? This means teams passed on him at least a dozen times before he was selected by the Flames in the 6th round of his second edible draft. Not a single player mentioned in that article can say that. Again, that stacks up against the player.

The article also goes on about NHLe and it being a sure fire predictor of success. That is just so much bull#### it is beyond belief. Feel free to review the junior scoring races from the past 20 years and see just how many players with a NHLe of 30 or better didn't amount to a hill of beans. This list is very long and very proud.

As to your claim of the Mangiapane being named the most underrated player having any significance here is a list of past winners of that poll.

Marcus McIvor and Pius Suter
Brendan Bell and Brady Vail
Colin Miller and Eric Locke
Sam Carrick and Josh Leivo
Andy Andreoff and Brett Flemming (Freddie Hamilton was 3rd)
Ken Peroff and Garrett Ross

I can go on and on here. That's a list of pretty unwhelming players, a lot of them never even holding an AHL job. That speaks volumes of the importance of that award in the coach's poll.

I think we can agree that Mangiapane has some skill. You don't crack 100 points in the AHL without having skill. the issue is his development and the curve he is taking to get to the level where people should be all hot and bothered. This is a kid who has always been behind his peer group in development. Well he is now graduating to the pro ranks and has to prove his skills translate. That is key here. You have to believe that his skills will translate or he likely doesn't even hold a job in the AHL. He has to prove that first. Do that, be a top scorer in that league, then we can get excited about the kid. There is too much history, including his own, working against him.

One last thing, about the whole age crack. Yeah, I remember Marty Murray. I remember a lot of guys older than that too. That means I've see a lot of really good players over the years not amount to much, and lesser skilled players carve out impressive careers. Experience counts when evaluating these guys, a lot more than a spreadsheet.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

Andersson's fitness concerns are a huge red flag for me. I think he gets a bit of a pass being called out by management last year, in his first year in camp.

But the second year to camp...absolutely no excuses. He wasn't able (unlikely) or willing (more likely) to put in a pro-level commitment to fitness. Imo he will be finding employment in Europe if he keeps down this path.

I have confidence that the Flames will continue to work with him, but you can only lead a horse to water.

Kind of makes me chuckle how Button, Treliving et al were parading this idea at the 2015 draft and dev camp that you can teach proper nutrition, lifestyle, fitness and how they were willing to take a chance on a guy who maybe scored low in those categories because it's teachable. 1 year out the guy they picked who had those fitness and weight issues, is still having the same issues and they're mad. Seems they wanted to have their cake and eat it too. I could've told em you can't make a lazy person un-lazy.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by saillias

1 year out the guy they picked who had those fitness and weight issues, is still having the same issues and they're mad. Seems they wanted to have their cake and eat it too. I could've told em you can't make a lazy person un-lazy.

Do did Rasmus apparently.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by New Era

So much wrong in that article. First, Mangiapane is not a cohort of any of those players identified. Hiw many of those guys were passed over being drafted/selected in the junior or college ranks? How many of them were passed over in their first draft? This means teams passed on him at least a dozen times before he was selected by the Flames in the 6th round of his second edible draft. Not a single player mentioned in that article can say that. Again, that stacks up against the player.

The article also goes on about NHLe and it being a sure fire predictor of success. That is just so much bull#### it is beyond belief. Feel free to review the junior scoring races from the past 20 years and see just how many players with a NHLe of 30 or better didn't amount to a hill of beans. This list is very long and very proud.

As to your claim of the Mangiapane being named the most underrated player having any significance here is a list of past winners of that poll.

Marcus McIvor and Pius Suter
Brendan Bell and Brady Vail
Colin Miller and Eric Locke
Sam Carrick and Josh Leivo
Andy Andreoff and Brett Flemming (Freddie Hamilton was 3rd)
Ken Peroff and Garrett Ross

I can go on and on here. That's a list of pretty unwhelming players, a lot of them never even holding an AHL job. That speaks volumes of the importance of that award in the coach's poll.

I think we can agree that Mangiapane has some skill. You don't crack 100 points in the AHL without having skill. the issue is his development and the curve he is taking to get to the level where people should be all hot and bothered. This is a kid who has always been behind his peer group in development. Well he is now graduating to the pro ranks and has to prove his skills translate. That is key here. You have to believe that his skills will translate or he likely doesn't even hold a job in the AHL. He has to prove that first. Do that, be a top scorer in that league, then we can get excited about the kid. There is too much history, including his own, working against him.

One last thing, about the whole age crack. Yeah, I remember Marty Murray. I remember a lot of guys older than that too. That means I've see a lot of really good players over the years not amount to much, and lesser skilled players carve out impressive careers. Experience counts when evaluating these guys, a lot more than a spreadsheet.

Pretty sure we had this exact discussion when Mangiapane won these awards.

How many of those "underrated players" also won fastest skater and best shootout shooter awards and were one of the leagues top scorers? Typically prospects without hype aren't top scorers of their league. Mangiapane is the exception, not the norm.

You think we as fans aren't allowed to get excited for prospects until they become top scorers in the AHL. I think that's the dumbest possible stance to take. So mind boggling and I clearly remember you saying it before. If you don't have the ability to evaluate a players skill before turning pro, that's on you. Mangiapane has done everything in his power to rise the prospect rankings and I believe he's going to be a surefire top-9 NHLer.

Smaller players need to do more to stand out as a real player. Mangiapane has done that ever since being passed over in his first draft. Just like how Johnny did after being passed over by team USA.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by New Era

So much wrong in that article. First, Mangiapane is not a cohort of any of those players identified. Hiw many of those guys were passed over being drafted/selected in the junior or college ranks? How many of them were passed over in their first draft? This means teams passed on him at least a dozen times before he was selected by the Flames in the 6th round of his second edible draft. Not a single player mentioned in that article can say that. Again, that stacks up against the player.

Incidentally, the same author makes a case that second-time draft eligibles have a higher rate of becoming successful late round picks in the NHL.

http://flamesnation.ca/2016/7/11/dia...te-talent-late

History kind of contradicts the core premise of your little rant.

[greentree]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

This is true. Shink's been skating since he was two or three years old, I go to the same rink and gym that he does. Learned how to skate on what is essentially a figure skating rink with no boards.

Glencoe Club?