[News] Joe Colborne up to 6'5, 220lbs

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Komskies

You're cherry-picking stats there. Those guys are the exception, not the norm. A lot of marginal players fade into obscurity once they hit their 30s and quickly find themselves out of the league.

I think you hit the nail on the head, which is the point. Tones of "mediocre" players who are getting opportunities in their early 20's based on their potential, then no longer get the same opportunities if they don't pan out and either leave the league or no longer get the same ice time as they get older, and production drops.

Pretty willing to wager, if we pulled the stats of only players who become consistent top 6 forwards in this league, the vast majority have their best production years between 25 and 29. Zevo showed some examples above, and fair you can say they are cherry picked (because they are), but pretty sure you'd see it fairly consistently for players who "make it" as scorers in this league.

[Zevo]

Originally Posted by Komskies

You're cherry-picking stats there. Those guys are the exception, not the norm. A lot of marginal players fade into obscurity once they hit their 30s and quickly find themselves out of the league.

I was replying to this from another poster,

Top 6 guys, first line players, and elite superstars often post their best numbers in that 23-25 age range.

Sure if you take the average of all NHL players it will be lower.

[Enoch Root]

The stats clearly show that offensive numbers peak in the early to mid-twenties.

However, that doesn't capture that there is more to being an NHLer than points.

Physicality and defense are aspects of the game that peak later.

Colborne was never going to be a big offensive numbers guy. His best years (like most players that aren't top point producers) are going to be in his late twenties when he is physically mature and his game is more well-rounded.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by fotze

He was though (at least expectations and draft position). He had very good offensive numbers. I think those expectations are what made us able to land him for next to nothing.

By 'big numbers guy' I was referring to the Patrick Kane types - guys that can put up 70-80 point seasons.

Those are the guys whose numbers peak in the 23-25 range.

Colborne was drafted out of the AJHL and was never expected to be that.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Fire

Colborne was getting consistently 17-20 minutes at the end of the season, but still had lack lustre production. I hope I'm wrong and he becomes a consistent 2nd liner who can score 20 goals a season, but I see him dropping down to be a 3rd liner who can pot 10-15 goals a year. Poirier and Ferland will push him down the depth chart in the next few seasons.

Colborne's production went up as the season progressed, as did his ice time.

If you split the season into quarters:

Games 1-20:

• Galiardi -- 20/20 GP - 1G / 5A - 16:39 ice/game -- 1.08 points per 60 min played
• Colborne -- 19/20 GP - 1G / 3A - 12:37 ice/game -- 1.00 points per 60 min played

Games 21-41:

• Galiardi -- 7/21 GP - 0G / 0A - 14:50 ice/game -- 0.00 points per 60 min played
• Colborne -- 20/21 GP - 2G / 3A - 13:01 ice/game -- 1.15 points per 60 min played

Games 42-61:

• Galiardi -- 19/20 GP - 1G / 6A - 13:16 ice/game -- 1.67 points per 60 min played
• Colborne -- 20/20 GP - 1G / 7A - 13:46 ice/game -- 1.74 points per 60 min played

Games 62-82:

• Galiardi -- 16/21 GP - 2G / 2A - 13:33 ice/game -- 1.11 points per 60 min played
• Colborne -- 21/21 GP - 6G / 5A - 17:26 ice/game -- 1.80 points per 60 min played

Over the full season:

• Galiardi: 1.12 points per 60 min played
• Colborne: 1.47 points per 60 min played

For comparison, last season:

• Hudler: 2.29
• Cammalleri: 2.16
• Monahan: 1.70
• Backlund: 1.66

The elite:

• Crosby: 3.55
• Getzlaf: 3.18

From the first quarter to the last, not only did Colborne's average ice time increase by nearly 5 minutes per game, his point output during that ice time increased by 80%.

[Beatle17]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

how convenient, I just read an article dealing with this exact topic yesterday:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/1...s-age-analysis

Interesting chart, but where is the factor for average career length? Does this graph only show players who have played from ages 20-40 for a career or does it include all players who played the NHL average of 5.65 seasons? Basically if players start at age 21 and play the average career they will be out of the league at 26-27 years old and their highest production levels will sway the graph. Unless there is a graph for every player in the league it will sway the average because there are fewer players contributing in their early to mid 30's.

[AcGold]

Or the factor for guys who were way too skinny when they were younger. Colborne's not going to regress, that would be unlikely.

[Zevo]

If you take a list of the top players in the last 20 years, most will have their most productive seasons, points wise, after 25.

Grinders and role players may be a different story that would probably involve more variables than the top players in the league. Did their ice time get reduced as better players were drafted? Did their role change? How long was their career etc.