Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I like the idea of a two party system, you always have a majority but usually a strong opposition.
I can't imagine the other parties folding into the Alberta banner though. I can picture them drifting into irrelevance at some future point and us being left with two significant parties and several others who run candidates but don't win.

I didn't mean they'd fold, but become irreverent yes.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I'd say many of the posters here are really centrists/independant. I think (hope?) the Alberta Party can get a kind of Wildrose-like surge for the next election. I quite like Glenn Taylor.

As long as the Alberta Party seems like little more than disaffected Liberals, it'll never go anywhere. The reality is, if you want to form government in Alberta, you need a strong conservative presence. It would be interesting if they could steal some of that PC vote next time out, however.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

As long as the Alberta Party seems like little more than disaffected Liberals, it'll never go anywhere. The reality is, if you want to form government in Alberta, you need a strong conservative presence. It would be interesting if they could steal some of that PC vote next time out, however.

Honestly the best thing that could possibly happen to the Alberta Party for next election is a Wildrose majority in this election.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

As long as the Alberta Party seems like little more than disaffected Liberals, it'll never go anywhere. The reality is, if you want to form government in Alberta, you need a strong conservative presence. It would be interesting if they could steal some of that PC vote next time out, however.

I guess that all depends on how quickly we're voting again. I agree with Yeah_Baby a Wildrose majority would probably be in the Alberta Party's best interest, as it would give them sufficient time to build up a base much like the Wildrose did after the 08 elections. But a quick turnaround vote might be a very bad thing for the long term fortunes of the Alberta Party.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I like the idea of a two party system, you always have a majority but usually a strong opposition.
I can't imagine the other parties folding into the Alberta banner though. I can picture them drifting into irrelevance at some future point and us being left with two significant parties and several others who run candidates but don't win.

My guy tells me that Mason and the NDP gained more traction in this election, I really don't think in the end that Raj was all that effective in getting his message across. He wasn't strong enough to get around the clatter of the WildRose vs PC battle that was happening. Tough to do I know but he needed to find away besides a quip campaign. I also don't think his Twitter work help him out much, especially the one about Bigots and homophobes should flock to the WildRose Banner. I think that was a moment of frustration on his part, but it came across as really unneccessary.

I think that Mason did a fairly goood job with what he had to work with.

A think Allison and the PC's ran a disasterous campaign and followed the Federal Liberal game plan a bit too closely. I also think that Allison just wasn't very good, and you never got the feeling that she was comfortable with her own campaign. To me she focused way to much on Wildrose instead of letting her party stand on what it wanted to do. I think her message could be a dsaster as she really alienated her core support group or voters. Personally I think that she was a bit a trainwreck.

I think that Danielle Smith did a decent job, I think that her speech after the two candidate disaster was a good to great moment for her. However I think that she wasn't as physically prepared for this campaign as she could have been and she looked worn out at the end, and that concerns me. On the positive side for her, she didn't lose her temper, she is a very good public speaker and she didn't really react to the bait that the Liberal's and PC's laid out there. However her platform itself didn't have a strong resonance factor for me, just like the PC's campaign didn't really make me jump up and go yeah, yeah baby that's what I want.

This election is going to comedown to emotions and the desire for change and for the Wildrose the hope that the angry voters that stayed away from the booths last time will hit the boots this time as they see WR as a viable change engine in the provincial government.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

A think Allison and the PC's ran a disasterous campaign and followed the Federal Liberal game plan a bit too closely. I also think that Allison just wasn't very good, and you never got the feeling that she was comfortable with her own campaign. To me she focused way to much on Wildrose instead of letting her party stand on what it wanted to do. I think her message could be a dsaster as she really alienated her core support group or voters. Personally I think that she was a bit a trainwreck.

I think you summed it up nicely. The biggest problem with Redford is she is too confident of her own political agenda. Starting with changing the character of Alberta, is it really the best way to campaign? Who asked that our characters should be changed in the first place?

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I think you summed it up nicely. The biggest problem with Redford is she is too confident of her own political agenda. Starting with changing the character of Alberta, is it really the best way to campaign? Who asked that our characters should be changed in the first place?

*gets on soapbox*

The majority of liberal and democratic societies.

*gets off soapbox*

[getbak]

If the Wildrose wins, how long until someone demands the slogan on our licence plates gets changed?

[darklord700]

Also, Redford's campaign is full of big words, like changing characters, moving into the future etc. What do they actually mean, I have no idea? I don't even understand what 140 family clinics will do for me.

But I understand $300 tax rebate, $2000 child tax credit, balanced budget, guarantee wait time.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by getbak

If the Wildrose wins, how long until someone demands the slogan on our licence plates gets changed?

PC's already floated this balloon about a year ago (I think)

[You Need a Thneed]

Three Hundred Eight has Incumbent Liberal MLA Darshan Kang recieving a maximum of 24% of the vote, with the average of 19.7%, and finishing in third place.

There's ZERO chance that it's going to be that low, IMO. I stand by my claim that it's going to be a fairly close three way race, and I can't see Kang finishing lower than second place.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Also, Redford's campaign is full of big words, like changing characters, moving into the future etc. What do they actually mean, I have no idea? I don't even understand what 140 family clinics will do for me.

But I understand $300 tax rebate, $2000 child tax credit, balance budget, guarantee wait time.

That shiny new iPad is going to look so good in your living room.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I once read that an Alberta government has only ever been defeated by a party to the right of them. This seems to be true, as our governments have gone (iirc) Liberal-->Socreds-->PCs, and then potentially wildrose, which is certainly considered to the "right" of the PCs.

So your post could read. "In Alberta you can only defeat a Conservative government by creating a parties even further right"

I can't wait to see who we elect in 2053. The Wilder Rose Party?

[Sylvanfan]

Somewhat OT question, but am I allowed to bring my 2 year old to the ballot booth with me? My wife has the 11 to 7 shift today, so basically I'm looking at trying to go vote at 7:30 or later by the time she gets home, yells at me for having a lousy day, and changes out of her work clothes. If I can bring the kid...than I can go after we eat around 6:30 and at least vote.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Somewhat OT question, but am I allowed to bring my 2 year old to the ballot booth with me? My wife has the 11 to 7 shift today, so basically I'm looking at trying to go vote at 7:30 or later by the time she gets home, yells at me for having a lousy day, and changes out of her work clothes. If I can bring the kid...than I can go after we eat around 6:30 and at least vote.

shouldn't be any problem. My wife and I had our two kids along, although they weren't right at the booth. Just let them run around if it's a problem.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Yeah_Baby

That shiny new iPad is going to look so good in your living room.

But at least that's his choice.

[c.t.ner]

Gotta say these poll results are interesting. Didn't see that panning out on CP like that.

[ah123]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Somewhat OT question, but am I allowed to bring my 2 year old to the ballot booth with me? My wife has the 11 to 7 shift today, so basically I'm looking at trying to go vote at 7:30 or later by the time she gets home, yells at me for having a lousy day, and changes out of her work clothes. If I can bring the kid...than I can go after we eat around 6:30 and at least vote.

We took our three year old with us, she went into the voting booth with my wife and no one said anything...

[Resolute 14]

Someone is jihadding CP!

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Gotta say these poll results are interesting. Didn't see that panning out on CP like that.

I am not surprised. I am pretty sure polls of more informed voters always tend toward a central position.

No way those numbers are matched at the polls though, as the average voter is FAR less informed than the CP member.