Polls have increasingly fallen short of actual political outcomes. Based on recent experience in Scotland, GOP primaries, Brexit, the outlier turned out to be the reality.
I still don't think anyone in here really understands the mindset of the Trump voter.
That you would conflate referenda polling with presidential election polling speaks volumes to how little you understand what you're talking about.
In one off referenda like brexit you don't have a benchmark so pollsters don't know how to weight. Of course the polling is going to be weaker and less explanatory for those votes.
That you would conflate referenda polling with presidential election polling speaks volumes to how little you understand what you're talking about.
In one off referenda like brexit you don't have a benchmark so pollsters don't know how to weight. Of course the polling is going to be weaker and less explanatory for those votes.
__________________ "We are no longer living. We are empty of substance, and our head devours us. Our ancestors were more alive. Nothing separated them from themselves."
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Swift For This Useful Post:
I know you don't take requests Buster, but maybe you could answer this for me...
Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged, great novel or greatest novel ever?
I didn't think it was a particularly opaque statement on my part.
The Republicans like the Big State, and the Democrats like the Big State. They just have different views on what parts should be bloated.
Edit: I don't feel obliged to take requests, but I also make exceptions where I feel like it. Turns out the inadequacy of the the government is one of my favorite topics.
I understand a great deal about politics, but polling is something with which I have only cursory familiarity.
It is an area that has hidden complexities, but there are some general principles, apart from the obvious ones. For instance, larger sample sizes are better, but not over longer periods of time. In the US, the most accurate polls call both landlines and cell phones, and ask the questions in both English and Spanish.
Lastly: any poll that shows the Democrats ahead is "skewed", and must be "unskewed" by increasing the number of self-identified republicans that are responding. This includes all of the polls from 2012 which showed Obama leading by 5 points in the weeks before the election.
And justly so, because those polls TOTALLY missed the mark, since Obama ended up winning by 8 instead of 5 points.
- Don't trust any poll that adds up to 100% between the candidates. Undecideds are real people too.
- Generally don't trust online polls (the Reuters poll is an example of an online poll)
- There's always new polling companies popping up, so don't trust them until they develop a track record
- More often than not you gain more valuable information from the poll breakdown than the general outcome. So Hillary being up 13 in a poll is the big thing, but the deeper numbers (like her massive advantages with women and minorities) are often what matter to winning an election.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Senator Clay Davis For This Useful Post:
It is an area that has hidden complexities, but there are some general principles, apart from the obvious ones. For instance, larger sample sizes are better, but not over longer periods of time. In the US, the most accurate polls call both landlines and cell phones, and ask the questions in both English and Spanish.
Lastly: any poll that shows the Democrats ahead is "skewed", and must be "unskewed" by increasing the number of self-identified republicans that are responding. This includes all of the polls from 2012 which showed Obama leading by 5 points in the weeks before the election.
And justly so, because those polls TOTALLY missed the mark, since Obama ended up winning by 8 instead of 5 points.
No, no. I know that much.
I was also being slightly sarcastic as I am sure many members "knowledge" is merely stuff they have read elsewhere, but I digress... I don't know much about advanced or even intermediate polling methodology.
Time Magazine really needs to make "People tell me" or "many people are saying" or whatever other horse#### lie Trump uses as "Person of the Year". And once again he cannot avoid the crazy train, proving he has almost no chance of getting it together and pivoting. It's funny because two people want this election to be all about Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton...and Donald Trump. Ironic his narcissism is guaranteed to cost him dearly.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Senator Clay Davis For This Useful Post:
AltaGuy has a magnetic personality and exudes positive energy, which is infectious to those around him. He has an unparalleled ability to communicate with people, whether he is speaking to a room of three or an arena of 30,000.
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At le pub...
Exp:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
That's one of the Trumpiest tweets Trump's ever made!
Anybody else find it ironic that the 'lost' emails allegedly have classified and dangerous information...and that Trump asked a foreign power to find them?
The cognitive dissonance required to be a Trumper is amazing.
__________________
"WHAT HAVE WE EVER DONE TO DESERVE THIS??? WHAT IS WRONG WITH US????" -Oiler Fan
"It was a debacle of monumental proportions." -MacT
Time Magazine really needs to make "People tell me" or "many people are saying" or whatever other horse#### lie Trump uses as "Person of the Year". And once again he cannot avoid the crazy train, proving he has almost no chance of getting it together and pivoting. It's funny because two people want this election to be all about Donald Trump: Hillary Clinton...and Donald Trump. Ironic his narcissism is guaranteed to cost him dearly.
Many people are saying that the reason for Trump not releasing his tax returns is not because he isnt wealthy or that he has ties to Russian oligarchs, but that he has made a significant amount of donations to NAMBLA.
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Izzle For This Useful Post:
PPP's most recent poll breakdown shows just how insane (and sheep like) most Trump supporters are. The ACORN point is hilarious. ACORN hasn't existed for 6 years.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
