Totally out of nowhere question: what are the odds that polls are under-representing Trump's support in that they poll likely or registered voters, whereas he seems likely to get a more-than-usual chunk of his support from unlikely voters?
I suppose one response could be that you could've said the same thing about Sanders but polls remained normally predictive in his case. Just curious.
Pretty low. Populists strike a chord early and gain their following early. Studies in neuroscience seem to indicate that being an undecided voter is a misnomer, that voters just refuse to commit to polling. What hurts your theory about Trump voters not reporting their voting preference is that Trump supporters are unabashed in their support for their candidate. If you like Trump, and his populist message, you really like him. These voters make no bones about it and are in your face with their support. If you don't like Trump there is little that is going to convert you to his populist message. There is substantial science to account for this block of voters and it is based on the way our brains are wired. Neuroscience suggests that if you aren't committed to Trump yet, you aren't holding your nose and going for him come ballot time, because your brain won't let you. So basically, if you have a brain, and it is functioning, and you haven't already committed, you aren't voting for Donald Trump.
Okay, but that's a totally different question than what I asked. My question was about unlikely or unregistered voters, who usually aren't included in poll samples. Your answer was about undecided voters, who are a subset of individuals who are included in those poll samples.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Polls have increasingly fallen short of actual political outcomes. Based on recent experience in Scotland, GOP primaries, Brexit, the outlier turned out to be the reality.
I still don't think anyone in here really understands the mindset of the Trump voter.
Actually the GOP primaries the polling was quite accurate. It had trump ahead from the start and was correct within error. Pundits kept discounting his polling. Trump through the primaries also did not out perform his polling do their is no shy trump affect at least at the primary level.
538 has a good discussion in their trump mea culpa.
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Actually the GOP primaries the polling was quite accurate. It had trump ahead from the start and was correct within error. Pundits kept discounting his polling. Trump through the primaries also did not out perform his polling do their is no shy trump affect at least at the primary level.
538 has a good discussion in their trump mea culpa.
Thanks, I am just reading it now. Very informative.
One other thing to note about polls is that they should predict the wrong outcome some of the time. If you look at the forecast and it gives a 80% chance of someone winning it means that 20% of the time be other person should win. However when that 20% happens people say that the poll or model was wrong when in fact if that 20% didn't win 1/5 races then the model would be wrong.
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Okay, but that's a totally different question than what I asked. My question was about unlikely or unregistered voters, who usually aren't included in poll samples. Your answer was about undecided voters, who are a subset of individuals who are included in those poll samples.
I would say that data remains the same. Again, if you are attracted to the populist message you will engage in the system. Being an unlikely voter, or unregistered at this point seems to indicate that neither of the messages has engaged you. The problem with populists is they fire up the support early and rarely build on that enthusiasm by reaching other people. If you weren't pre-wired for the populist message you aren't going to be swayed by hearing it more
If I were Trump I would be more concerned about my support turning into the unlikely voter if he changes or softens his message. Populists are relying on the reaction to message queues that activate certain responses in our brain. When those messages change, and the activation impulse is not present, those who were certain supporters will quickly fall by the wayside. Many Tea Party candidates saw this happen to their support as they began to soften their positions on issues where they needed mainstream support.
Another disenfranchised Republican throws his hat in the ring. The false narrative of smaller government is a hallmark of the Republican platform, but it holds no water. Has a modern Republicans ever made government smaller on the federal level? What is the outcome of them attempting to do so? It is a great line that touches Republicans in their private places, but when the rubber hits the road they don't have the support to kill the much needed departments they talk about targeting.
Another disenfranchised Republican throws his hat in the ring. The false narrative of smaller government is a hallmark of the Republican platform, but it holds no water. Has a modern Republicans ever made government smaller on the federal level? What is the outcome of them attempting to do so? It is a great line that touches Republicans in their private places, but when the rubber hits the road they don't have the support to kill the much needed departments they talk about targeting.
Well, they've defunded and thusly crippled Planned Parenthood pretty extensively.
EDIT: Though it's mostly on the State-level. So your point still stands.
Another disenfranchised Republican throws his hat in the ring. The false narrative of smaller government is a hallmark of the Republican platform, but it holds no water. Has a modern Republicans ever made government smaller on the federal level? What is the outcome of them attempting to do so? It is a great line that touches Republicans in their private places, but when the rubber hits the road they don't have the support to kill the much needed departments they talk about targeting.
I'm quoting this because, because in a rare glimpse of a low probability event, New Era and I agree on something.
Both the republicans and the democrats are Statists. Dirty, dirty Statists.
So the orange dude with a dead ferret on his head isn't too weird looking to be President?
This post has not received enough thanks. Well done.
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