The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Acey]

Yeah I don't it as possible. It's just me clicking at the map trying to find a Trump win, as opposed to something actually plausible.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Final daily tracking numbers:

IBD/TIPP: Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 8, Stein 2
LAT/USC: Trump 47, Clinton 44
ABC/WaPo: Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Well sure... But Trump has a much better chance of winning both Florida and North Carolina than he does of winning either of Michigan or Wisconsin. The only scenario where he wins Michigan is if the polls are way off and he is winning the national popular vote by 4 or 5 points, in which case he likely wins all of those states. Wisconsin and Michigan are demographically pretty similar (I believe Wisconsin is slightly whiter and more rural overall), so if they tip, I think they tip together.

Michigan in the democratic primary went hard for Bernie and the polling was way off. It's also demographicly positive for trump and fits in with his anti trade rhetoric.

If there is a surprise that's where it comes from.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GGG

Michigan in the democratic primary went hard for Bernie and the polling was way off. It's also demographicly positive for trump and fits in with his anti trade rhetoric.

If there is a surprise that's where it comes from.

I probably wasn't clear; my point was that if he wins Michigan due to favourable demographics, I think he wins Wisconsin too, which is statistically more rural and white than Michigan.