The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[direwolf]

Clinton looking much better on 538 this evening. She's now at 71%, with Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada all leaning Democrat.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus

[transplant99]

Yeah looking through all kinds of polls etc tonight, there is little doubt Clinton wins fairly easily. Large media may say something else but they do need some drama to really cash in on tomorrow nights proceedings.

She is a horrible horrible choice but the egomaniacal greasebucket is even worse.

[Wormius]

I really hope that the media was just inflating Trump's actual chances at the presidency to make this "interesting" and bring in viewers.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Clinton looking much better on 538 this evening. She's now at 71%, with Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada all leaning Democrat.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...d=rrpromo#plus

71.5 to 28.5 now!!!!!!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I suppose take this for what it's worth



https://twitter.com/CGasparino/statu...16609977544706

So... I guess that means Trump's internals show him losing the election, which is what would happen if he wins New Hampshire but loses Florida.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Take this for what it's worth, but Michael McDonald is the University of Florida professor behind the early vote tracker that I've been posting: here is his take on what will happen tomorrow, based on his read of the early vote, plus some assumptions:
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/12853864

I think he makes some interesting points. I doubt Clinton wins Iowa, as that would mean a "bigly" polling miss in that state. But I think his assessment of North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada is probably bang on.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Take this for what it's worth, but Michael McDonald is the University of Florida professor behind the early vote tracker that I've been posting: here is his take on what will happen tomorrow, based on his read of the early vote, plus some assumptions:
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/12853864.

Hispanic early voting turnout is up an astounding 435,800 votes over 2012 (+86.9%)

Wow!

[Acey]

If Clinton gets FL, CO and NV, which seems likely, then Trump needs MI, PA, NC and NH to win. Tough path for him.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by Acey

If Clinton gets FL, CO and NV, which seems likely, then Trump needs MI, PA, NC and NH to win. Tough path for him.

I dont think even that gets Trump to 270

edit, maybe it does with all of NE

[Acey]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

I dont think even that gets Trump to 270

I did bother to check first:



Clinton losing FL is necessary for the day to be interesting.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Trump needs FL. He starts to need MI and PA if he can't get NC. But FL and NC gives him a chance, without them he needs something unexpected.

Speaking of unexpected, if Acey's map happens it could actually come down the Alaska. Polling there has it within 3-4 points. Imagine staying up all night for Alaska results...

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by GGG

That's a good leak for motivating the base.

Can his base get any more motivated? Is there anyone in a Make America Great Again hat who is going into tomorrow thinking 'nah I'll sit this out'?

[photon]

Motivate them to vote twice.

[photon]

Clinton with the early lead!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/pol...VbK/story.html

Here's what the map would look like if only people in Dixville Notch voted.



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...57359579086848

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Speaking of unexpected, if Acey's map happens it could actually come down the Alaska. Polling there has it within 3-4 points. Imagine staying up all night for Alaska results...

Please God no. The other thing is that Iowa is leaning blue per early voting - Trump can't lose it on my map or there's pretty much zero chance. Inceasingly, the only path to a Trump win seems to be with a FL win.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Romney got a vote in Dixville lol. Of course he did.

[Acey]

If Trump wins FL and NC, then it could get ugly. A MI / PA split would then win it in the tie, even with IA/NH blue.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

As a final note on early voting, at least 46 million people have already voted as of Election Day "eve." That is about 35% of the 135 million or so that are eventually expected to vote. That number will grow as numbers trickle in.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Senator Clay Davis]

I would think that number would be over 50% if every US state had early voting. That's basically Trump's hope with Michigan and Pennsylvania is they don't do early voting like other states so he is hoping for a day of victory.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Acey

If Trump wins FL and NC, then it could get ugly. A MI / PA split would then win it in the tie, even with IA/NH blue.

Well sure... But Trump has a much better chance of winning both Florida and North Carolina than he does of winning either of Michigan or Wisconsin. The only scenario where he wins Michigan is if the polls are way off and he is winning the national popular vote by 4 or 5 points, in which case he likely wins all of those states. Wisconsin and Michigan are demographically pretty similar (I believe Wisconsin is slightly whiter and more rural overall), so if they tip, I think they tip together.