2021/2022 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[agulati]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

I was responding to the top part of AT77 post just above where he called Coleman being on the wrong side of 30 which was laughable to me because he’s not even half way into being 30. I always took that saying as being into the latter part of the decade ‘he’s on the wrong side of 30’ means he’s past 35 or whatever. My poor attempt at humour honestly Buff apologies for the confusion!

The way I have always seen that is under 30 and over 30. I thought that was the only way it was used.

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by AT77

Coleman is absolutely a part of those examples. He’s also on the wrong side of 30, and he’s not worth nearly $5 million a year for 6 more seasons. That contract will be horrible after the next 2-3 years.

And Toffoli was on a 19 goal pace this season lol. See? Inconsistent. Just because he’s signed for 2 more years doesn’t make it a better deal considering his inconsistency, and just because he won a cup with a team that was led by guys like Kopitar, Doughty, Carter, Williams, Quick, etc, doesn’t mean he’s a certified winner. What does he contribute more to winning than the guys I mentioned? Those guys actually have some star power to their name, and for good reason. There’s nothing special about Toffoli to justify a 1st round pick and have him play on the 3rd line, as that is an absolutely a waste. He’s slow and so are Monahan and Lucic on the 3rd line. A 2nd for him in that package would have been sufficient, especially if he’s not in our top 6. He’s a decent piece, but slow and going on the wrong side of 30 soon and very inconsistent, thus not worth a 1st as he doesn’t put us over the top to justify the 1st but for some reason you guys were absolutely in love with the thought of getting him regardless of what it took. So yes, it’s a waste of a 1st which should be used to get a star player that puts us over the top and can play in our top 6, not play on the 3rd line with 12 minutes a game.

I think you over-estimate the value of a late first pick. Looking at the last three drafts, these are all the Flames late (picked 15th or later) first round picks for the last 20 years:

22 Emile Poirier
28 Morgan Klimchuk
21 Mark Jankowski
23 Tim Erikson
25 Greg Neimsz
24 Mikael Backlund
26 Leland Irving
26 Matt Pelech
24 Kris Chucko

So, they landed one in nine late first round picks. The rest were marginal players or complete busts.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by agulati

The way I have always seen that is under 30 and over 30. I thought that was the only way it was used.

That's what I always assumed too. On your 30th bday, you were on the wrong side of 30. The right side of 30 is less than 30.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

I was responding to the top part of AT77 post just above where he called Coleman being on the wrong side of 30 which was laughable to me because he’s not even half way into being 30. I always took that saying as being into the latter part of the decade ‘he’s on the wrong side of 30’ means he’s past 35 or whatever. My poor attempt at humour honestly Buff apologies for the confusion!

That might work if you said the "wrong side of his 30s"...but I've never heard an expression like that.

[Heavy Jack]

https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com...ong+side+of+30

be (on) the wrong side of (some age) (redirected from are the wrong side of 30)
be (on) the wrong side of (some age)
To be older than a certain age.
Why is she dressing like a teenager when she is clearly the wrong side of 40?
I'm sore after every workout these days, so I'm definitely on the wrong side of 30!

This is how I always took that saying

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

I think you over-estimate the value of a late first pick. Looking at the last three drafts, these are all the Flames late (picked 15th or later) first round picks for the last 20 years:

22 Emile Poirier
28 Morgan Klimchuk
21 Mark Jankowski
23 Tim Erikson
25 Greg Neimsz
24 Mikael Backlund
26 Leland Irving
26 Matt Pelech
24 Kris Chucko

So, they landed one in nine late first round picks. The rest were marginal players or complete busts.

Isn't that more of an indictment of a single team's drafting record over the years than any proof that bottom half of the 1st round is overvalued? Clearly top 15 picks are more valuable but plenty of really good players get taken after.

[devo22]

we clearly need to trade our late 1sts every year and stockpile 4th rounders instead.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Isn't that more of an indictment of a single team's drafting record over the years than any proof that bottom half of the 1st round is overvalued? Clearly top 15 picks are more valuable but plenty of really good players get taken after.

From a quick glance at history by pick I'd say early 20s picks have:

20% top half roster player
40% bottom half roster player
40% bust or <300 career games

With the odds skewing slightly with each pick...by 30 it's probably closer to a 10/35/55 breakdown.

[powderjunkie]

Picks 21-23 from 1990*-2015**

Spoiler!

*I consider 1990 a reasonable cutoff for 'modern drafting'
**it's probably possible to slot a few guys since 2015, but I've just left them all out. A few guys drafted 2010-2015 could still go up or down a level, but it gives a rough idea:

Top 1/3 of Roster - 15/78 = 19%(top 4 F; top 2 D; 1A G)
1991 Ray Whitney 23
1993 Todd Bertuzzi 23
1993 Saku Koivu 21
1990 Bryan Smolinski 21
1997 Scott Hannan 23
2003 Ryan Kesler 23
1991 Dean McAmmond 22
2006 Claude Giroux 22
1996 Marco Sturm 21
1998 Simon Gagne 22
2007 Max Pacioretty 22
2008 Jordan Eberle 22
2005 Tuukka Rask 21
2006 Semyon Varlamov 23
2015 Brock Boeser 23

Middle 1/3 of Roster - 17/78 = 22% (1B or very good backup)

2001 Tim Gleason 23
1992 Grant Marshall 23
2000 Anton Volchenkov 21
2003 Mark Stuart 21
2004 Andrej Meszaros 23
1990 Jiri Slegr 23
1999 Nick Boynton 21
2007 Riley Nash 21
1993 Anders Eriksson 22
2010 Riley Sheahan 21
2013 Andre Burakovsky 23
2014 Robby Fabbri 21
2014 Kasperi Kapanen 22
2015 Colin White 21
2015 Ilya Samsonov 22
2012 Mike Matheson 23
1995 Brian Boucher 22

Bottom 1/3 of Roster - 14/78 = 18% - or short mid-roster career (e.g. Wolski)
2009 John Moore 21
2002 Sean Bergenheim 22
2001 Colby Armstrong 21
2012 Olli Maatta 22
2010 Mark Pysyk 23
2013 Frederik Gauthier 21
2004 Wojtek Wolski 21
1995 Sean Brown 21
2002 Ben Eager 23
2000 David Hale 22
1999 Steve McCarthy 23
2002 Anton Babchuk 21
1998 Mathieu Biron 21
2012 Mark Jankowski 21

Bust(ish) - 32/78 = 41%
1998 Milan Kraft 23
2011 Stefan Noesen 21
2003 Marc-Antoine Pouliot 22
2001 Jiri Novotny 22
2005 Nicklas Bergfors 23
2009 Jordan Schroeder 22
2011 Joe Morrow 23
2007 Jonathon Blum 23
2010 Jarred Tinordi 22
2009 Tim Erixon 23
2005 Matt Lashoff 22
1997 Mika Noronen 21
1994 Yan Golubovsky 23
2006 Bob Sanguinetti 21
2000 Nathan Smith 23
1991 Trevor Halverson 21
2004 Lukas Kaspar 22
1999 Maxime Ouellet 22
2013 Emile Poirier 22
1990 Ryan Hughes 22
1995 Miika Elomo 23
1997 Nikos Tselios 22
2008 Tyler Cuma 23
1992 Libor Polasek 21
1992 Curtis Bowen 22
1994 Evgeni Ryabchikov 21
1994 Jeff Kealty 22
1996 Jeff Brown 22
1996 Craig Hillier 23
2008 Anton Gustafsson 21
2011 Tyler Biggs 22
2014 Conner Bleackley 23

I'm surprised how close my spitball estimation above was! Obviously you can argue a few guys up/down, but mostly between the middle/bottom 1/3 where it's not even that important.

[pokerNhockey]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Isn't that more of an indictment of a single team's drafting record over the years than any proof that bottom half of the 1st round is overvalued? Clearly top 15 picks are more valuable but plenty of really good players get taken after.

In 2015 SN did an analysis which shows the relative value of different pick slots. They estimated that the 20th pick is worth about 0.25pts/gp and the 32nd 0.17pts/gp if they make the NHL. Only 2 draft slots out performed the expected value, with both expecting about 0.25pts/gm.

There is definitely value in having that points expectation at 18 vs the same player at 30. For a team gearing up to make a run, there is also considerable value to those points being highly likely now vs a 40% chance of becoming that down the road.

Presumably the science behind drafting has gotten better, and I do personally think the Flames right now are above average in their drafting, so I think this is likely a conservative estimate both for the league in general at this point and moreso for the Flames.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/

Toffoli averages 0.7pts/gm this year. His goals alone are comparable to the 20th pick at 0.24g/gm! I would guess any age concerns over his contract will be offset by the effects of playing in a better situation.

These picks have a probability of playing in the NHL of ~42% at pick 20 and ~37% at pick 32 using a threshold of 200 GP. That is about what Toffoli will play under this contract. Which is team friendly.

I think a Toffoli is absolutely the type of player you are willing to spend a late first on if you are the Flames.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by pokerNhockey

In 2015 SN did an analysis which shows the relative value of different pick slots. They estimated that the 20th pick is worth about 0.25pts/gp and the 32nd 0.17pts/gp if they make the NHL. Only 2 draft slots out performed the expected value, with both expecting about 0.25pts/gm.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...l-draft-picks/

That article is interesting...pts/gp isn't a great metric unless isolated only to forwards (even then it's limited). Too bad their gp metric was 60/100/200; something like 100/300/500 would have been more interesting.

[dino7c]

Some people will be getting a reality check by deadline time IMO

Guys like Miller and Laine aren't actually available unless its a absolute haul...almost zero chance either move

late first isn't getting any "star" player unless there is a major prospect attached

[Stanley]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Some people will be getting a reality check by deadline time IMO

Guys like Miller and Laine aren't actually available unless its a absolute haul...almost zero chance either move

late first isn't getting any "star" player unless there is a major prospect attached

Yea no kidding...a late first might get you Ben f-ing Chiarot...

[djsFlames]

Miller looks good. Imo head and shoulders above anybody else up front on the Canucks.

Hope they #### up the deal. Or fail to get assets for him altogether before he expires next season because they make the ask too high.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

I was responding to the top part of AT77 post just above where he called Coleman being on the wrong side of 30 which was laughable to me because he’s not even half way into being 30. I always took that saying as being into the latter part of the decade ‘he’s on the wrong side of 30’ means he’s past 35 or whatever. My poor attempt at humour honestly Buff apologies for the confusion!

I think you completely missed my joke.

[chummer]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1497362265414139906

[AustinL_NHL]

^ obviously hope it's not serious for Lehner bit Vegas deserves all the bad luck in the world

[Ashasx]

Don't think Vegas will be too upset when they add Fleury again. Lehner hasn't been great this year.

[chummer]

^^ Yup, also drives the price up for the Coilers.

But I still don't think Fleury would waive to go there

[Buzzard]

Originally Posted by chummer

^^ Yup, also drives the price up for the Coilers.

But I still don't think Fleury would waive to go there

I'm doubtful he would also, but one less goalie on the market makes whoever Edmonton's eyeing up that much more expensive.