getting a little tired of the crack/meth heads

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by blankall

Stating that violent crimes are down 2.5% from 2018 also ignores the massive jump in violent crimes between 2013 and 2017:

https://regionaldashboard.alberta.ca...m=1998&to=2017

2013: 8099
2017: 11704

Starting in around 2013, something's definitely been happening, and it's not just isolate to Calgary.

Stats can be manipulated quite easily to achieve the desired outcome.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Stats can be manipulated quite easily to achieve the desired outcome.

How can we manipulate the stats so that innocent Calgarians aren't randomly stabbed, threatened, or assaulted while taking transit or walking downtown? This would be a desired outcome.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

You literally reiterated what I said.

The succinct fact is, per capita violent crime has gone down by -2.5% in Calgary between 2018-2022.

Stating anything else is manipulation/creating a narrative.

Honest question (and sorry for not looking myself) - what is the methodology on these stats? Is it charges laid, or convictions?

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by chemgear

How can we manipulate the stats so that innocent Calgarians aren't randomly stabbed, threatened, or assaulted while taking transit or walking downtown? This would be a desired outcome.

It was a poke about how Psycnet said stats are stats and can’t be manipulated, but he had literally manipulated (cherry picked) stats.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by blankall

Stating that violent crimes are down 2.5% from 2018 also ignores the massive jump in violent crimes between 2013 and 2017:

https://regionaldashboard.alberta.ca...m=1998&to=2017

2013: 8099
2017: 11704

Starting in around 2013, something's definitely been happening, and it's not just isolate to Calgary.

Instagram gained popularity in early 2013 and it started making people violent.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

It was a poke about how Psycnet said stats are stats and can’t be manipulated, but he had literally manipulated (cherry picked) stats.

Ahh, I did not follow that. My ignorance.

In the meantime, I saw this and their first priority better be making sure these vests are knife proof.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/need-some...dors-1.6344010

Calgary Transit is looking for a local artist who can help give its transit ambassador vests "some pizzazz."

Ambassadors help customers find their way and answer questions they might have, providing information on both planned and unplanned service disruptions.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Stats can be manipulated quite easily to achieve the desired outcome.

I know you're trying to be clever, but there is some truth to this. Especially as a heading like "violent crime" is going to be very dependent on reporting. Reporting trends change over time.

Other stats are not so easily manipulated. For example shootings and stabbings. You either got shot by a bullet or you didn't, and with the exception of people involved in crime or some domestic incidents, almost all of those incidents will get reported.

Interestingly enough, while knife and gun crimes are up in Calgary, actual homicides are not:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=3510007101

This could fit in with the narrative of random non-targeted stabbings though. A lot of the random knife crimes seem to involve a quick stabbing and then the perpetrator fleeing.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Stats always tell the whole story; the story people are trying to formulate is one based off of fear rather than data.

People love to assign narratives to numbers, but that doesn't make the narrative fact.

No, stats don't always tell the whole story.

For instance, if all 700 of those increased assaults were stabbings and 100% of the assailants were unknown to the victim (i.e. random), that is a different story than if 100% of the assaults were instead something entirely different, say domestic cases where 100% of the victims and assailants knew each other.

Or, if next year, all 12,000 (or whatever) cases of assault were between sibblings and involved nerf guns, we'd have a completely different situation and problem to solve than if all 12,000 cases were completely random acts of rock throwing.

Instead we have what seems to be an increase in random assaults perpetrated at random between strangers. But if you don't want to look beyond the headline number, see a decrease and think everything's a-OK, I don't know what to tell you.

As usual, numbers only tell part of the story and context is everything.

[WhiteTiger]

Perhaps of some help

https://www.calgary.ca/cps/statistic...l-reports.html

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

It was a poke about how Psycnet said stats are stats and can’t be manipulated, but he had literally manipulated (cherry picked) stats.

Cherry picked straight from the CPSs own external reporting and their internal choice of aggregation even.

The original claim was the term "Violent Crime", which is an aggregate subsection (that I had linked to into the other thread and WhiteTiger has again linked above). But do go on.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by blankall

Except when it's not:

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...-levels-police



It's pretty easy to lump a bunch of different types of crime into one heading and then state the rate is either going up or down.

The fact is that there are more stabbings and shootings in Calgary lately.

Amusing that the only reference was an article from July that said they were "on track" to exceed knife stats from years previous.

Where's the end of year follow up where this was surpassed? Or was an early year spate blown out of proportion but its in CPS best interest to release commentary without actual drilldown stats to keep public fear high and coffers full?

[81MC]

Originally Posted by blankall

Stating that violent crimes are down 2.5% from 2018 also ignores the massive jump in violent crimes between 2013 and 2017:

https://regionaldashboard.alberta.ca...m=1998&to=2017

2013: 8099
2017: 11704

Starting in around 2013, something's definitely been happening, and it's not just isolate to Calgary.

It also doesn’t account for the number of otherwise innocent/unprovoked victims, which seems rather tough to find data on? I say there’s a big difference between being randomly attacked and having an opposing gang member shoot you.

It’s also interesting that ‘perception isn’t reality’ when we’re talking about real tangible threats to a physical body, but perception is reality if we’re talking about mean words and micro aggressions and whatever the hell. If someone doesn’t feel safe walking to their car after work, that’s as real and important (id argue way more) as if they feel physiologically unsafe while at work.

Regarding repeat offenders, the biggest failure and shame is domestic violence. Society seems to value aggressive criminal men’s rights to be free more than a woman’s right to not be repeatedly victimized or killed. An absolutely nauseating amount of females are victimized by perps who have already been charged or convicted of violent or weapons offences. Shameful.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

It was a poke about how Psycnet said stats are stats and can’t be manipulated, but he had literally manipulated (cherry picked) stats.

I literally just pulled out the raw data count.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by 81MC

It’s also interesting that ‘perception isn’t reality’ when we’re talking about real tangible threats to a physical body, but perception is reality if we’re talking about mean words and micro aggressions and whatever the hell. If someone doesn’t feel safe walking to their car after work, that’s as real and important (id argue way more) as if they feel physiologically unsafe while at work.

This is some weird logic. Being in fear of something with a low probability of occurring is as silly as being scared of flying for fear of crashing. The odds and reality don’t support it. You never hear about the flights that land safely, just like you don’t hear about all of the people who go downtown and take the train somewhere and aren’t violently assaulted.

I mean, I could understand a fear of being assaulted if there was something that supported some moderate probability of it happening, in which case, I’d avoid downtown and the public transit, but perpetuating a narrative that it is unsafe and people should be scared for their lives isn’t helpful.

[SportsJunky]

I randomly ended up in a conversation with a cop last night at a school event both our kids were in. He says he will never let his children take transit in this city. He says it is very dangerous and unsafe.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

lol

[SportsJunky]

Is that lol aimed at me, Cecil? I thought it might be interesting to hear this guy's point of view. It was just a random conversation but I thought it pertained to what we've been discussing here.

[PsYcNeT]

I mean most, if not all, cops are some variant of conservative, and conservatives in general have always been fearful of public transit so it seems kind of like a "no duh" sort of thing.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

I mean most, if not all, cops are some variant of conservative, and conservatives in general have always been fearful of public transit so it seems kind of like a "no duh" sort of thing.

Now there’s a LOL post

[Hack&Lube]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...oval-1.6803218

Vancouver just cracked down on their tent city. The last time this happened in Calgary:

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...-homeless-camp

‘It's not something we'll stand for’: Mayor Gondek angrily denounces clearance of homeless camp