[PST] Quarter Finals: Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets - HABS WIN SERIES 4-0

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I suspect you are right.
But dear lord what does that say about the Jets?
And does that say about the Oilers?

Not sure about the Jets.

But it does say everything we've been saying about the Oilers for years.

[AC]

In addition to showing how bad Edmonton is collectively, these 2 series also highlights the difference between Carey Price and Mike Smith.

Turns out there's a pretty significant gap there...

[dino7c]

I thought the Knights/Avs would pound the Leafs too so the Habs squeaking one out against them doesn't change anything.

They were 18th out of 31 teams. I suppose they have a chance, would be the biggest upset in NHL history though IMO.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yes that would have been an accurate statement

But I had already made an accurate statement

Bergevin signed 3 RWs

And won 24 games...they were extremely fortunate to be a playoff team. Even more fortunate last year considering they were 12th.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I am seeing a lot of arguments that go like this

- result happens
- concoct and imagine an alternate scenario
- state that if that scenario was reality, the result would be different

This has been used with the regular season, round 1 and round 2 so far.

Tavares did not get a point in the game he played. Auston Matthews was held to 1 goal. The Jets lost the game that Scheifele played. Either way here we are. The Habs are in the semifinals

Eventually you will most likely be right, Montreal like 30 other teams won’t win the Cup. There’s a slim chance they do, but odds are eventually most likely against them

It’s no way to win a jury trial, that’s for sure.

But you can’t remove #1Cs (both JT and Scheifele are) from a playoff roster without expecting cascading effects throughout the lineup.

Montreal gets full marks for seizing their opportunity - if you get to play these teams without key pieces, you’ve got to make them pay.

The 2004 Flames were the same way.

They got to play a Bertuzzi-less Canucks squad who went down to their 3rd string goalie.

Steve Yzerman was badly hurt in their second round series against Detroit.

Now that they’re into round 3, they have a 1 in 4 chance at glory, and their goalie is Carey Price.

They could pull it off.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by dino7c

And won 24 games...they were extremely fortunate to be a playoff team. Even more fortunate last year considering they were 12th.

Yes. They were given a hand to play and did what was required. That’s all that matters

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Yeah as someone else mentioned, the Habs run actually reinforces the mistaken approach the Flames have to "just get in and see what happens".
Though I would also say that if you are going to take that approach you better have a world class goalie.
It'll be interesting to see how they do in the semi finals and if they turn into a pumpkin.

There is nothing "mistaken" about it IMO.

The entire goal of the regular season is to make the playoffs, for every single team in the league.

Using Montreal as an example, sure Price was lights out against the Leafs, but I'd wager Reto Berra himself could have handled the Jets. The whole TEAM has committed to each other and to their game plan.

Now they have a confidence, as a group, that they cannot be beat. Whether they win it all or not at this point remains to be seen, but they have done so much more than anyone expected that just having the chance (ie getting in) was the most important thing in the whole run.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by habernac

What happens to those teams when they run into a squad that plays great defense? I guess we'll see.

They already are.

Both of those teams are as good or better defensively than the Habs and they're playing each other. They are also relentless on the rush, which will take its toll on the Habs defense pretty quickly.

Their best chance is to hope they beat each other up so badly that they have nothing left. Then they might make it look at least competitive.

[Erick Estrada]

Anything can happen but I would argue Montreal couldn't manufacture a winning record in a division that lacks a single elite team and now they will face one for the first time this season. I can see them keeping a few games close but there's going to be games against either the Avs or Knights where the flood gates open. It's not just the talent disparity that they are up against as the speed and intensity of play of those two teams is going to be a big adjustment as the North Division was slow, plodding hockey. Maybe if the officiating is poor (always a possibility) and the whistles are put away they can slow the games down as that's probably their only hope.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

Are right shot forwards better than left shot forwards. 6/10 top scorers in regular season were left shot forwards, so what is the magic that RS have?

It's not that RHS is better than LHS per se. It's just that the Flames are really lacking any RHS in their top 3 lines! However, if you look back at teams that have won and the team that the Flames have won with, they have depth with RHS players. Seems like LHS players are so abundant in the league that they're just a dime a dozen. You'd think that in a population with 90% right handers in the world, the RHS would be more prevalent - it's like the reverse in the NHL.

As for someone shooting from the point, I would say some, if not most RHS have the hardest/fastest shots. Al-McInnis, Shea Webber, Ovechkin, Brett Hull, Stamkos, and even Iggy. You can counter that with LHS guys like Chara, Iafrate, etc, but my thinking is that if you're naturally right handed and you shoot right, chances are, you're already stronger on the right arm than the left. However, if you're naturally right handed and shoot left...not sure how that works LOL.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by habernac

I hope whoever they play takes them as lightly as you are.

Pointing out that teams have better defensive and offensive records = taking them lightly. Okay

[dino7c]

The gap is getting wider too IMO. I would guess that 75% of kids in my 7 year olds league shoot left.

[Jacks]

Montreal is probably an underdog to every other team left and I think they will get beat fairly easily.

Mind you, that's the same thing almost everyone said about them against Toronto and Winnipeg too.

We'll see, team defence and an all star goalie can carry a team a long way in the playoffs. I'm not actively rooting for the Habs but I don't mind if they win more.

[Toonage]

I've always said I don't want another Canadian team winning the cup unless its Flames.

I feel like I could be waiting an awful long time.

The Habs are in the final four now. I'll back em.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Montreal is probably an underdog to every other team left and I think they will get beat fairly easily.

Mind you, that's the same thing almost everyone said about them against Toronto and Winnipeg too.

We'll see, team defence and an all star goalie can carry a team a long way in the playoffs. I'm not actively rooting for the Habs but I don't mind if they win more.

Probably! They were 18th overall, likely the biggest underdog in history.

I doubt 1 vs. 18 has ever happened let alone in round three

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I’m getting confused. Are we comparing Anderson to Domi or Mangiapane?

So Bergevin arguably sold high on Domi, who has a similar 5.3 cap hit. Anderson had the same 24 points as Domi but 17 were goals

(And as for comparing players, at those salaries, it’s more like the Lucic Neal swap, just both guys are better than them and are still on the front 9. So why we pick Mangiapane is convenient in that he is best bang for the buck)

Bergevin did trade a C for a RW. (Imagine that)

I was just thinking it’s pretty basic stuff. Actually getting top 9 right wingers to fill the right wing roster holes

And having team success

Bergeven went out and did what Burke told the Flames to do. They had a bunch of smaller forwards that were pretty good, he went out and got bigger and tougher... add Anderson, Perry, Staal and all the sudden the Habs are a Heavy team. Gallagher has his back covered pretty much at all times.

The Jets tried to run them but they were big enough to take the hits and keep on playing brave.

Change Ryan, and Dube with Anderson, Perry, and Staal and all the sudden the Flames are heavy team up front with a tiny defense compared to the Habs.

[DeluxeMoustache]

On the theme ‘anything can happen’, Calgary did do a lot better as 8th seed than they did as first

Out of the last 10 cups, SC winners by seed in their conference
1 - CHI (2013)
2 - TBL (2020), PIT (2017), PIT (2016)
3 - WAS (2018), BOS (2011)
4 - CHI (2015)
5 - STL (2019)
6 - LAK (2014)
7 -
8 - LAK (2012)

The breakdown seems to be leaning toward star laden organizations up top, then a handful of teams that finished lower with good team game and hot goalie that got hot at the right time. Not an insignificant number

[Jiri Hrdina]

Part of the "anything can happen" approach is that maybe you have a lucky run but those teams tend to fall back to the pack and out of contending status pretty quick. The teams at the top of that list above, have had very long stretches of being competitive. Teams that go on a fluke run, don't achieve that. The Kings are different mind you as they won two cups and you cant ignore that.

But I'd love to see this franchise become a team that expects to compete regularly - at least for a stretch.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by AC

In addition to showing how bad Edmonton is collectively, these 2 series also highlights the difference between Carey Price and Mike Smith.

Turns out there's a pretty significant gap there...

No! I cant believe it! I wont!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

On the theme ‘anything can happen’, Calgary did do a lot better as 8th seed than they did as first

Out of the last 10 cups, SC winners by seed in their conference
1 - CHI (2013)
2 - TBL (2020), PIT (2017), PIT (2016)
3 - WAS (2018), BOS (2011)
4 - CHI (2015)
5 - STL (2019)
6 - LAK (2014)
7 -
8 - LAK (2012)

The breakdown seems to be leaning toward star laden organizations up top, then a handful of teams that finished lower with good team game and hot goalie that got hot at the right time. Not an insignificant number

Thing is the Habs aren't even 8th in normal alignment. Hard to use historical numbers when its June and they have played against 6 teams.