Flames stars Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau stick together

[Enoch Root]

IF Gaudreau's camp believes they deserve more than Tarasenko and Ekblad (the two largest, post-ELC deals we've seen), then they are in for a holdout and eventual disappointment.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

$60M is the Tarasenko contract: 8 x $7.5M

And I disagree with Boomer - I think they would, and I think they'd be crazy not to.

These are close to my thoughts.

[Roof-Daddy]

Maybe Johnny is willing to gamble on himself for the next 3-5 years with a smaller AAV because he's confident that the contract after that would push the $100 million barrier. (8 years $12.5 AAV)

4 years $25 million ($6.25M AAV), then 8 years $90 million ($11.25M AAV) = 35 years old and $115 million earned.

If he signs an 8 year deal now worth $60 million he might have a hard time getting that extra $55 million on his next contract at 31 years old. 8 years is a much bigger gamble than 4 years would be IMO.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Maybe Johnny is willing to gamble on himself for the next 3-5 years with a smaller AAV because he's confident that the contract after that would push the $100 million barrier. (8 years $12.5 AAV)

4 years $25 million ($6.25M AAV), then 8 years $90 million ($11.25M AAV) = 35 years old and $115 million earned.

If he signs an 8 year deal now worth $60 million he might have a hard time getting that extra $55 million on his next contract at 31 years old.

That is sort of what they were saying and were my thoughts. They were looking at Benn's big contract he signed this year.

I think the Flames might be hesitant because they don't want to dish out those huge dollars later.

[JiriHrdina]

Here is my prediction, which probably won't be popular and is completed uninformed
- We see a short term deal. 2 years.
- At the end of this deal we either see Johnny sign for even longer-term or dealt.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Here is my prediction, which probably won't be popular and is completed uninformed
- We see a short term deal. 2 years.
- At the end of this deal we either see Johnny sign for even longer-term or dealt.

If the rumours are true and the Gaudreau side rejected a Tarasenko deal, I'm inclined to believe you're close to the truth. Which in my mind says Gaudreau wants to play closer to home in his prime.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by dammage79

If the rumours are true and the Gaudreau side rejected a Tarasenko deal...

Where is this coming from in the form of any semi-reputable source?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dammage79

If the rumours are true and the Gaudreau side rejected a Tarasenko deal, I'm inclined to believe you're close to the truth. Which in my mind says Gaudreau wants to play closer to home in his prime.

This was not a rumour. This was the guys on 960 discussing whether they think the Gaudreau camp would sign that deal if it were offered.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

I'm not saying it's not possible Johnny is thinking about closer to home thing down the road, but I think everyone is way too focused on that. Even on the Fan today they were saying that's what they'd think it means.

Could be all the reason, it just part of it, but this to me is likely a dollars thing. It almist always is. His camp feels even the Tarasenko deal might not maximize Johnnys earnings over the next eight years. So unless the Flames are willing to go stupid high right now on a long term, they want a chance to re-negotiate in short order. We can talk all we want about what the compatibles are today, or how UFA status means ability to go east, but most importantly it means your biggest pay day if you reach it in your prime. Johnny strikes as a guy with confidence in himself to hold back on guaranteed long term cash for a bigger pay day down the road.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Maybe Johnny is willing to gamble on himself for the next 3-5 years with a smaller AAV because he's confident that the contract after that would push the $100 million barrier. (8 years $12.5 AAV)

4 years $25 million ($6.25M AAV), then 8 years $90 million ($11.25M AAV) = 35 years old and $115 million earned.

If he signs an 8 year deal now worth $60 million he might have a hard time getting that extra $55 million on his next contract at 31 years old. 8 years is a much bigger gamble than 4 years would be IMO.

First of all, I don't think there is any chance he would get $25M on a 4 year deal. Being all RFA, I think it would be under $20M.

Second, it is a MASSIVE assumption to think he would get an 8 x $90M in 4 years. That would only come after Stanley Cups and competing for scoring titles and Hart trophies.

I would think a bridge deal would be more like Subban's - most recent bridge deals have 3 handles, not 6.

If he were to sign a 2 year, $7M deal, and he continued to be a top 5 - 10 in the league in scoring, he could expect maybe an 8 x $8M or 8 x $8.5M (the Stamkos deal)

If I were Gaudreau, I would look at getting maybe a 7 year deal (which would probably be around $6.75M per), which would tee him up for a full UFA deal when he's 29.

So 7 x $6.75M = $47.25M

Then say another 7 x $10M (or whatever UFA stars are getting at that point)

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Also, to be honest, I'm not really that worried about what Johnny is thinking about where he might want to play in 4 years as a UFA. Let's just say our worst fears are confirmed, because he's not asking for a trade (to our knowledge, so why worry about it unless we start to hear abou it) all he's saying is I'd like my flexibility to have some options as quickly as I'm entitled to them. Beyond that, it really means nothing. A lot can change in 4 years, especially in your 20s. That's a long time for him to get really excited about Calgary, especially if we have success.

Worrying about what a 23 year old might want in 4 years regardless of contract status is very silly.

[JiriHrdina]

The key things for me are this:
- Winning changes a lot. If he signs a short-term deal and the organization starts to become a contender the chances of him wanting to stay go up a lot
- At the same time, the organization must view him as an asset, and if he's not in it for the long-haul, get appropriate value.

This organization has been thin on assets for 20 years, and keeps dealing some of their best assets too late in the game, and for next to nothing
- Regehr
- Iggy
- Bouwmeester
- Phaneuf
Thankfully BT has been much better so far in terms of managing assets. Need that to continue.

[Enoch Root]

CSW: 5 years before he becomes a UFA

[JBR]

I hate to be the stickler, but it's the monkey that gets shocked. It doesn't do the shocking...

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

CSW: 5 years before he becomes a UFA

Really, I keep hearing 4, but even better if it's 5!

[Enoch Root]

On the FAN, they keep saying 4 which is driving me crazy because it keeps perpetuating the misconception. How they haven't been corrected yet is beyond me.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Here is my prediction, which probably won't be popular and is completed uninformed
- We see a short term deal. 2 years.
- At the end of this deal we either see Johnny sign for even longer-term or dealt.

My worries are he is really pushing for a 6 year term which buys a single UFA year and in my opinion does not deserve Gaudreau more than $6M per year. Flames bought 3 years of UFA status from Monahan.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

My worries are he is really pushing for a 6 year term which buys a single UFA year and in my opinion does not deserve Gaudreau more than $6M per year. Flames bought 3 years of UFA status from Monahan.

Yup me too.
I think term is the issue here which is why they likely settle on a short-term deal.
Then the $ probably becomes the issue.
From my POV the Flames need to buy at least 2 years of UFA or go short-term and figure out what the long-term play here is.
Don't paint yourself into a corner.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by JBR

I hate to be the stickler, but it's the monkey that gets shocked. It doesn't do the shocking...

In Soviet Russia, monkey shocks you.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Yup me too.
I think term is the issue here which is why they likely settle on a short-term deal.
Then the $ probably becomes the issue.
From my POV the Flames need to buy at least 2 years of UFA or go short-term and figure out what the long-term play here is.
Don't paint yourself into a corner.

It's 3 or 7 years for me! I really hope for 7 or 8 but if it's a 3 year deal it's a 3 year deal! 😐