[News] Flames development camp - Week of July 4th

[Da_Chief]

Overall score has 6th rounder Phillips better then 6th overall Tkachuk. Not buying it.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Overall score has 6th rounder Phillips better then 6th overall Tkachuk. Not buying it.

You should. Phillips was quite a bit better than Tkachuk in the small sample size that was Dev. Camp.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by New Era

I appreciate the effort from the writer, but I agree. The scale does this a disservice. A 5 point scale does not allow for the nuance or separation that would exist in rating the skill set of these guys. I'd also like to see some comparables of NHL players on that scale, so there is a better point of reference. Woukd like to know how some of these measures were arrived at as well.

Sorry to pile on as I too appreciate the effort, but 23 players were evaluated over a total of what, 9-10 hours of total ice time? That's about 20 minutes of viewing time per player assuming no distractions and players participating in drills/scrimmages 100% of the time. Seems like a lot of detail for such a brief viewing period.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

According to those scores, our prospect pool is in trouble. Which is why I'm questioning the legitimacy of the scores.

I greatly appreciate the write-ups, but strongly disagree with some of these scores (and metrics used, particularly for Goalies).

CG has outlined the value of the score:
1 out of 5 means that particular skill is clearly not NHL caliber.
2.5 is an acceptable NHL ability.
A 5 out of 5 means an exceptional extreme in talent. Gaudreau’s hockey sense would be an example of this.

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Overall score has 6th rounder Phillips better then 6th overall Tkachuk. Not buying it.

Right now. Tkachuk can improve his skating which was dragging down his score. What and how much will Phillips improve? He cannot exactly improve his "aggressiveness" as a 5'6" player and the stickhandling part of his game will be more crucial to his success - can he take his puck skills to the next level?

[Murph]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

CG has outlined the value of the score:
1 out of 5 means that particular skill is clearly not NHL caliber.
2.5 is an acceptable NHL ability.
A 5 out of 5 means an exceptional extreme in talent. Gaudreau’s hockey sense would be an example of this.



Right now. Tkachuk can improve his skating which was dragging down his score. What and how much will Phillips improve? He cannot exactly improve his "aggressiveness" as a 5'6" player and the stickhandling part of his game will be more crucial to his success - can he take his puck skills to the next level?

Regardless of whether it's based on current or projected ability, any assessment that puts Matthew Phillips ahead of Matthew Tkachuk is inherently flawed.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Murph

Regardless of whether it's based on current or projected ability, any assessment that puts Matthew Phillips ahead of Matthew Tkachuk is inherently flawed.

I think the real issue is the metrics. There aren't enough metrics used to actually evaluate a players game and how it translates to the NHL.

For instance size/weight isn't taken into account, but it's a very big deal when talking about NHL ability.

Regardless, the write-ups tell the story that these scores don't so I'm not too concerned.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I think the real issue is the metrics. There aren't enough metrics used to actually evaluate a players game and how it translates to the NHL.

For instance size/weight isn't taken into account, but it's a very big deal when talking about NHL ability.

Regardless, the write-ups tell the story that these scores don't so I'm not too concerned.

Agreed. I'm not putting much stock in the scores.

CG - apologies if it seems I'm being overly harsh. The write ups are great and I appreciate the effort.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Murph

Regardless of whether it's based on current or projected ability, any assessment that puts Matthew Phillips ahead of Matthew Tkachuk is inherently flawed.

It's based on a moment in time at dev camp.
It's not possible Phillips had a better development camp than Tkachuk?

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

CG has outlined the value of the score:
1 out of 5 means that particular skill is clearly not NHL caliber.
2.5 is an acceptable NHL ability.
A 5 out of 5 means an exceptional extreme in talent. Gaudreau’s hockey sense would be an example of this.



Right now. Tkachuk can improve his skating which was dragging down his score. What and how much will Phillips improve? He cannot exactly improve his "aggressiveness" as a 5'6" player and the stickhandling part of his game will be more crucial to his success - can he take his puck skills to the next level?

I missed the part about what the numbers mean, but those metrics don't seem proper for evaluating prospects at a development camp.

According to the values, all but 1 of the listed players have acceptable NHL ability, even though none of them have played against NHLers. I'd expect at max 25% of these guys to play more than 10 games in the NHL, so I'm not sure what we can legitimately take from the scores themselves.

[14]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

You should. Phillips was quite a bit better than Tkachuk in the small sample size that was Dev. Camp.

I was at the camp. This is a false statement.

[StrykerSteve]

*Readiness

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by 14

I was at the camp. This is a false statement.

I too was at the camp, you know.

It's fine to have a differing opinion, just throwing it out there that I too was present at Winsport.

[bigrangy]

I would argue that, right now, Phillips is no worse of a hockey player than Matt Tkachuk. Obviously, they project very differently, but at the junior level, both players have roughly the same impact on a game. Tkachuk as the third wheel on a top line and Phillips as the leader of the second line. It's not even remotely out of the ordinary that he could have had a better dev camp than Tkachuk, and therefore receive a higher rating in whichever ranking is used.

[bax]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

I would argue that, right now, Phillips is no worse of a hockey player than Matt Tkachuk. Obviously, they project very differently, but at the junior level, both players have roughly the same impact on a game. Tkachuk as the third wheel on a top line and Phillips as the leader of the second line. It's not even remotely out of the ordinary that he could have had a better dev camp than Tkachuk, and therefore receive a higher rating in whichever ranking is used.

Tkachuk was just a key player on a memorial cup championship team. Different leagues, but he also put up, what 30 more points? He was also over 2 points per game in the playoffs while playing a physical power forward style. It's pretty easy to see that last season Tkachuk was a far better junior player than Phillips.

And this is not a knock against Phillips. I love that pick.

[polak]

You guys know that players can have good and bad camps? It's a week... Doesn't really mean anything.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by bax

Tkachuk was just a key player on a memorial cup championship team. Different leagues, but he also put up, what 30 more points? He was also over 2 points per game in the playoffs while playing a physical power forward style. It's pretty easy to see that last season Tkachuk was a far better junior player than Phillips.

And this is not a knock against Phillips. I love that pick.

I'd argue that Tkachuk simply got hot at the right time. He was producing nowhere near what he produced in the playoffs in the regular season.

That, or he could just be a playoff monster, and the Flames need some of those.

After looking at the stats a little more though, I do concede that Tkachuk definitely did more to help London win than Phillips did for Victoria, but they were both very key players, and their offensive contributions are closer than one would think. Defensive contributions are slanted in Tkachuk's favor, though.

Using my rough math and limited access to league stats, I come up with Phillips having a primary point on 21% of his teams goals, and Tkachuk having 25% on the same stat. This ignores Tkachuk's (hyper-inflated imo) 2nd assists from playing with Marner and Dvorak. From this, and knowing that Tkachuk is deployed on the first line, and Phillips on the 2nd line, I can assume that their offensive contributions are roughly equal.

Tkachuk had a much better EV GFRel% than Phillips as well, and was 6th best on his team in that stat, versus Phillips being 5th last, indicating that Phillips' line get scored on a lot more than Tkachuk's line, though what drives this difference is difficult to tell. From this though, it would probably be safe to assume that Tkachuk is probably better defensively than Phillips (no surprise), since they both score goals at similar rates but have very different GFRel%.

There is no doubt that Tkachuk is the better prospect, but if you ignore his (very good, and something to get hyped about) playoffs and just consider his regular season (like most statistical analysts do (aside: why?)), his numbers don't really jump off the page at you and make you go wow.

[bax]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

I'd argue that Tkachuk simply got hot at the right time. He was producing nowhere near what he produced in the playoffs in the regular season.

That, or he could just be a playoff monster, and the Flames need some of those.

After looking at the stats a little more though, I do concede that Tkachuk definitely did more to help London win than Phillips did for Victoria, but they were both very key players, and their offensive contributions are closer than one would think. Defensive contributions are slanted in Tkachuk's favor, though.

Using my rough math and limited access to league stats, I come up with Phillips having a primary point on 21% of his teams goals, and Tkachuk having 25% on the same stat. This ignores Tkachuk's (hyper-inflated imo) 2nd assists from playing with Marner and Dvorak. From this, and knowing that Tkachuk is deployed on the first line, and Phillips on the 2nd line, I can assume that their offensive contributions are roughly equal.

Tkachuk had a much better EV GFRel% than Phillips as well, and was 6th best on his team in that stat, versus Phillips being 5th last, indicating that Phillips' line get scored on a lot more than Tkachuk's line, though what drives this difference is difficult to tell. From this though, it would probably be safe to assume that Tkachuk is probably better defensively than Phillips (no surprise), since they both score goals at similar rates but have very different GFRel%.

There is no doubt that Tkachuk is the better prospect, but if you ignore his (very good, and something to get hyped about) playoffs and just consider his regular season (like most statistical analysts do (aside: why?)), his numbers don't really jump off the page at you and make you go wow.

107 points in 57 games in a kids draft year doesn't jump off the page or make you go wow?

Yikes tough crowd

[Bandwagon In Flames]

And we're now comparing a 6th round pick to a 6th overall pick.

This thread has reached it's conclusion.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

And we're now comparing a 6th round pick to a 6th overall pick.

This thread has reached it's conclusion.

Why? Have to respect someone who is simply providing an assessment of a players performance at camp. A proper assessment for that purpose should absolutely not take into account draft position.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by polak

You guys know that players can have good and bad camps? It's a week... Doesn't really mean anything.

This.

While the write ups and reviews are interesting to read I hope nobody is going to take anything from them, or even if they watched the camp itself. After seeing most of these summer camps, going back to when Darryl Sutter ran three during the stanly cup playoffs in 2003 at SAIT, it's almost impossible to take anything away from them. Sit back, enjoy, watch some potential young players. Don't put on your professional scout costume.

The only thing I've ever truly learned was how sad it was for Mike Commodore and JF Damphousse to be at a development camp while their two former teams battled for the Stanley cup.