2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by keenan87

Only considering the two players and no additonal context (roster make up).

Dillon Dube for Alexis Lafrenière.. who says no?

Rangers easily.

I like Dube, but not that much.

[sonq]

Apparently Panthers are willing to let Gudas go and Oilers have shown interest in him

[Tkachukwagon]

Originally Posted by sonq

Apparently Panthers are willing to let Gudas go and Oilers have shown interest in him

Florida needs a first round pick back imo

[Royle9]

Trading away our first + for Laf would be the stereo typical Flames move during a deep draft year with a team who's chances of making the playoffs are still not that great let alone go deep for a run.

Unlike Bennett Laf has been giving extended looks on the top lines in NY and hasnt been able to do anything with it. PP time/big minutes you name it and the guy just hasn't looked good.

Would I take a flyer on him? Sure, why not.
But I wouldn't trade a 1st nor Dube straight up at this point.

With that said, I dont see Calgary coming close on this.
You've got the Chicago rumors as well as Vancouver who both are blowing up their teams before the Flames do.

[Vinny01]

How are the Flames chances of making the playoffs not great?

Imagine getting a 1st overall pick who was a slam dunk selection at the expiry of his ELC for a pick in the 16-32 range?

[Goriders]

The Flames are in the playoffs right now. I’m not sure why their chances are not great. They are also trending up.

[Monahammer]

Agree with many of the takes here:

1. I don't see how the rangers can afford Kane, even at 50%, if Laf is the main piece going out. They are in true cap hell.

2. Our pick is unlikely to be in the top 15 as we are most likely going to make the playoffs. Adding an even strength producer like lafreniere increases those odds. 21 and tons of upside, so it's not like we're trading a 1st for a crusty vet who will up and leave. Stats have been meh so his second contract is probably going to be a bargain too.

3. The whole building through the draft post by Jason on the last page was gold. Absolutely true! We often hear lamentations about how the flames trade their 1sts away too often... but our late round 1sts are extremely unlikely to push any team into contender status. If we want to build a contender through the draft, we will have to be much worse than we have been in decades for at least a few consecutive seasons. Even then there is absolutely no guarantee. You could even draft the best player of an entire generation and still be a total train wreck.

[Royle9]

.566 with a very streaky season thus far.
I wouldn't say they're a lock to make it, Good chances maybe. But its not about making it, its about being good enough to make an impact/taking a deep run.

There are tons of examples of "Slam dunk" 1st rounders who don't amount to much of what they were hyped to be in the NHL, are you honestly certain the guys going to become a star all of a sudden?

Yakupov - Slam dunk 1st overall
Ryan Murray - Slam dunk 1st overall
Galchenyuk - Slam dunk top 3
Griffin Reinhart - 4th o/a
Gudbrandson - 3rd o/a
Puljujarvi - 4th o/a
Dal Colle - 5th o/a
Zacha - 6th o/a
Joulevi - 5th o/a
Bennett - 4th o/a - Ranked #1 N.A draft pick

This happens all the time, just because the guy was drafted 1st O/A doesnt mean he's going to be an NHL superstar. Now take into account he's been giving 3 years of development with top line minutes and talent on a pretty strong team. People drove Bennett out of town for much less lol and now all of a sudden we want to gamble 1st round picks and likely more quality assets for this guy?

Yikes.

[Tkachukwagon]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1610306003710476288

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

30+ years of risk taking and moving out first rounders like they're candy... hasn't exactly resulted in much winning, now has it? Hopefully you understand why fans are gunshy at the idea of trading away a first rounder in a deep draft for a very risky player.

If anything, the successes that the Flames have enjoyed in recent years have been the result of their drafting. Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Dube, Andersson, Lindholm (acquired in Fox trade), Ruzicka, Pelletier, Zary.

Winning teams are built through the draft. See Tampa, Colorado, etc.

I absolutely agree that winning is done through the draft, with the foundation being laid at the top-end of the draft. I’ve long beaten the drum that this team should rebuild through the top-end of the draft - but at some point you have to realize they aren’t going to anytime soon. They just hard-pivoted away from homegrown talent to a group of freshly helicoptered in talent grown elsewhere.

The Flames are old, particularly up-front at the top of the forward group.

Huberdeau - 29
Lindholm - 28
Kadri - 32
Toffoli - 30

One of the reasons why I’m a proponent of trading a 1st, or even multiple 1sts is so that they make the best use of their current roster - but then also push themselves closer to that cliff of oblivion that will be set upon us by Father Time.

Go all in. Spend the living hell out of the future - because ultimately it will force this team to bottom out given the ages at the top of their forward group. There is a reckoning coming to the roster, either realize it harshly and then improve or continue to just hedge and maintain mediocrity. They should have rebuilt after Gaudreau and Tkachuk left, but they didn’t - so now what to do? Accept the bubble position where we’ll sit around 8th in the West for the next few years before falling out and still believing they can make it - or go hard at it right now, and then if you fail make a hard direction change out of necessity.

Shoot your shot. Once the chamber is empty, rebuild through the top of the draft.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't think a middish 1st gets you AF. The Rangers won't be motivated to trade him unless he formerly requests a trade. The upside of the player is still higher than what you will get in the middle of the first. And if he goes on the market, there will be competition and good offers.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think a middish 1st gets you AF. The Rangers won't be motivated to trade him unless he formerly requests a trade. The upside of the player is still higher than what you will get in the middle of the first. And if he goes on the market, there will be competition and good offers.

That's part of the problem, people are saying 1st round pick like that's all its going to take.

It'll cost us our 1st + Coronato and a roster player not named capdump.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Royle9

That's part of the problem, people are saying 1st round pick like that's all its going to take.

It'll cost us our 1st + Coronato and a roster player not named capdump.

No, no one is paying that for Laf at this stage. Two 1sts, one that could still be a lottery (unlikely) and one who is already a well developing PPG+ player in college and USA Hockey star. Not a chance.

1st + but IMO that + is something like Kylington.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Tkachukwagon

https://twitter.com/user/status/1610306003710476288

Merkley was a high skill player in the 2018 draft with some arguing that based on talent alone he should be a top 10 pick. He was reportedly on many teams do not draft lists.

Ryan Merkley was the most polarizing player of the first round, hands down. While he was the first-overall pick of the 2016 OHL Draft and has put up 122 points in 125 games with the Guelph Storm, he was reportedly on a lot of teams’ do-not-draft lists. A first-round — and probably top 10 — talent in a vacuum, Merkley is a high-risk, high-reward prospect who wasn’t even a top-31 pick on draft guru Sam Cosentino’s mock.

There are a few reasons why he’s viewed as such a volatile pick despite all his talent. First, Merkley is an all-offence guy from the blue line at this point and can sometimes be a liability at the defensive end. Second, he’s had a few on-ice incidents that have brought his composure and coachability into question, such as this retaliatory two-handed slash on Daniel Walker that led to a three-game suspension.

Before that, Merkley had an episode in a game in which he turned over the puck multiple times on one power play and then visibly argued at the bench with his coach, Jarrod Skalde, who became so frustrated with his rookie that he banished him to the dressing room for the game.

Merkley’s even been a healthy scratch a few times.

He may have matured since then. Could see a team taking a flyer on him to see if they could harness his potential.

He seems very much like how Flames prospect Jeremie Poirier was touted except there wasn't coachability questions with Poirier.

[MrMike]

How about the Rangers just give us Laf for compensation for Fox

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Royle9

.566 with a very streaky season thus far.
I wouldn't say they're a lock to make it, Good chances maybe. But its not about making it, its about being good enough to make an impact/taking a deep run.

There are tons of examples of "Slam dunk" 1st rounders who don't amount to much of what they were hyped to be in the NHL, are you honestly certain the guys going to become a star all of a sudden?

Yakupov - Slam dunk 1st overall
Ryan Murray - Slam dunk 1st overall
Galchenyuk - Slam dunk top 3
Griffin Reinhart - 4th o/a
Gudbrandson - 3rd o/a
Puljujarvi - 4th o/a
Dal Colle - 5th o/a
Zacha - 6th o/a
Joulevi - 5th o/a
Bennett - 4th o/a - Ranked #1 N.A draft pick

This happens all the time, just because the guy was drafted 1st O/A doesnt mean he's going to be an NHL superstar. Now take into account he's been giving 3 years of development with top line minutes and talent on a pretty strong team. People drove Bennett out of town for much less lol and now all of a sudden we want to gamble 1st round picks and likely more quality assets for this guy?

Yikes.

The Flames are integrating a new core at the top of their roster and have faced a tough schedule. When you are trading your 1st in this scenario it is about making it so the pick you deal is not a top 10 pick.

The 1st 4 players on your list are from a draft over a decade ago that was truly the worst of the past 10 years. Ryan Murray and Yakupov are the same class and you day both were slam dunk 1st overall when they were debated as 1-2 neither was a lock.

If you can get a 21 year old former 1st overall pick a mid pick in the 1st round then it should be done but it will likely take more than that. Lafreniere is getting 1st line minutes over Panarin and Kreider who are LW that slot higher than him in NY? Bennett was certainly not ran out of town for less. Lafreniere outscored any season Bennett had as a Flame last year albeit by a small margin. Bennett had 5 straight years where he couldn’t match his rookie totals and we somehow ran him out of town for less?

What often happens is top picks that don’t do well on the team that drafted them find their offensive game on a new team. Lindholm, Bennett, Strome, Turris are quick examples off the top of my head

[Bleeding Red]

Forget Lafreniere. He's a piece of the package NYR will send to EDM when McD demands a trade.

[Derek Sutton]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I am not going to check your math or anything, but will ask - did you factor in the pro-rating associated with time of year?

capfriendly shows current cap space at ~2.96 but deadline cap space over 7.1

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Agree with many of the takes here:

1. I don't see how the rangers can afford Kane, even at 50%, if Laf is the main piece going out. They are in true cap hell.

The Rangers will be able to add significantly at the dealine without even moving out any salary, not all of Kane's salary but 50% retained is no problem for them. They also have two first rounders this year.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/rangers

[Psytic]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Merkley was a high skill player in the 2018 draft with some arguing that based on talent alone he should be a top 10 pick. He was reportedly on many teams do not draft lists.




He may have matured since then. Could see a team taking a flyer on him to see if they could harness his potential.

He seems very much like how Flames prospect Jeremie Poirier was touted except there wasn't coachability questions with Poirier.

Oilers have no issues with taking on these types. I bet he ends up over there.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Can we also stop the "You win through the draft, look at Colorado and Tampa" statements as if these two team figured out a drafting formula the Flames could emulate.

They drafted elite talent in the top of the draft because they finished at the bottom of the league. They weren't picking in the bottom half of the first when they acquired their elite talent

TB Drafted Stamkos 1st, and Hedman 2nd overall. (They missed on Connolly 6th and Druin 3rd) . Vasilevsky at 19th in 2012 was the one late first they hit on

Colorado drafted McKinnon 1st, Landeskog 2nd, Rantanen 10th, and Makar 4th. Also throw in Byram at 4th overall. Since drafting McKinnon they have 5 first round picks in the top 10

While it is accurate to say these teams "Built through the draft" the reality is they all had multiple top 5 picks, and 5 top 10 picks over a decade, including top 2 picks multiple times.

The Flames "Problem" (If you can call it that) is that we never were terrible. It's not trading late firsts.

Drafting mid/late in the first round did not lead these 2 teams to success.

The point is, 2023 is expected to be a deep draft, and even when picking in the 16-20 range, you still have a decent shot at getting a very good player.

It's worth mentioning that the Flames did draft Benny and Chucky with early firsts, and drafted one of the best forwards in franchise history with a 4th rounder. So to say that the Flames never sucked hard enough to draft high-end talent is somewhat inaccurate.

Drafts are somewhat unpredictable, even at the best of times. Even if you have the best scouting staff, you can take a player that won't amount to anything while passing on a player who goes on to be a superstar in the league. It happens to all teams from time to time. But the first round is more likely to contain future stars than any other round, and having more picks is better than having fewer.

They just hard-pivoted away from homegrown talent to a group of freshly helicoptered in talent grown elsewhere.

Because 2 homegrown high-end talents decided to leave; Tre & his team salvaged what was a very difficult situaiton and kept the team competitive. It's not like the Flames moved out homegrown talents who wanted to stay.

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Go all in. Spend the living hell out of the future - because ultimately it will force this team to bottom out given the ages at the top of their forward group. There is a reckoning coming to the roster, either realize it harshly and then improve or continue to just hedge and maintain mediocrity. They should have rebuilt after Gaudreau and Tkachuk left, but they didn’t - so now what to do? Accept the bubble position where we’ll sit around 8th in the West for the next few years before falling out and still believing they can make it - or go hard at it right now, and then if you fail make a hard direction change out of necessity.

Shoot your shot. Once the chamber is empty, rebuild through the top of the draft.

Cool. So when the team hits the wall and sucks for a decade, good luck getting an arena deal done amid slumping attendance numbers.