11-03-2016, 12:14 PM
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#801
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Didn't push hard enough on undecideds (both Trump and Hillary under 40%), plus the poll actually admits to undersampling Latinos. She is probably still up in Colorado, but it's a 3-4 point race when it looked Hillary safe most of the election. Seems to suggest a lot of Johnson voters are breaking to Trump as the third party vote predictably vanishes.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-03-2016, 12:16 PM
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#802
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Stein also told her supporters to vote for Trump over Hillary.
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11-03-2016, 12:20 PM
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#803
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
Ugh...those aren't good polls for Clinton. However without Florida, Trump is toast. The four latest polls I've read show her being up there (CNN, Quinnipiac, Opinion Savvy, SurveyMonkey).
That Colorado poll is disappointing though. Hillary has been up in pretty much every poll there going back weeks. WTF?
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FBI insinuating that you are a criminal is gonna hurt you in the polls
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GFG
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11-03-2016, 12:26 PM
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#804
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drak
Stein also told her supporters to vote for Trump over Hillary.
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Link?
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11-03-2016, 12:32 PM
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#805
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Link?
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No link. Seems to have been debunked as per snopes. I retract.
But there's also this
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/1...p-Over-Clinton
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The Following User Says Thank You to Drak For This Useful Post:
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11-03-2016, 12:43 PM
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#806
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
FBI insinuating that you are a criminal is gonna hurt you in the polls
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Of course. But every other poll conducted in Colorado after the latest email scandal all showed her being up, which is why I thought this latest one was odd.
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11-03-2016, 01:02 PM
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#807
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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GOTV efforts working?
Yesterday in Florida: Largest number of Black voters (African American & Caribbean voters of any day so far. Roughly 55k. Share up to 12%
https://twitter.com/steveschale/stat...24225548730368
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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11-03-2016, 01:05 PM
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#808
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Our Jessica Fletcher
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Edit: wrong thread
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11-03-2016, 03:04 PM
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#809
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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New batch of polls just came out, all favoring Clinton, except for one that shows a tie in Florida. Looks like it was significant enough to lower Trump's chances by a full percentage point.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../updates/#plus
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11-03-2016, 03:49 PM
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#810
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Clinton has a big lead among new voters, 42-21 in FL/NC/PA
https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL
So looks like Clinton might be the one with the shy voters, not Trump (who never had them in the primaries).
Also interesting from Harry Enten
Magellan has Clinton +6 in CO.
What you'll notice about Magellan in CO, as @nate_cohn found in FL/NC/PA, is that Clinton wins REGISTERED unaffiliated voters.
If that holds in Nevada like it did for Obama, Trump has no real shot in NV based on the early vote trends with so many ballots cast.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...77704220758016
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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11-03-2016, 03:53 PM
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#811
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
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The tie in Florida isn't that bad... it's consistent with their last few polls of the state and an improvement on the prior polls (although a worse result then their prior prior polls). The bad one is actually New Hampshire and the really good one is NC.
Also new polls from Marist Poor result for Clinton in Arizona (Down 5), with a better result in Georgia (Trump only up 1).
Last edited by Parallex; 11-03-2016 at 03:58 PM.
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11-03-2016, 03:54 PM
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#812
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Evan 
UT: Trump 37, Clinton 31, McMullin 24, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Monmouth); Trump 40, McMullin 28, Clinton 20, Johnson 3, Stein 2 (Emerson); Trump 42, Clinton 31, McMullin 21, Johnson 3, Stein (Heat Street/Rasmussen)
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-03-2016, 03:58 PM
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#813
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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It also sounds like Nevada is becoming close to a lock for Hillary with early voting numbers
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-03-2016, 04:00 PM
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#814
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Evan
UT: Trump 37, Clinton 31, McMullin 24, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (Monmouth); Trump 40, McMullin 28, Clinton 20, Johnson 3, Stein 2 (Emerson); Trump 42, Clinton 31, McMullin 21, Johnson 3, Stein (Heat Street/Rasmussen) |
Man, that's a bummer. I was really hoping for a McMullin upset.
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11-03-2016, 04:09 PM
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#815
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
Man, that's a bummer. I was really hoping for a McMullin upset.
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That was only going to happen in the event of an utter Clinton blowout... he'd need Trump completely out of it nationally to get the GOP protest vote and he'd then need some Clinton voters who felt like using their vote to troll the GOP.
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11-03-2016, 04:14 PM
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#816
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex
Also new polls from Marist Poor result for Clinton in Arizona (Down 5), with a better result in Georgia (Trump only up 1).
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That Georgia poll is interesting. If Clinton can somehow flip that state blue, Trump is screwed.
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11-03-2016, 05:31 PM
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#817
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The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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That guy that does the daily Florida EV updates:
I'll be on @maddow tonight talking Florida around 9:30pm.
One thing I'll mention for sure: the Hispanic wave. Another huge day yesterday.
https://twitter.com/steveschale/stat...19568307179522
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
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11-03-2016, 07:15 PM
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#818
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Another new batch of polls show both good and bad news for Clinton, but definitely more on the good side. Trump's chances have dropped down to 33% overall, and Nevada has flipped back over to leaning Democrat.
Florida: +3 (Gravis Marketing) tie (Ipsos)
Colorado: +8 (Ipsos)
North Carolina: Trump +2 (Ipsos) 
Ohio: tie (Ipsos)
Nevada: +12 (Ipsos)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../updates/#plus
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11-03-2016, 07:20 PM
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#819
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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Voter purging, lack of polling stations and voter intimidation doing it's thing in NC.
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11-03-2016, 07:28 PM
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#820
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drak
Voter purging, lack of polling stations and voter intimidation doing it's thing in NC.
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Yea, that certainly appears to be the case. However if these latest polls hold up and Clinton can take Florida, Trump is obviously done. And if she can snag Nevada as well? All hail Madam President.
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