Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by VilleN

This is where I disagree, if Lazar ends up being a good 4th liner for us I think the 2nd rounder was well spent and that the gamble paid off. 2nd rounders have less than a 50% chance of ever becoming an NHL regular. Even if Lazar drops out of the league all-together by next season, he still would have provided roughly the same value that a typical 2nd rounder would provide. It wasn't a very big gamble, and to me the trade isn't really worth dissecting.

I'll bet you the pick the Flames traded that became Alex Formenton scores more points in the NHL next season than Lazar does.

[nik-]

Unless he gets mono.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by VilleN

This is where I disagree, if Lazar ends up being a good 4th liner for us I think the 2nd rounder was well spent and that the gamble paid off. 2nd rounders have less than a 50% chance of ever becoming an NHL regular. Even if Lazar drops out of the league all-together by next season, he still would have provided roughly the same value that a typical 2nd rounder would provide. It wasn't a very big gamble, and to me the trade isn't really worth dissecting.

While this may be true, there is a chance (however slim) that the 2nd rounder becomes a top 6 NHL forward, top 4 NHL defenseman or starting goaltender. There is even an outside chance that player becomes an all-star.

These are things that Lazar basically has a 0% chance of ever becoming. Not to mention, those type of players are much harder to acquire and are almost never acquired cheaply, while on the other hand, quality 4th liners are a dime a dozen.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I'll bet you the pick the Flames traded that became Alex Formenton scores more points in the NHL next season than Lazar does.

It doesn't matter who was picked. Who would the Flames have picked? You can't know that, so speculating is meaningless.The odds of a 2nd rounder becoming an NHL regular are below 50%, that is the value.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I'll bet you the pick the Flames traded that became Alex Formenton scores more points in the NHL next season than Lazar does.

I don't think Formenton is going to be playing in the NHL next year, is he?

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

While this may be true, there is a chance (however slim) that the 2nd rounder becomes a top 6 NHL forward, top 4 NHL defenseman or starting goaltender. There is even an outside chance that player becomes an all-star.

These are things that Lazar basically has a 0% chance of ever becoming. Not to mention, those type of players are much harder to acquire and are almost never acquired cheaply, while on the other hand, quality 4th liners are a dime a dozen.

Lazar had proven that he was capable of playing in the NHL, that made his floor better than that of a typical 2nd rounder. Sure, his ceiling likely isn't as high as some 2nd round picks, but that was the trade-off Tre made. Some may disagree with it, but the value is bang on.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I don't think Formenton is going to be playing in the NHL next year, is he?

I did the math on the average Canadian world junior team and it came down to something like 25% of the roster in the last 20 years got beyond the cup of coffee stage of career.

And that's Canada.

I wouldn't assume Formenton is in that upper quarter.

[The Original FFIV]

Came looking for news on Sam Bennett, found debate on Lazar instead.

While I'm here, worth pointing out that his projection was 'heart and soul forward' in the hockey news draft preview that year.

Given that Treliving has identified compete level as a concern for this team, he perhaps has more intangible value to the Flames than what we see on his stats sheet. Hopefully his game improves to the point where is able to contribute more on his all around game.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I'll bet you the pick the Flames traded that became Alex Formenton scores more points in the NHL next season than Lazar does.

Odd prediction.

Let's compare pre draft and draft+1 years

Lazar
Pre-draft: 61 points in 72 games
Draft+1: 76 points in 58 games

Formenton
Pre-draft: 34 points in 65 games
Draft +1: 48 points in 48 games

What evidence is there that for some reason Formenton will score at the NHL level at all?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

How does this compare to say, Calgary's western conference playoff competitors?

What were the averages in the west this year among teams that made the dance?

Western Conference Playoff Teams:


Top Line : 69 points (85/65/55)
Nash 64/61/54 -26
Wpg 91/70/61 +16
Min 76/67/64 +2
Vegas 78/75/66 +6
Anah 69/61/49 -25
SJ 66/61/46 -32
LA 92/61/47 -5
Col 97/84/62 +38


Second Line : 42 points (48/42/36)
Nash 51/48/42 +15
Wpg 60/57/43 +34
Min 45/37/32 -12
Vegas 60/55/44 +33
Anah 40/38/36 -12
SJ 40/40/37 -9
LA 40/37/26 -23
Col 43/37/34 -12


Third Line : 27 points (32/27/23)
Nash 35/27/25 +4
Wpg 39/29/28 +14
Min 24/23/23 -12
Vegas 37/27/16 -2
Anah 35/27/24 +4
SJ 36/36/32 +22
LA 25/22/15 -20
Col 26/23/22 -11


Fourth Line: 19 points (19/15/13)
Nash 24/19/8 +4
Wpg 21/18/14 +6
Min 22/22/16 +13
Vegas 15/14/13 -5
Anah 16/15/14 -2
SJ 19/14/14 +0
LA 14/11/10 -12
Col 22/18/16 +9

Kings had a very fortunate season.

Flames stand out because they are below league average on all four lines. They need an insertion at the top and the trickle down to make lower lines better as well.

Add to the top, trickle down and boost the bottom.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I did the math on the average Canadian world junior team and it came down to something like 25% of the roster in the last 20 years got beyond the cup of coffee stage of career.

And that's Canada.

I wouldn't assume Formenton is in that upper quarter.

Yes maybe, but he's only 18 still. Its either NHL or junior for him and I would assume junior is the safe bet for next season.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by VilleN

This is where I disagree, if Lazar ends up being a good 4th liner for us I think the 2nd rounder was well spent and that the gamble paid off. 2nd rounders have less than a 50% chance of ever becoming an NHL regular. Even if Lazar drops out of the league all-together by next season, he still would have provided roughly the same value that a typical 2nd rounder would provide. It wasn't a very big gamble, and to me the trade isn't really worth dissecting.

So why not trade away your 2nd rounder every season for an NHL roster player?

You'd thinks fans of the Flames, of all teams, would be painfully aware of the long-term cost of trading away 2nd round picks year after year. You end up with the anemic prospect base this team has endured for most of the last 20 years, and the need to pay or trade for expensive veterans to fill in the depth roster spots. It's a vicious circle that chronically afflicts impatient franchises.

[VilleN]

The difference here, is that Lazar is young enough to be considered a prospect... he doesn’t deplete our prospect pool, he’s part of it.


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[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Odd prediction.

Let's compare pre draft and draft+1 years

Lazar
Pre-draft: 61 points in 72 games
Draft+1: 76 points in 58 games

Formenton
Pre-draft: 34 points in 65 games
Draft +1: 48 points in 48 games

What evidence is there that for some reason Formenton will score at the NHL level at all?

Because Lazar scores so infrequently it will be difficult for formenton to not score more than him if he manages to play ~60 games.

The senators are going to be awful next year barring miraculous trades. What better situation as a young player to come in and play?

How hard is it really to score 12 points in 60 games in the NHL?Stewart and shore combined for half that in just 15 games and they were waiver material.

Only 9 forwards in the whole league who played 60 games scored less than Lazar. It's pretty remarkable if you stop to consider it.

[GranteedEV]

If Lazar were drafted by the Flames, would he have played more NHL games to this point than a guy like Klimchuk or Poirier?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by VilleN

The difference here, is that Lazar is young enough to be considered a prospect... he doesn’t deplete our prospect pool, he’s part of it.

The odds of a player revealing untapped potential decreases sharply year by year. There's a reason the Senators didn't have a problem with letting him go.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by VilleN

The difference here, is that Lazar is young enough to be considered a prospect... he doesn’t deplete our prospect pool, he’s part of it.


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Prospect? I thought he was a regular NHLer?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

If Lazar were drafted by the Flames, would he have played more NHL games to this point than a guy like Klimchuk or Poirier?

Probably? Lazar had NHL level skating.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Prospect? I thought he was a regular NHLer?

He’s young and still developing. Not a prospect per se, but he still holds potential. Although, I’m sure you know what I meant.


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[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Because Lazar scores so infrequently it will be difficult for formenton to not score more than him if he manages to play ~60 games.

The senators are going to be awful next year barring miraculous trades. What better situation as a young player to come in and play?

How hard is it really to score 12 points in 60 games in the NHL?Stewart and shore combined for half that in just 15 games and they were waiver material.

Only 9 forwards in the whole league who played 60 games scored less than Lazar. It's pretty remarkable if you stop to consider it.

Sure. But based on Formenton's junior stats it is equally unlikely that he does any better.