The Risk of Picking First

[united]

First overall also has utility because it affords you the opportunity (as remote as it may be) to trade down and acquire additional draft or player capital if you don't love someone at #1. If the Flames for example viewed the top four as largely interchangeable and got a compelling offer to move down to 4, that is something they likely consider where drafting 4th from the start you get the same player but not the additional asset(s).

Of course, this is more common in other sports where individual players have significantly more value than in hockey in general, but especially as it relates to positions of need.

Remote change of something > no chance of something.

[White Out 403]

When I first saw this thread title, I thought this is exactly what I’ve been worrying about as a Jets fan for the last month. I don’t think there’s a consensus number one anymore. I immediately thought it would be such a Jets thing to happen where we wind up picking the wrong person first overall, and picks two and three wind up being better, or pick one is a bust. I don’t think that’s outside the realm of possibility here. There’s no absolute consensus number one. And frankly, I’d rather the Jets not have to make the decision at all, and instead take third and take whoever’s left from the big three.

What I found shocking was that people were acting like this is some sort of weird thought, or didn’t understand what this guy was talking about. This is a perfectly reasonable thread to discuss, and a perfectly reasonable topic. And he’s frankly completely right.

[Enoch Root]

It's fine to be worried as a fan.

But as an organization that's making the pick, it is absolutely better to have the pick, and choose the player you prefer, than to be 2nd, and settle for the player the other team didn't pick.

There's not debate there.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

If there were any actually great players in that draft, Yak wouldn't have gone number 1.

In an average draft, where would you hope you get players like Forsberg, Hertl, and Rielly?

They are the best players from that draft, and you wouldn't want them with top 5 picks in most years.

I know what I wouldn't do in that draft: trade the chance to get Hertl, Teravainen, Vasilevsky or Wilson in order to get Jankowski and Seiloff.

[Monahammer]

This is such a crazy mentality.

"it is a hard choice so better let someone else make it"

I really really hope you don't live your life this way!

[shutout]

Reminds me of the draft two years ago.
So many people hoping to draft Iginla.
Other contingent thinking he was not worth a top ten pick.
That group hoping someone else would draft him so that he was not an option for the Flames.

[dino7c]

next up, the risk of getting out of bed lol

[shutout]

Its also like the Bennett draft.
Flames picking fourth basically had to just wait until the first three were picked and then go and take the last guy remaining.
They probably would have drafted Bennett with the first pick if they had it.

A lot more angst if they had chosen him first instead of fourth and things had gone sideways.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by shutout

Reminds me of the draft two years ago.
So many people hoping to draft Iginla.
Other contingent thinking he was not worth a top ten pick.
That group hoping someone else would draft him so that he was not an option for the Flames.

The thing with Iginla is he was a draft riser...at one point he was not projected to be a top 10 so it seemed like a hometown reach which is never a good idea.

By the time the draft rolled around it seemed very unlikely he would fall to the Flames pick

[shutout]

Lafreniere the consensus top pick but in hindsight they would have been better off drafting Stuzle. But at the time drafting Stuzle would have created a huge uproar about how stupid the organization is.

(just to be clear I think they are a stupid organization, but this would have been the greater opinion)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by shutout

Its also like the Bennett draft.
Flames picking fourth basically had to just wait until the first three were picked and then go and take the last guy remaining.
They probably would have drafted Bennett with the first pick if they had it.

A lot more angst if they had chosen him first instead of fourth and things had gone sideways.

I think Calgary would have taken Reinhart.

[Teroy]

There are enough concerns about McKenna that I agree, picking him might be a big mistake. I'd be satisfied to pick Stenberg first or get him 2nd, 3rd. or 4th.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by shutout

Lafreniere the consensus top pick but in hindsight they would have been better off drafting Stuzle. But at the time drafting Stuzle would have created a huge uproar about how stupid the organization is.

(just to be clear I think they are a stupid organization, but this would have been the greater opinion)

Rangers are notorious for not being able to develop players. It's been an ongoing issue for 15-20 years now. It didn't matter who they took, they were going to stall out.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think Calgary would have taken Reinhart.

if 3rd they would have taken DraI IMO...Its pretty easy to say you got the guy you would have taken #1 after the fact and the Flames were happy with Bennett but after the pullup thing I think he was always 4th no matter who was picking.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

if 3rd they would have taken DraI IMO...Its pretty easy to say you got the guy you would have taken #1 after the fact and the Flames were happy with Bennett but after the pullup thing I think he was always 4th no matter who was picking.

I'm not sure about their choice between Draisaitl and Bennett. I just think they'd have taken Reinhart first overall - they wanted a centre and had a good D corps, so Ekblad was out. Reinhart was the attractive choice. Of course, he was seen as a disappointment for a while too.

Draisaitl was seen as the bigger body and Bennett was supposed to be Toews. Who knows though - disengage Draisaitl from McDavid and he's a good player but he's got nowhere near the same points. At the same time, while Bennett has his Conn Smythe, he's still not a 1C. But I wonder what he would have done with McDavid. Get a lot of garbage goals probably.