Is Dustin Wolf Rookie of the Year?

[Roof-Daddy]

Wolf probably should win the ROY, but not a chance in hell that he will IMO

[Funkhouser]

For what it is worth, Dom from the Athletic has Wolf as his Calder pick...in a landslide.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/614...norris-trophy/

Based on Net Rating, there is no gap between Macklin Celebrini and Lane Hutson. Picking between the two will be a challenge.

Both have at least 40 points on the season — an impressive feat for both considering Celebrini managed it in 45 games while Hutson is doing it as a defenseman. Both players are major offensive catalysts for their teams with equally strong relative impacts at five-on-five, though Hutson does give a bit more back defensively. Both dazzle beyond just scoring, too, with some electric highlight reels that hint at some tantalizing upside. Both Celebrini and Hutson are already stars in this league, setting a course for superstardom.

But they have not been the best rookies this season.

That honor should belong to Dustin Wolf, who is putting himself in the Vezina conversation as a rookie goaltender. Wolf has almost single-handedly dragged a very poor Flames team into the West wild-card race — that’s how good he’s been. The Calder should be his to lose.

Comparing a skater’s value to a goalie’s value is a challenge. When it comes to awards voting, the difference between the two often has to be overwhelmingly in the goalie’s favor to make up for the difference in opportunity the goalie has to accrue value. Wolf has a strong case with how he’s played this season.

Wolf’s 10.9 goals saved above expected is a top-10 mark among starters, landing in the 85th percentile among all goalies. By that same rubric, Celebrini’s and Hutson’s Net Ratings land in the 65th percentile among skaters. Apples to apples, Wolf comes out ahead by a significant margin. For Wolf to land in the 65th percentile, his GSAx would have to be closer to 5.3.

That difference certainly feels overwhelming enough to have Wolf as the current Calder front-runner.

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Wolf should be the clear runaway favorite, a clear already top 5 player at his position (very arguably the best 5v5 goalie in the NHL).

Celebrini:
- 25 5v5 points (tied 53rd among listed Cs on Natural Stat Trick, tied 107th overall)
- 1.88 p/60 5v5 (53rd among Cs, 112th overall)

San Jose without Celebrini = garbage
San Jose with Celebrini - worst team in the NHL

Franchise player. But not close to being among the best centers in the game just yet, let alone players overall.

Michkov:
- 27 5v5 points (tied 16th among listed RWs, tied 73rd overall)
- 2.1 p/60 5v5 (13th among RWs, 67th overall)

Philadelphia without Michkov = bad
Philadelphia with Michkov = 6th worst Points %

Franchise player. Incredible 5v5 stats. Still not close to among the best players RWs in the game, let alone players. Still not fully counted on his team.

Hutson:
- 23 5v5 points (tied 12th among D)
- 1.21 p/60 5v5 (30th among D)

Montreal without Hutson = hopefully fighting for the playoffs
Montreal with Hutson = in the Playoff hunt

Excellent defenseman, but not close to being among the best D-men)

Now Dustin Wolf:
- .935 SV% 5v5 (2nd in NHL among goalies with 30+ GP)
- 1.87 GAA 5v5 (2nd in NHL)
- 19.80 GSAA 5v5 (3rd in NHL)
- 0.65 GSAA/60 (2nd in NHL)
- .873 HDSV% 5v5 (1st in NHL)
- 10.78 HDGSAA 5v5 (3rd in NHL)
- 0.35 HDGSAA/60 (1st in NHL)

Flames without Dustin Wolf =. worst offensive NHL team team fighting for 32nd
Flames with Dustin Wolf = fighting for a Wild Card spot, comfortably 10-15 spots ahead in the standings then they'd be without him.

These Darren Haynes tweets say all that needs to be said.

https://x.com/DarrenWHaynes/status/1898743848618406377
https://x.com/DarrenWHaynes/status/1898565408384311668
https://x.com/DarrenWHaynes/status/1880859621361160635

This team is an absolute unwatchable cellar dweller without Dustin Wolf.

He'll legitimately deserve to get some Hart recognition if the Flames somehow squeak into the Playoffs.

Dustin Wolf might already legitimately be the best 5v5 goalie in the NHL, as a rookie. His overall numbers still have him comfortably top 3-5.

You can't get much better/more dominant at his position than Dustin Wolf already has, whereas the rest of the rookies in the conversation still have a decent ways to go.

If he doesn't win the Calder (and he likely won't because garbage voters), it'll be a farce.

This fanbase needs to give him more love and recognize just how far he's carried this offensively talentless team.

So Wolf for Vezina? I like it.

[Burning Beard]

The Dome should be filled with Wolf jerseys. We have a legit superstar goalie on our hands. Some seem bitter he is ruining a good tanking, but man Calgary needs to embrace this guy.

[blankall]

Some stiff competition this year.

Hutson currently has the 19th most points by a rookie defencemen ever and is on pace for the 6th best season ever. The only guys who did better all did it in the extremely high scoring 80s. Scoring isn't everything for a d-man, but Hutson is also an elite skater and is definitely capable in his own end.

Celebrini is pretty close to a ppg and leading a really bad team. We all know how amazing Wolf is.

I think you could make the case for any of Wolf, Hutson, or Celebrini.

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

The Dome should be filled with Wolf jerseys. We have a legit superstar goalie on our hands. Some seem bitter he is ruining a good tanking, but man Calgary needs to embrace this guy.

How many goalies have come through Calgary since Kipper retired? Gotta be close to a league high. Embrace Wolf.

[CroFlames]

If I was a voter, I would vote Hutson and Wolf 1 & 2.

Celebrini is having a very good season, but what Hutson and Wolf are doing is extraordinary.

[Jiggy_12]

Not quite like when Phaneuf finished 3rd behind Ovechkin & Crosby but yeah, still some stiff competition this year. Really all 3 are deserving. Michkov a distant 4th

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

If I was a voter, I would vote Hutson and Wolf 1 & 2.

Celebrini is having a very good season, but what Hutson and Wolf are doing is extraordinary.

I think you are downplaying what Celebrini is doing. The team around him is awful. An 18 year old kid, a few months post-draft, to lead a team in scoring is pretty impressive.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think you are downplaying what Celebrini is doing. The team around him is awful. An 18 year old kid, a few months post-draft, to lead a team in scoring is pretty impressive.

Well, one of the reasons he's leading the team in scoring is because the team around him is awful. Actually, that's the reason.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think you are downplaying what Celebrini is doing. The team around him is awful. An 18 year old kid, a few months post-draft, to lead a team in scoring is pretty impressive.

True statement, but the argument is that what Hutson and Wolf are doing is even more impressive.

Wolf is near the top in most goalie metrics league wide, while playing for an overall awful team. Basically unheard of until now.

Hutson is leading all rookies in scoring, as a defenseman on a mediocre team. His season is blowing Mo Seider's rookie year out of the water, which was extraordinary back then too.

Celebrini isn't even PPG and is -26. Mathews had 40 goals in his rookie year. Barzal was over PPG. It is not really that rare for a rookie forward to be very good offensively.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Some of the comments are hilarious. Who exactly is bitter that we have a star goalie?

Everyone is embracing him and excited.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think you are downplaying what Celebrini is doing. The team around him is awful. An 18 year old kid, a few months post-draft, to lead a team in scoring is pretty impressive.

Celebrini is obviously living up to first overall status, but leading a bad team in scoring is exactly what a good 1OA should do. Someone has to score. If he was a near PPG player for a contender, that would be more impressive.

The ROTY award should, simply put, go to the player who had the best rookie season. That, to me, has always meant the guy who contributed the most, in totality, to his team's success. That doesn't require the team to be a world beater, but it usually does mean that a team that has a lot of success that's directly traceable to a rookie's performance, as is the case with Wolf and Hutson, means that player had a better season than a guy who played really well and scored a lot for a team in the basement of the standings.

This isn't a "you have to make the playoffs to win the Hart" argument exactly, but team success does matter when you're the guy who's primarily responsible for that team having the success they've had.

[Soliak]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Some of the comments are hilarious. Who exactly is bitter that we have a star goalie?

Everyone is embracing him and excited.

I don't think they are mutually exclusive.

Am I stoked we have a absolute gun star goalie? Yes.

Is it a bit upsetting he has the potential to single handedly keep us in perpetual mediocrity? Yes.

Does that make me hate Wolf? No.

[InternationalVillager]

Celebrini’s team is dead last in the league. Why does it seem voters don’t care about that?

Wolf’s the only one in a playoff spot and he’s the singular reason for being so.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

The Dome should be filled with Wolf jerseys.

That's gonna be my next jersey.

Hopefully I'll be wearing it at the Dome next year.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by rohara66

So Wolf for Vezina? I like it.

Wolf is much less likely to be in the running at this point for the vezina, than the Hart.

at this point, the Vezina is wrapped up for Hellebuyck. (subject to change)

[Kipper_3434]

I think Celebrinin and Michkov finish 3rd and 4th in voting, with them splitting some votes. Hudson and Wolf will battle it out for the Calder, slight edge to Wolf. If the Flames make the playoffs Wolf will win unquestionably as media out east will have to Justify how calgary made the playoffs.

[Tbull8]

I think if Calgary makes the playoffs, it's a coin flip. Hutson just gets so much more attention out east. If Calgary misses, its 90% Hutson's

[rhino]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think you are downplaying what Celebrini is doing. The team around him is awful. An 18 year old kid, a few months post-draft, to lead a team in scoring is pretty impressive.

It’s impressive but hardly unprecedented. A rookie goalie carrying a below average roster to the playoffs is more impressive in my opinion…. Again just my opinion