Playoff Countdown

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I had to read this twice. That sounds like an insurmountable difference but under this formula you can gain 4 points each time you both play. So in four games, Oilers could in theory pull ahead.

Math was never my strongest subject, I'm confused here. When they both play, and Flame lose, Oilers win, that's 2 points? Why is it 4 points? Am I missing something?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Math was never my strongest subject, I'm confused here. When they both play, and Flame lose, Oilers win, that's 2 points? Why is it 4 points? Am I missing something?

The magic number equals points made by the Oilers + points missed by the Flames, and 2 (Oilers win) + 2 (Flames loss) = 4. It's not the same as points in the standings.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The magic number equals points made by the Oilers + points missed by the Flames, and 2 (Oilers win) + 2 (Flames loss) = 4. It's not the same as points in the standings.

Ahh...I see. Thank you.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I had to read this twice. That sounds like an insurmountable difference but under this formula you can gain 4 points each time you both play. So in four games, Oilers could in theory pull ahead.

No of course I don't think it will happen. But I am a long time Jays fan and Jays had this exact same big a lead (3.5 games) with only 7 games left and didn't even make it to a tiebreaker. Of course there were no three point games and they had head to head matchups with the Tigers.

Still just need to keep winning and celebrate when it's done, not before.

That's why I posted this.

It appears, at first glance, that the Oilers could pass us in as little as 4 games. But when you think about the actual number (28) you realize how difficult the task actually is.

Let's say the Oilers win their next 4 and the Flames lose their next 4. That would mean that the Oilers have now won 10 in a row, and the Flames have won 5 in their last 12 (or something around there). The Oil would then be ahead, but streaks don't continue forever. After 10 straight wins, the Oil would be due for some losses, and the Flames, conversely, would be due for some wins.

The 28 number shows just how many games have to go the Oilers way for them to win the division. It's not just 'they win 4 and we lose 4', it's 'they win 4 and we lose 4, and on top of that, they still need more points in their remaining 6 than the Flames get in their remaining 7'. Mathematically possible? Of course. Realistically? Not so much.

[Enoch Root]

As of April 9th


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 6
EDM: 6
DAL: 5
LAK: 4
------------
VGS: 3
VAN: 0.5
WPG: 0
SJS: 0


Magic number for clinching the playoffs is now 3


DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 6
LAK: 4
VGS: 3
VAN: 0.5
SJS: 0
ANA: 0
SEA: 0


CGY's division number drops to 12
EDM is 27
First one to zero wins the division

[Robbob]

I know the magic number calculation figures the number to have 1 more point then the team so tie breakers aren't needed. In the Flames case, the tie breaker is their advantage.

I was looking at the standing and since the Flames have such a high RW, we are getting to that point where a couple teams the Flames can shave off .5 because the Flames have already clinched the first tie breaker (RW).

WPG if they won all their remaining game, even in regulation, they get to 97 points and tie the flames. Unfortunately for them, they finish the season with 36 RW, still 3 RW less then Calgary. So they can not pass the Flames and are eliminated.

I think this is another feather in the Flames cap, as they hold a 6 RW advantage on the closest pacific team (Oilers).

[Tsawwassen]

Following the April 9 games, the magic number is now 4 for the Flames being unable to catch the Avs for 1st place in the conference.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I know the magic number calculation figures the number to have 1 more point then the team so tie breakers aren't needed. In the Flames case, the tie breaker is their advantage.

I was looking at the standing and since the Flames have such a high RW, we are getting to that point where a couple teams the Flames can shave off .5 because the Flames have already clinched the first tie breaker (RW).

WPG if they won all their remaining game, even in regulation, they get to 97 points and tie the flames. Unfortunately for them, they finish the season with 36 RW, still 3 RW less then Calgary. So they can not pass the Flames and are eliminated.

I think this is another feather in the Flames cap, as they hold a 6 RW advantage on the closest pacific team (Oilers).

You are correct about WPG, I updated their positioning

[Enoch Root]

As of April 12th


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 4.5
EDM: 4
DAL: 4
LAK: 2
------------
VGS: 1.5
VAN: 0
They need to eliminate one more team


DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 4
LAK: 2
VGS: 1.5
VAN: 0
SJS: 0
ANA: 0
SEA: 0
Four down, three to go!


CGY's division number drops to 8
EDM's remains at 27
First one to zero wins the division

[FanIn80]

Flames improve to 2-12-2 in games in which they trail after two periods.

I saw this stat in the Notes section at the bottom of this article:

https://www.sootoday.com/national-sp...en-5-3-5260561

Is that true? Have we really only won 2 out of 16 when trailing going into the third?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I saw this stat in the Notes section at the bottom of this article:

https://www.sootoday.com/national-sp...en-5-3-5260561

Is that true? Have we really only won 2 out of 16 when trailing going into the third?

It's probably not that unusual. Generally speaking, if you are losing after 2 the other team is just better on the night.

[Robbob]

It also shows that the other 60 odd games the Flames are leading or tied going into the 3rd.

[GioforPM]

From a slightly dated article:

So far this season, 392 games have entered the third with one team winning; 79.85 percent of them ended with the team that led getting two points out of it. They earned one point at 13.27 percent of the time, with an overtime or shootout loss.

In other words, teams with leads entering the third pull at least a point out of the game 93.11 percent of the time.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nh...192353293.html

Also, IIRC the Flames had no wins after trailing for the longest time, so they are improving.

[FanIn80]

Fair. I guess I was just shocked a bit that last night was only the second time we've had a 3rd period come from behind win all year. My memory must be skewed by games where we got behind in the 3rd and won, as opposed to being behind going into the 3rd?

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

As of April 12th


PLAYOFFS
NAS: 4.5
EDM: 4
DAL: 4
LAK: 2
------------
VGS: 1.5
VAN: 0
They need to eliminate one more team


DIVISION TITLE
EDM: 4
LAK: 2
VGS: 1.5
VAN: 0
SJS: 0
ANA: 0
SEA: 0
Four down, three to go!


CGY's division number drops to 8
EDM's remains at 27
First one to zero wins the division

1 point of order.

LA is actually at 1.5 games because they can't catchup in ROW so the tiebreaker is settled.

And VGS is technically still at 1.5 but they would need to win all there games without a shootout and have Calgary go 0-7-2, Calgary only needs 2pts and 1 ROW to clinch the tiebreaker.

[Enoch Root]

Scenarios for Flames to clinch today...

Ignoring VGS, if the Flames win in regulation, they clinch today, no matter what.


But since VGS plays first, here are the scenarios, based on their game...

1) If VGS wins in regulation, CGY needs to win in regulation.

2) If VGS wins in OT/SO, CGY needs 2 pts to clinch.

3) If VGS gets an OTL, CGY needs 1 pt to clinch.

4) If VGS loses in regulation, Flames are in.

[OminousFlames]

What is repulsive is that there are actually Flames "fans" that want the Oilers to win tonight, so the Flames can clinch a playoff spot. Come on people! Do you actually think the team that has won 5 of the last 6 games will go completely pointless for the rest of the season!?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Scenarios for Flames to clinch today...

Ignoring VGS, if the Flames win in regulation, they clinch today, no matter what.


But since VGS plays first, here are the scenarios, based on their game...

1) If VGS wins in regulation, CGY needs to win in regulation.

2) If VGS wins in OT/SO, CGY needs 2 pts to clinch.

3) If VGS gets an OTL, CGY needs 1 pt to clinch.

4) If VGS loses in regulation, Flames are in.

That was the VGS scenario, the LAK scenario is even simpler...

1) CGY gets 1 pt, they clinch

2) LAK only get 1 pt, CGY clinches


So the only way the Flames don't clinch today is if:

1) Flames lose in regulation, AND
2) LAK win, AND
3) VGS doesn't lose in regulation

[bcneil]

We are in

[Robbob]

Now the only magic number thar matters is the one for the division