Playoff Countdown

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Kind of sucks that in a weak Pacific, it's more enviable to be 2nd in the div rather than 1st.

I think it's dangerous to assume this team is more favourable than that team. You never know in the playoffs

[Burning Beard]

Remember in 18/19 when Colorado was the favourable opponent? We swept them in the regular season that year.

[Enoch Root]

For anyone that has to listen to Oiler fans harping about them catching the Flames, here it is numbers so you can shut them up...

For the Flames to clinch the division, their number is 15 - any combination of points earned by the Flames, or missed out on by the Oilers, that totals 15, and the Flames have clinched (a Flames win is 2 points, an Oiler loss is also 2 points).

For the Oilers to clinch, their number is 28. They need a combination of points they get, plus points the Flames miss, totaling 28 (in other words, ain't happening)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Remember in 18/19 when Colorado was the favourable opponent? We swept them in the regular season that year.

Exactly.

Tampa was thrilled to get CBJ that year as well.

[gvitaly]

Updated likely first round opponents:

Central Opponent ~ 98.3%
--------------------------
NSH - 52.9% (was 38.3%)
DAL - 26.8% (24.9%)
STL - 12.9% (20.7%)
MIN - 5.8% (8.9%)

Pacific Opponent ~ 1.7%

[Salt Water Cowboy #10]

Going by win percentage, wouldn’t we be most likely to play LA?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Salt Water Cowboy #10

Going by win percentage, wouldn’t we be most likely to play LA?

No. It's almost impossible for LA to finish in a Wildcard spot. Vegas would need to pass them and yet LA still remain above Nashville/Dallas.

[OptimalTates]

Oh, you probably forgot that the NHL changed to a true bracket now with the brackets being filled by the top 3 from each division and a wildcard spot.

With Colorado all but certain to finish ahead of the Flames, the Central division bracket will be the top 3 central teams and the last wildcard spot.

So if season ended today the central bracket would be Colorado vs Dallas, Minnesota vs St. Louis, those two winners play each other.

"Pacific" bracket would be Calgary vs Nashville, Edmonton vs LA, those two winners play each other.

[McG]

AKA crossovers. But not the kind that Snet raves about.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Salt Water Cowboy #10

Going by win percentage, wouldn’t we be most likely to play LA?

As mentioned before me the Flames have about a 99% chance to finish first in the division. This results in playing the first wildcard team. A team like LA would need to be passed by Vegas/Vancouver, but also remain above 2 of MIN, STL, NSH, DAL. That's an extremely unlikely scenario.

A far more likely scenario if 4 pacific teams make it, is that one of the teams will be playing against Colorado. The only realistic way that we're playing against a pacific team is if we lose the division and end up as the 2nd seed.

[Manhattanboy]

This exciting, no?

[dino7c]

Oilers are also fresh out of bottom feeders and teams missing half their lineup...they aren't passing the flames

[Manhattanboy]

Ya Oilers are not catching us.

Can we discuss the possibility of the Oilers missing? What needs to happen?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For anyone that has to listen to Oiler fans harping about them catching the Flames, here it is numbers so you can shut them up...

For the Flames to clinch the division, their number is 15 - any combination of points earned by the Flames, or missed out on by the Oilers, that totals 15, and the Flames have clinched (a Flames win is 2 points, an Oiler loss is also 2 points).

For the Oilers to clinch, their number is 28. They need a combination of points they get, plus points the Flames miss, totaling 28 (in other words, ain't happening)

I had to read this twice. That sounds like an insurmountable difference but under this formula you can gain 4 points each time you both play. So in four games, Oilers could in theory pull ahead.

No of course I don't think it will happen. But I am a long time Jays fan and Jays had this exact same big a lead (3.5 games) with only 7 games left and didn't even make it to a tiebreaker. Of course there were no three point games and they had head to head matchups with the Tigers.

Still just need to keep winning and celebrate when it's done, not before.

[PuckSlap]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Ya Oilers are not catching us.

Can we discuss the possibility of the Oilers missing? What needs to happen?

Mcdavid misses 6 games.


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[Stanley]

What are the odds for Oilers finishing as 1st wildcard spot?

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Stanley

What are the odds for Oilers finishing as 1st wildcard spot?

Pacific opponent - 1.7%
So probably less than that even.
You’d need the central wild card teams to stop winning, Vegas to pass them and the Oilers, Kings to pass the Oilers, and the Oilers to just somehow have more points than Nashville and Dallas.

[Stanley]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Pacific opponent - 1.7%
So probably less than that even.
You’d need the central wild card teams to stop winning, Vegas to pass them and the Oilers, Kings to pass the Oilers, and the Oilers to just somehow have more points than Nashville and Dallas.

Wow...ok ya probably not happening

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For anyone that has to listen to Oiler fans harping about them catching the Flames, here it is numbers so you can shut them up...

For the Flames to clinch the division, their number is 15 - any combination of points earned by the Flames, or missed out on by the Oilers, that totals 15, and the Flames have clinched (a Flames win is 2 points, an Oiler loss is also 2 points).

For the Oilers to clinch, their number is 28. They need a combination of points they get, plus points the Flames miss, totaling 28 (in other words, ain't happening)

It took Oilers winning 6 in a row against garbage teams to get to within 6 points of the Flames, and they have one less game left. Even if they win their final 10 games (and thus going 16-0), Flames would have to be 6-5 for Oilers to pass them. I mean, I guess that could happen, but how probable is it?

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Stanley

What are the odds for Oilers finishing as 1st wildcard spot?

0.06% there’s about a 65 chance in 100,000 that they play the Flames in the first round.