Upcoming Mangiapane contract discussion

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Just wanted to return to this for a sec. I've done nothing but provide quantitative evidence in this thread, showing categories where Mangiapane has ranked among the league's best players over the last two seasons. These are statistics. These numbers are real. You can debate the merits of them if you want to, but they exist.

And this is the weakness of statistics. If the data is not consistent or normalized the stats generated are flawed and not really reflective of the complexity in the system. The statistics can say one thing (Ty Conklin was a better goaltender than Martin Brodeur) but the picture reality paints is much different. I mean, mentioning Mangiapane in the same breath of players who score two to three times the points he does makes the argument and use of those statistics look ridiculous. Relying solely on 5-on-5 stats eliminates a huge part of the game where the best players on each team are out on the ice and big part of offense is generated. A PPG still counts as much as a 5-on-5 goal, as do assists, so discounting those points is a little disingenuous.

[TheScorpion]

Ok but the argument I'm giving is that Mangiapane SHOULD be on the PP. He hasn't been, for no good reason.

It makes sense to evaluate and compare players on the most level playing field possible. At even strength, Mangiapane laps much of his competition. That, to me, suggests he very much should and can do the same on the PP.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Ok but the argument I'm giving is that Mangiapane SHOULD be on the PP. He hasn't been, for no good reason.

It makes sense to evaluate and compare players on the most level playing field possible. At even strength, Mangiapane laps much of his competition. That, to me, suggests he very much should and can do the same on the PP.

OK...and i think you will get your wish sooner rather than later but how does that equate to giving a 30 pt guy now...6 million dollars a year moving forward?

[timbit]

Originally Posted by transplant99

OK...and i think you will get your wish sooner rather than later but how does that equate to giving a 30 pt guy now...6 million dollars a year moving forward?

It absolutely doesn’t equate, IMO.

[TheScorpion]

35 goals in his last 124 games is difficult to ignore. He’s 75th in the NHL in goals since the start of last season, tied with Konecny, Hertl, Palmieri, Coleman, Dvorak, and Hayes. Ahead of Kopitar, Wilson, Kessel, Malkin, Forsberg, Olofsson, Monahan, Kuznetsov, and Keller. Just behind both Tkachuks, RNH, Giroux, Wheeler, Gaudreau, O'Reilly, Marner, and Barzal.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by transplant99

OK...and i think you will get your wish sooner rather than later but how does that equate to giving a 30 pt guy now...6 million dollars a year moving forward?

Because they think he will be the equivalent of Brock Nelson, Jake Guentzel or Brandon Saad?

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

maybe I'm just actually a homer for good players. I actually think the Flames are pretty horribly set up for the future. but Mangiapane is a beacon of light on the team.

anyway it's really hard to judge Mangiapane's points because he hasn't been given the same high-leverage opportunities as stars around the league but his early-career production is very similar to that of Brad Marchand, who was a similarly undervalued and under-deployed player (typically averaging less than 17 minutes a night and getting very little PP time) until around the 2015–16 season.

This season, Mangiapane was the 14th-most valuable offensive player at even strength in the entire NHL (according to Evolving-Hockey's expected goals above replacement model). The folks ahead of him?

Matthews, Nurse, McDavid, DeBrincat, Chychrun, Draisaitl, Rantanen, Barkov, Burakovsky, Marchand, Robertson, Orlov, and Huberdeau

You can dismiss a guy's reputation but it doesn't really get you anywhere. These were the top guys in the league at driving offensive play this year. When they were on the ice, their teams dominated — and they were the reason. And they're expected to continue at that level.

there is literally no spin here. it's quantifiable evidence. he's one of the top producers and play-drivers in the league at 5v5. if he gets PP time, it's a very reasonable assumption that his raw points output will increase. when he was on the ice this year, the Flames outscored their opponents 31-24.

"pedigree" really shouldn't matter, and if we're basing it off history — he was one of the better offensive play-drivers in the league last year, too.

Bread rocks, first of all. And I hate the way we grind our top players on this website. So caveat declared...

I just think he continues to struggle with balance maybe strength on his skates. He falls down a lot still.

And he’s not a great passer IMO. He puts pucks too far ahead, in skates etc.

If he gets these things improved on I do think he’s a full time top line winger.

Right now no way he’s a 6x6. 7x5 is in the vicinity of where I think he lands.

No stats, just my observations from watching him come up.

He’s awesome. I love him on our team. It’d be awesome if he went long term and turned his contract into the bargain of the league.

[Freddy]

I feel like Treliving has already played hardball with Mangiapane on previous contract negotiations and the player has consistently been drama free while upstaging better paid guys with every opportunity given to him. I sincerely hope the Flames management give him a longer term contract that he’s happy with and he plays out his prime with organization that has developed him. If he feels like he’s getting nickel & dimed on this next negotiation he will undoubtedly go on to have a flourishing career somewhere else and us fans will pout about yet another star ‘that got away’ on us.

[SuperMatt18]

All these he’s a 30 point guy posts are disingenuous too. It’s not his fault we’ve had two shortened seasons due to covid.

Pro-rated he was on a 38 point pace (20 goals) two seasons ago, and on a 48 point pace (26 goals) this season. 50 points while playing little to no PP time is pretty good, as indicated by his 5v5 production rankings.

Flames would be smart to try to “Buy low” since his counting numbers are lower than they otherwise might be due to his low PP usage and abnormally low 2nd assist numbers (it’s actually really weird).

If you could lock him up long term for anything around $5M that’s probably going to be a bargain for the life of the contract.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

35 goals in his last 124 games is difficult to ignore. He’s 75th in the NHL in goals since the start of last season, tied with Konecny, Hertl, Palmieri, Coleman, Dvorak, and Hayes. Ahead of Kopitar, Wilson, Kessel, Malkin, Forsberg, Olofsson, Monahan, Kuznetsov, and Keller. Just behind both Tkachuks, RNH, Giroux, Wheeler, Gaudreau, O'Reilly, Marner, and Barzal.

It doesn’t really matter though because results are the results and I can’t think of a forward who is over 25, never scored 20 goals in a season, or cracked 35pts being given the term and $ of a player who scores significantly more and is a legit first liner.

I think Mangiapane could get there but barring a point per game season next year I just don’t see how he can command 6x6?

I think trying to sign Mangiapane this summer would be a wise move and paying him between 4-5M on a long term deal makes sense for both sides (if Mangiapane’s goal is to get security ASAP otherwise he should bet on himself and see how next season goes)

[dammage79]

Ugh. Mangiapane is growing on me but I can't help but think the new contract is going to be a mega regretful overpay.

Can't shake it. Might be one of the best 6th round picks the Flames ever made though.

[MrMike]

4 x 4.125

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Ugh. Mangiapane is growing on me but I can't help but think the new contract is going to be a mega regretful overpay.

Can't shake it. Might be one of the best 6th round picks the Flames ever made though.

If his name was Andrei Mangiapanov he’d be worth $7M x 7.

(Sorry can’t help but poke fun at the Russian forward obsession)

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

If his name was Andrei Mangiapanov he’d be worth $7M x 7.

(Sorry can’t help but poke fun at the Russian forward obsession)

Yeah but thats 7 x 7m rubles. Still sick savings!

And hey, I'm not so big on the top Russians this year. Some sleepers late on the draft sure, but nothing for the 1st rounder!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

All these he’s a 30 point guy posts are disingenuous too. It’s not his fault we’ve had two shortened seasons due to covid.

Pro-rated he was on a 38 point pace (20 goals) two seasons ago, and on a 48 point pace (26 goals) this season. 50 points while playing little to no PP time is pretty good, as indicated by his 5v5 production rankings.

Flames would be smart to try to “Buy low” since his counting numbers are lower than they otherwise might be due to his low PP usage and abnormally low 2nd assist numbers (it’s actually really weird).

If you could lock him up long term for anything around $5M that’s probably going to be a bargain for the life of the contract.

Well yes...his career average would be 35 pts per 82 games...not 30.

You got me there.

I agree with signing the guy long term and never said anything different...again if its around the Rasmus deal that would be optimal.

5M? sure. as long as its at least 5 years if not 6.

Again, the cheaper he can be had the better for the team.

I worry about the team over and above any single player.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Ugh. Mangiapane is growing on me but I can't help but think the new contract is going to be a mega regretful overpay.

Can't shake it. Might be one of the best 6th round picks the Flames ever made though.

Brett Hull was pretty good.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Well yes...his career average would be 35 pts per 82 games...not 30.

You got me there.

Justify it however you want but the posts were intentionally being misleading to down play Mangiapane as a player.

Generally when looking at players next contract you look at the most recent season, not a career average going back to his part time rookie season.

Even if you want to average his last two seasons that’s 23 goals and 43 points per 82 average. Which is pretty good considering he doesn’t get first unit PP time. Plus he did that well playing tough minutes against other teams too lines next to Backlund for a lot of the time.

Agree that 6 x $6M is probably a tad high but if it was even 6 x $5.5M I wouldn’t blink.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

4 years @ $4.75 M. Just a guess, but that seems like a good deal for Mangiapane and the Flames. Eats a few years of UFA but isn't very long-term. He's a solid middle six player, but lacks size and defensive acumen.

I've watched him a lot, and I really like his game, but he's not a player you build around, so you have to sign him to a value contract in the case you may have to deal him in a trade at some point. Failing to recognize real core players from supplementary players is the downfall of many GMs.

[timun]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He's not as flashy as those guys for sure but he's very much a very effective 200 foot player that drives play. And tends to do so no matter what line he has played on, or who he plays with.

Maybe you don't give him 6 x $6 right now, but Flames would smart to try to lock him up long term at a lower cap hit if they could.

And really the numbers are the numbers. You can argue it all you want but over the last two seasons he is in the top 30 in the NHL at producing primary points (goals + primary assists) at 5v5. That's not debatable, that's just a fact.

These are two different players, looking at both of them the summer they turned 25 years old.

Player A:

AHL - 113 GP
Goals-31, Points - 91, PPG - 0.81

NHL-218 GP
All Situations: Goals- 67, Points - 133, PPG- 0.61
5V5: Goals: 41, Points - 96, PPG - 0.44

Advanced 5V5:
-Goals per 60: 0.97
-Points per 60: 2.28
-Primary points per 60: 1.68
-Corsi For: 56.1%
-xGF%: 55.8%

Player B:

AHL - 120 GP:
Goals-50. Points - 109, PPG - 0.90

NHL- 178 GP
All Situations: Goals - 43. Points - 77, PPG - 0.43 PPG
5V5: Goals - 38, Points-68, PPG - 0.38 PPG

Advanced 5v5:
-Goals per 60: 1.13
-Points per 60: 2.02
-Primary Points per 60: 1.87
-Corsi For: 54.1%
-xGF%: 56.4%

Player A is Brad Marchand
Player B is Andrew Mangiapane

Nah nah nah nah, there's some **ckery going on here. You're also selling Marchand short by presenting "all-situations" points vs 5on5, which totally glosses over the fact that Marchand was about as prolific on the penalty kill as he was on the power play.

Marchand
All Situations: Goals - 67, Points - 133, PPG- 0.61
5V5: Goals - 41 48, Points - 96 109, PPG - 0.44 0.50
SH: Goals - 8, Points - 11
PP: Goals - 11, Points - 13

Mangiapane
All Situations: Goals - 43. Points - 77, PPG - 0.43 PPG
5V5: Goals - 38 40, Points-68 70, PPG - 0.38 PPG 0.39
SH: Goals - 1, Points - 1
PP: Goals - 2, Points - 6

The rest of your "advanced" 5v5 stats are thus extremely suspect.

Marchand was slightly ahead of Mangiapane at this point of their careers,

No, Marchand was waaaaaaay ahead. Two 20+ goal seasons and other than his first taste of the NHL in '09-'10 he never had less than 36 points in a season (the lockout-abbreviated '12-'13 season, 45 GP). Mangiapane's career highs are 18 goals, 32 points; Marchand's were 28 goals, 55 points.

Plus Marchand had 34 points in 54 playoff games, including 19 points in 25 games and a Stanley Cup in 2011.

And even after all that, and another 25-goal, 53-point season in 2013-14, Brad Marchand's next deal was 4yrs @ $4.5M.

Throwing 6x$6M at Andrew Mangiapane is incredibly foolish.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by timun

Nah nah nah nah, there's some **ckery going on here. You're also selling Marchand short by presenting "all-situations" points vs 5on5, which totally glosses over the fact that Marchand was about as prolific on the penalty kill as he was on the power play.

Marchand
All Situations: Goals - 67, Points - 133, PPG- 0.61
5V5: Goals - 41 48, Points - 96 109, PPG - 0.44 0.50
SH: Goals - 8, Points - 11
PP: Goals - 11, Points - 13

Mangiapane
All Situations: Goals - 43. Points - 77, PPG - 0.43 PPG
5V5: Goals - 38 40, Points-68 70, PPG - 0.38 PPG 0.39
SH: Goals - 1, Points - 1
PP: Goals - 2, Points - 6

The rest of your "advanced" 5v5 stats are thus extremely suspect.

No trickery here at all. His all situation production was higher, I acknowledged that. That includes PP, SH, and would include 4x4 and 3x3 as well. I never said that his all situation production was solely due to PP time.

However at 5v5 the production both at a per game, and a per 60 minutes of ice time level is pretty close.

And you can call the advanced stats suspect all you want but 5v5 production, primary points, and looking at points per 60 has proven to be the best indicator of future production over the long haul. Nothing suspect about it at all.

Honestly the in-season stats mean nothing and the PPG numbers are way more valuable as it adjusts for Marchands lockout shortened season and Mangiapanes two Covid shortened seasons.

And yes in terms of overall impact Marchand was more proven at that point. His .61 PPG in all situations totally eclipses, Mangiapanes .43 PPG. But it’s tough to say that Mangiapane couldn’t have that impact, he just hasn’t been given the special teams opportunity until late in this season.

All that we know is that at 5v5 Mangiapane has been a great play driver, with strong production that puts him in the “first liner” range of production at 5v5. And that at 5v5 his production is very similar to Marchand at the same age.

Doesn’t necessarily mean his rate if production would stay the same with more ice time leading to more total points, and doesn’t mean that he should have been on the first unit PP or PK up to this point. (honestly I don’t think up to Monahans decline this season that you’re removing any of the big 4 forwards off that top unit).

But it means that their might be untapped potential there because in the minutes he has been given up to this point in his career, he’s produced really well and been a strong contributor to this team.

In 13-14 I would have never guess that Marchand would become the player he has become. And there is no guarantee that Mangiapane takes those same steps that Marchand does, Marchand is the more the exception than the rule.

All I’m saying is that at this point of their careers there are a lot of similarities between the two players. I don’t think that’s that controversial of a statement at all.

And based on how the salary cap has grown $4.5M in 13-14 is the equivalent of $5.7M in an $81.5M cap. So I stand by saying that anything around $5M over 5+ years for Mangiapane would be a great piece of business.