What would a Gaudreau bridge deal look like?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

So you think $5.86M x 7 years or $6.13M x 8 years is reasonable?

This is what I'm talking about, the kid is underrated around here . . . and people think I'm out to lunch

Your math needs some work.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Your math needs some work.

How so? He has 5 years of RFA, correct?

7 year deal would be (5*5 + 8*2)/7 = 41/7 = 5.86
8 year deal would be (5*5 + 8*3)/8 = 49/8 = 6.13

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

How so? He has 5 years of RFA, correct?

7 year deal would be (5*5 + 8*2)/7 = 41/7 = 5.86
8 year deal would be (5*5 + 8*3)/8 = 49/8 = 6.13

If it's 5, my bad. I thought it was 4. Carry on.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

So you think $5.86M x 7 years or $6.13M x 8 years is reasonable?

This is what I'm talking about, the kid is underrated around here . . . and people think I'm out to lunch

I think you're underrated. You sir are top notch at your craft.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

If it's 5, my bad. I thought it was 4. Carry on.

No worries, I've literally mixed it up like a dozen times in my head. Had to google it to be sure after someone called me on my math lol.

[Since1984]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

How so? He has 5 years of RFA, correct?

7 year deal would be (5*5 + 8*2)/7 = 41/7 = 5.86
8 year deal would be (5*5 + 8*3)/8 = 49/8 = 6.13

Bump up the 5*5 to 6*5 and you have 6.75 aav which is perfect. Same as Gio and Gio has been a Norris contender, All Star and Captain of our Calgary Flames.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Really? Look up a few posts . . .

Yes. If he holds out for 1 million more than he is 'worth'.
I thought we were talking about him being paid what he is worth?

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Since1984

Bump up the 5*5 to 6*5 and you have 6.75 aav which is perfect. Same as Gio and Gio has been a Norris contender, All Star and Captain of our Calgary Flames.

That would literally be ~15% less than his nearest comp if you adjust for inflation. And Gio's contract takes him to 40 . . . not sure how thats the bar . . .

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Yes. If he holds out for 1 million more than he is 'worth'.
I thought we were talking about him being paid what he is worth?

That was never made clear as part of the post. Using the most objective method possible (market comps), and adjusting for inflation, Gaudreau's worth is ~7.8M on an 8 year deal, possibly higher because he has performed better than his closest comp. So unless he's holding out for 8.8M, its not 1M over his value.

[PepsiFree]

Serious comment here away from the whole troll thing going on:

It's pretty widely accepted that Tarasenko is a comparable, but (at 8 years) they bought 4 years of UFA with Tarasenko. With Johnny at 7, they'd only be buying 2, correct?

That suggests to me that if the deal is 7 years, we should be looking at closer to 7 million (or below), but 7.5 would make sense at 8 (since we'd be buying one less year that the Blues bought with Tarasenko. Plus gives Johnny a boost for "inflation" or whatever.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Serious comment here away from the whole troll thing going on:

It's pretty widely accepted that Tarasenko is a comparable, but (at 7 years) they bought 3 years of UFA with Tarasenko. With Johnny at 7, they'd only be buying 2, correct?

That suggests to me that if the deal is 7 years, we should be looking at closer to 7 million (or below), but 7.5 would make sense at 8 (since we'd be buying the same amount of years that the Blues bought with Tarasenko.

That's absolutely true, and Tarasenko's deal was 8 years. So he got 4 RFA + 4 UFA vs 5 RFA + 3 UFA for Johnny. That to me is the biggest thing in Calgary's corner.

Here is how I look at it:

Inflation at 5.5%: +410k
One less year of UFA: -400k
Adjustment for superior performance to date in career: Anywhere from 250k - 500k

Nets out to just under 7.75M to 8M on an 8 year deal.

[Ruttiger]

I'd love to see a bridge deal.

[PepsiFree]

The salary cap only rose 2.2% so any inflation above that seems unfounded.

If anything, the one less year of UFA negates the performance increase and inflation.

7.5 should be the top end at 8, based on the numbers.

A 4 year bridge deal would likely be fantastic at about 4-5 million.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

The salary cap only rose 2.2% so any inflation above that seems unfounded.

I based it off the CAGR since the cap became a thing, not just one year, because the term of the entire deal would be subject to inflation (meaning all 8 years). You could make an argument that expectations have shifted downward, so the assumed inflation may be closer to 3-4%, but I don't see how we'd see inflation stay below the risk free rate.

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

If anything, the one less year of UFA negates the performance increase and inflation.

Consider that Gaudreau not only outscored Tarasenko in their contract years, but over the course of their careers (before signing their extensions). Gaudreau has produced points at an 19% higher rate than Tarasenko.

And career production matters - look at Monahan and Scheifele - Scheifele signed for 250k less despite signing an 8 year deal vs 7, with 4 UFA years vs 3. Had Monahan gone the full 8, he'd probably be around 6.75M cap, so thats a full 600k delta, even though Scheifele was more productive this past year and Monahan's career scoring is only 5% higher rate than Scheifele.

So without inflation, and making the conservative assumption that Monahan:Scheifele ~ Gaudreau:Tarasenko, Gaudreau's AAV could easily start at 250k over Tarasenko's - 7.75M

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

7.5 should be the top end at 8, based on the numbers.

A 4 year bridge deal would likely be fantastic at about 4-5 million.

Fantastic? Yes.
Realistic? No.

[PepsiFree]

I think it's realistic.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I think it's realistic.

Maybe you are right, but wouldn't you think that would be grossly undervaluing him? I mean RFA years at 4M would mean he'd have to get paid 10M in UFA years to even reach 6.25M on an 8 year deal, or 12M a year to reach 7M AAV. I know RFA's sign cheaper, but are UFA years really worth 250-300% more? That's crazy.

[PepsiFree]

I dunno, you thought Monahan should sign for 6 or less on a 7 year deal despite outscoring MacKinnon, Barkov, and Schiefle... so I'm going with JG 7.5/8 or 4.5/4.

Comparables and inflation and UFA years oh my.

[Cole436]

It would be a mistake. Just like the Subban deal was.

[MrMastodonFarm]

It's times like this you'd want a little self-awareness, realize your view is skewed to such a degree that you're dragging down multiple threads, re-hashing the same debate hundreds of times in this thread and making any debate you're involved in utterly unenjoyable. Yes, one might love Johnny Hockey, but it doesn't mean you need to be a complete and utter fool about it.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I dunno, you thought Monahan should sign for 6 or less on a 7 year deal despite outscoring MacKinnon, Barkov, and Schiefle... so I'm going with JG 7.5/8 or 4.5/4.

Comparables and inflation and UFA years oh my.

You're free to form your own opinion, choosing to use and ignore whatever facts you like. For the record, I was hoping for Monahan to come in around 6.2.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

You're free to form your own opinion, choosing to use and ignore whatever facts you like. For the record, I was hoping for Monahan to come in around 6.2.

Nope

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

6.4M seems like a lot, was hoping for 6 or less. I'm nervous that he'll a struggle if taken from Gaudreau, as we've seen in the past. I would have thought Treliving could have used that fact as leverage. . .