Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 6

[Enoch Root]

Andersson again for me. I view the 3 defensemen as a group and the order is pretty irrelevant - they're all great prospects.

After these guys are out of the way, it's another interesting group, this time all forwards:

Shinkaruk, Mangiapane, Poirier and Pribyl

All different, and all exciting prospects for different reasons.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

There's some serious overvaluing of Shinkaruk on CP.

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

How do you figure? I know you voted Mangiapane, and I like him a lot too, but is he much different? A highly offensive player who is undersized and did well in junior? The only difference in my mind is that Shinkaruk is farther along in the system and has had a sample size at the NHL level where he looked like he belonged. Until eat bread gets the same chance, you have nothing to really compare, and it's possible that the NHL is too big for Mangiapane.

I think seeing them both at training camp will probably sort a lot of that out.

Yep, it's the classic internet mark of death for a prospect: actually playing games in the NHL. It's been that way for years, it must be psychological thing where fans have this vision of being destined for star status when they read and hear about guys tearing up lesser leagues.

But the second they can actually watch them at the very highest level of hockey in the world, where 99% of players don't light it up right away, it takes away some of the allure and the player will almost always see a drop in fans ratings.

That and Shinkaruk came from the Canucks and we heard about his "issues", which of course are always blown up when it's a rival prospect, so I think some are subconsciously viewing him as a project more than a prospect.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by New Era

Poirier for me. Shinkaruk is a close second here. Andersson should be falling, and for good reason. Part of being a pro is staying in shape and maintaining your fitness level. Huge red flag for guys who don't take that seriously. May not hurt them now against junior kids, but against men who do take this stuff seriously you are at an immediate disadvantage.

Don't understand the Mangiapane love at all. Reminds me a lot of Marty Murray. Not impressed by big time junior scorers unless they can do the same in the professional ranks. Have to see if this kid's skill set can translate to the pro ranks. Not sure how it does. Have to see some success against men before getting excited about another under sized player. There's a reason he was passed over in one draft and then was selected 166th in the next. Can't get excited over a player who statistically has a 15% chance of playing more than 50 NHL games.

Does Poirier have more than a 15% chance? Did Johnny?

No doubt the chances for Mangiapane are low, but they are low for all of the guys outside of the first round or so. I don't have Mangiapane particularly high, but I can see why guys would choose him.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by _Q_

With Wotherspoon it's probably because he has been "NHL ready" for a good 3 years now, but has never managed to crack the line up.

With Shinkaruk, who knows. The kid is a former first rounder that looked great playing on the top line last season. I think he is easily one of our top 5 prospects. It might be because he's new to the system and therefore nobody has much emotional attachment to him.

I thought he showed signs of being a very good top 6 player in limited time as a Flame last season. I honestly think he's going to surprise a lot of people and end up being a mainstay as top 6 Flames forward, which if true should make him a top 5 prospect, imo.


We'll see, I guess.

[Flash Walken]

Absolutely bizarre to see Jankowski voted ahead of guys like Shinkaruk, Gillies, Hickey etc.

Shinkaruk and Jankowski are the same age, and one of them can score at an NHL level while the other can't get a cup of coffee. If Jankowski turns into Colborne it would be a miracle at this point. It shouldn't be a stretch to think Andersson and Magiapane could be ahead of him as well.

I suppose I missed the discussion during the vote thread but the disparate criteria for how to rank their value removes a lot of the meaning behind these polls. I think Bingo is on the right track by judging it on trade value.

I don't know if Vancouver would've dealt Shinkaruk for Jankowski, Granlund certainly had more value at the time than Jankowski did. I think if Jankowski was a Canuck prospect and Shinkaruk a Flame, CP wouldn't want to do that trade either.

My apologies for the derailment but it's something that I think throws off the results of the entire exercise, and I like these polls.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Absolutely bizarre to see Jankowski voted ahead of guys like Shinkaruk, Gillies, Hickey etc.

Shinkaruk and Jankowski are the same age, and one of them can score at an NHL level while the other can't get a cup of coffee. If Jankowski turns into Colborne it would be a miracle at this point. It shouldn't be a stretch to think Andersson and Magiapane could be ahead of him as well.

I suppose I missed the discussion during the vote thread but the disparate criteria for how to rank their value removes a lot of the meaning behind these polls. I think Bingo is on the right track by judging it on trade value.

I don't know if Vancouver would've dealt Shinkaruk for Jankowski, Granlund certainly had more value at the time than Jankowski did. I think if Jankowski was a Canuck prospect and Shinkaruk a Flame, CP wouldn't want to do that trade either.

My apologies for the derailment but it's something that I think throws off the results of the entire exercise, and I like these polls.

This is more a matter of circumstance. Jankowski hasn't had the contract to even have a chance to play an NHL game, but his time in the AHL appeared to go well. You'd have to wait until this year to run that comparison.

[Erick Estrada]

Poirier and Shinkaruk are kind of linked due to the Flames passing on one to take the other but I think the Flames got it right as I feel Poirier has a better chance to nail down an NHL career.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Absolutely bizarre to see Jankowski voted ahead of guys like Shinkaruk, Gillies, Hickey etc.

I don't think so at all. I feel of the players you listed Jankowski is the best bet right now to have an NHL career. He's going to at worst be a full time bottom 6 center which is still a roster spot and contributor. Shinkaruk is going to have to score at a high rate that overcomes his size deficiency to be a full time NHL player, Gillies has to show he's one of the best goaltenders in the AHL before I would be comfortable believing he has surefire NHL potential and Hickey at this point is a hope and a prayer as he still has a few years before we know where he's at.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

I remember when everyone was saying the same about Gaudreau. Except he didn't spend a second in the AHL.

Completely different situations. Gaudreau was playing against men and racking up points in a way not seen since Kariya. Johnny Hockey was the best player in his league. Mangiapane wasn't even the best player on his team. I appreciate the enthusiasm but there should be some pumping of the breaks here, big time. The odds are pretty stacked against him, especially with Gaudreau on the team. The Flames have intentionally gone out to grab size. They want to get bigger, not smaller. Mangiapane will have to become the second coming of Marchand to have a hope. Only after proving he can do that in the AHL will he get a sniff. Again, things are stacked against the kid. Hope he proves himself quickly.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by New Era

Completely different situations. Gaudreau was playing against men and racking up points in a way not seen since Kariya. Johnny Hockey was the best player in his league. Mangiapane wasn't even the best player on his team. I appreciate the enthusiasm but there should be some pumping of the breaks here, big time. The odds are pretty stacked against him, especially with Gaudreau on the team. The Flames have intentionally gone out to grab size. They want to get bigger, not smaller. Mangiapane will have to become the second coming of Marchand to have a hope. Only after proving he can do that in the AHL will he get a sniff. Again, things are stacked against the kid. Hope he proves himself quickly.

Yet they drafted players like Mangiapane and Phillips. Interesting...

The situations are not different at all. The common statement was "Let's see Gaudreau do it against NHL defenseman". This statement holds true for small players no matter what league they came from.

I'm not saying they are the same caliber of player, but the statement is equally silly. You can judge players before they enter the AHL, regardless of their size.

[automaton 3]

Andersson's fitness concerns are a huge red flag for me. I think he gets a bit of a pass being called out by management last year, in his first year in camp.

But the second year to camp...absolutely no excuses. He wasn't able (unlikely) or willing (more likely) to put in a pro-level commitment to fitness. Imo he will be finding employment in Europe if he keeps down this path.

I have confidence that the Flames will continue to work with him, but you can only lead a horse to water.

[JTech780]

I went Shinkaruk, I think he has a legit chance to be a top 6 player in the NHL. Andersson for me tops out as a 4th defenseman, and that is if everything goes right in his development. I just don't see tremendous upside in Andersson.

[MrMastodonFarm]

I undervalue Shinkaruk because when he skates it looks like he's pooped his pants.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't think so at all. I feel of the players you listed Jankowski is the best bet right now to have an NHL career. He's going to at worst be a full time bottom 6 center which is still a roster spot and contributor. Shinkaruk is going to have to score at a high rate that overcomes his size deficiency to be a full time NHL player, Gillies has to show he's one of the best goaltenders in the AHL before I would be comfortable believing he has surefire NHL potential and Hickey at this point is a hope and a prayer as he still has a few years before we know where he's at.

Since when is Shinkaruk a midget? He's literally 3cm shorter than Giordano and 5cm shorter than Backlund and Bennett

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't think so at all. I feel of the players you listed Jankowski is the best bet right now to have an NHL career. He's going to at worst be a full time bottom 6 center which is still a roster spot and contributor. Shinkaruk is going to have to score at a high rate that overcomes his size deficiency to be a full time NHL player, Gillies has to show he's one of the best goaltenders in the AHL before I would be comfortable believing he has surefire NHL potential and Hickey at this point is a hope and a prayer as he still has a few years before we know where he's at.

What a joke.

Writing a book about a guy's NHL career with less than 10 games experience in the AHL.

Jankowski's collegiate numbers are comparable to Eric Nystrom and that guy has bounced all over 4th lines around the league with stints in the AHL trying to keep his job.

This is basically exactly what I'm talking about in my preceding post. I'm picking on you because you're a terrible poster, but what exactly has Jankowski actually done to get this kind of lofty praise? He's the biggest 'what if' prospect I can remember since Taratukhin.

Shinkaruk is a point a game player in the AHL and showed he can score at the NHL level. Shinkaruk may never amount to anything but thus far he's shown a hell of a lot more to think he's actually going to have a productive NHL career than Jankowski.

Just because he was in College doesn't mean he hasn't had the opportunity to play pro. If he was good enough, he would've turned pro early, it's as simple as that. College has been the best league for him to develop in because he wasn't good enough for better leagues. Just quickly scanning hockey east scoring leaders, he's the oldest player in the top 10. His scoring comparables are 1, 2 or 3 years younger than him, which is like judging a junior prospect on their overage season and anointing them a lock for the NHL.

The fact that Shinkaruk put up a point per game in the AHL for two different teams should easily vault him ahead of Jankowski who was looking like he may not have been offered a contract this year.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Yep, it's the classic internet mark of death for a prospect: actually playing games in the NHL. It's been that way for years, it must be psychological thing where fans have this vision of being destined for star status when they read and hear about guys tearing up lesser leagues.

But the second they can actually watch them at the very highest level of hockey in the world, where 99% of players don't light it up right away, it takes away some of the allure and the player will almost always see a drop in fans ratings.

I think there is a reasonable explanation. This poll is ultimately about trying to extrapolate the ceiling of every player and then rank them accordingly. That ceiling becomes much more evident (and lower) if a guy has a run of play in the NHL. That's why Wotherspoon, who looks like a steady 3rd line pairing guy, hasn't gotten a sniff yet whereas Hickey / Andersson (1st/2nd line pairing guys?) are being ranked ahead.

[MrMastodonFarm]

At no point was Jankowski looking like he may not have been offered a contract. That's pure fabrication.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

Andersson's fitness concerns are a huge red flag for me. I think he gets a bit of a pass being called out by management last year, in his first year in camp.

But the second year to camp...absolutely no excuses. He wasn't able (unlikely) or willing (more likely) to put in a pro-level commitment to fitness. Imo he will be finding employment in Europe if he keeps down this path.

I have confidence that the Flames will continue to work with him, but you can only lead a horse to water.

Lets be clear that this wasn't Flames training camp. If he comes to camp in the fall out of shape then there should be some legitimate concerns but he was arguably the best rookie at last season's training camp and he's a decorated AHL player that's almost got nothing left to prove so he's closing in on a pro career and to me fitness is one of the easiest things to be fixed. That said I'm not making excuses for the guy as he has to realize that it would be silly to sabotage a potentially lucrative NHL career because you are too lazy to get into shape.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

What a joke.

Sorry Flash but I'm not reading your post further than this. Feel free to disagree but I'm not going to waste my time responding to rebuttals like this.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Yet they drafted players like Mangiapane and Phillips. Interesting...

The situations are not different at all. The common statement was "Let's see Gaudreau do it against NHL defenseman". This statement holds true for small players no matter what league they came from.

I'm not saying they are the same caliber of player, but the statement is equally silly. You can judge players before they enter the AHL, regardless of their size.

Yes, you can judge players before they enter the AHL. You do that by comparables. I made the comparison to Marty Murray, who was a helluva junior player by the way. Murray didn't make it, even in the dark days of the Young Guns era. Size can be a bitch even when you are playing against a bunch of schmoes.

You tossed out Marchand as a comparable. Interesting selection, where I see no similarities, but using that as a comparable he was never really hyped coming out of junior. Even after his big junior season he was at best ranked as the 14th best prospect by the fan site hockey's future. Only after his breakout season in the AHL did he rise up the rankings, eventually topping out at 3rd behind Tuukka Rask and Joe Colborne. I think the point is made?