Playoff pace and controlling our own destiny

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The interesting thing about the snake is that we are barely above last year's pace, but well above this year's.

I am not following. Well above this year's pace?

[troutman]

Snakes?

[polak]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I am not following. Well above this year's pace?

He's talking about the pace of 9th place currently.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I am not following. Well above this year's pace?

What Polak said. Squiggs uses the 96-point pace because that was what it took to make the playoffs last year. Right now, the bar to make the playoffs is lower - though Minnesota is bringing it up. When I did my far less colourful look above, we were at just 89 points to make the playoffs in the west, as that was the pace of the 9th best team. Updated to today we need a pace of 92+ to remain ahead of 9th place and make the playoffs:

The Pacific/Wild card race sorted by point pace:

Vancouver     P2  96.2 + 4.8
Calgary       P3  95.7 + 4.3
Winnipeg      W1  95.4 + 4.0
San Jose      W2  93.9 + 2.5
----------------------------
Minnesota         91.4 - 2.5
Los Angeles       89.7 - 4.2
Dallas            86.6 - 7.3
Colorado          83.5 -10.4

So in just five days, Vancouver's pace has fallen back to the pack, Minnesota has pulled much closer, San Jose is fading. Winnipeg, Calgary and Los Angeles are treading water. Dallas and Colorado are falling out of the race.

[MillerTime GFG]

All I know is that I really want whoever used to make those Excel spreadsheets with our remaining games listed to make a return...the one where you could input "W, L, OTL" etc. next to each game for all teams in the hunt to see what the standings would look like at the end of the year.

Who used to make those? They were great!

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by MillerTime GFG

All I know is that I really want whoever used to make those Excel spreadsheets with our remaining games listed to make a return...the one where you could input "W, L, OTL" etc. next to each game for all teams in the hunt to see what the standings would look like at the end of the year.

Who used to make those? They were great!

Bingo was the one that made the head to head spreadsheets

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Bingo was the one that made the head to head spreadsheets

Depressing to think about how long it has been since those were needed...

Well, paging Bingo! If they're not too much work I know I for one would love to see those again.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think it makes sense to add it here.

I've updated and corrected the race to the 94 point barrier here.

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/02/ca...ntrol-destiny/


I'll add to it tomorrow, but I'm playing with strength of schedule in games remaining. Plus for every game that a team plays against a team below them in the standings I've assigned a value of 1, for a team above 0.

The Flames for example have their remaining schedule with teams with an average winning percentage of .569. They have 13 home games left, They are playing 17 teams below them in the standings.

The Jets have a average opponent winning percentage of .590, they have 15 home games left and are playing 11 teams below them in the standings.

The Sharks have an average opponent winning percentage of .569. They have 13 home games left and play 13 teams below them in the standings.

Vancouver has an average opponent winning percentage of .551 they have 15 home games and play 19 teams below them in the standings.

I plan on working out the Canucks, Wild, LA Dallas and Colorado tomorrow.

[squiggs96]

As requested, here are the MFing snakes on a MFing pace. Flames are currenlty 0.220 points below the pace. They must play .589 the rest of the way (33 points in 28 games) to achieve 96 points. The Oilers can officially no longer achieve 96 points, even with a 29 game win streak.

[polak]

Hahaha. Stupid Oilers.

The look on Eberle's face must be... as ugly as always.

[Mightyfire89]

^^^Aww, that's just mean. It's not his fault he could floss his front teeth with a battle rope.

[squiggs96]

Well look who decided to climb on top of the black snake. Welcome back to the right side of the road you sexy red snake. It was a nice time for a win, as they climb above the 96 point pace by 0.268 and are sitting at 3rd in the division.

[squiggs96]

With the OTL last night the Flames are now at 68 points, and are .098 above the pace. Why is this significant? For the first time since game #30 (December 11th loss against Buffalo) the Flames are above the 96 point pace upon the completion of two consecutive games. They will need a win Friday against Anaheim to make it three straight.

[Stay Golden]

This upcoming road trip has me worried.
Playing a bunch of Eastern teams that the Flames are not competing directly with and the Flames knack for slow starts is not an ideal mix.
They need to be at least .500 on this tough road trip to still be above 8th.

[Resolute 14]

Not as sexy as Squigg's snake, but updating again to show the point pace for everyone:

Vancouver     P2  98.1 + 4.6
Calgary       P3  96.1 + 2.6
Winnipeg      W1  97.3 + 3.8
Los Angeles   W2  94.9 + 1.4
----------------------------
Minnesota         93.5 - 1.4
San Jose          91.7 - 3.2
Dallas            89.1 - 5.8
Colorado          83.4 -11.5

Sharks and Avs in tailspins, while Dallas is barely holding on. LA replaces the Sharks, and the Wild are coming in hot. Winnipeg slightly up. Calgary and Vancouver treading water.

[polak]

I think it's pretty obvious that the Wild are going to make the playoffs. Calgary or Vancouver will be replaced.... We need to step it up.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, the Wild and Kings have found their grooves and won't be denied IMO.

Hopefully San Jose continues to struggle.

Hopefully Vancouver and Winnipeg fall off a cliff as well.

[polak]

I think this trip will make or break our chances. For some reason I can't see us just going .500

We're either going to bomb or excel.

[automaton 3]

The Kings look dominant lately. The Wild, despite their record, do not.

The Wild have a tough schedule to finish off the year and I would not be surprised to see them drop off.

[Resolute 14]

Minnesota's biggest fear is that Dubnyk's Cinderella story strikes midnight. Especially since they are riding him hard.

Even so, when I look at the injuries piling up in Winnipeg, I think they might be the team in trouble. They are weathering the storm quite well at this time, however.