Rebuild Year 1 Analysis (so far)

[Flamefan1]

Originally Posted by Dion

Coach Hartley has been a huge positive for the team. His tough love approach seemed to motivate Backlund to play some of his best hockey. We can only hope the same will apply to Baertschi if he can regain his confidence.

This is the first in many many years that we haven't heard rumours of splits in the dressing room as to how the game should be played. The team as a whole has bought into the system and works their tails off everynight. We don't always win but the effort is often exciting to watch.

There's excitement in Abby as to how our prospects are playing. From Grandlund to Ferland and Ortio there is a glimmer of hope that someday we might see some of those players in a Flames uniform.

Best of all no more talk of adding aging vets to help get us a playoff spot.

No more talk and little action from Feaster. Burke is the change we needed and I look forward to many years of truculence hockey.

Backlund credited a number of individuals for helping him gain back/improve his confidence in an interview a couple of months ago. He did not even mention Hartley, likely because Hartley did very little to improve his confidence at that point in time. Now that Backlund has improved Hartley is taking credit by stating they are working closely with him with videos.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

No Baertschi? No Bouma? I think you're underrating Klimchuk a bit, he's got sniper hands and could easily end up as a 2nd liner. Kind of rough to project the lineup due to our depth at LW and lack of depth at RW. Presumably some wingers will move to the other side.

Rebuild looking good so far IMO. Nice to see the step up from Backlund, Brodie, Russell, Bouma and Monahan. They are all proving to be part of the solution.

I like Bouma's game, that was just a slip. Baertschi I figure won't make it through Burke's tenure. I wasn't rating Klimchuk necessarily as much as I was putting him on the team.

Russell is the other guy I don't think makes it through Burke's tenure. I think he put a little rumour out that they are talking extension but in reality, he's too small for Burkie.

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

What's your opinion on Baertschi thymebalm?

Pretty high. Just don't think Burke keeps him for long enough to get his complete game going. He's got all the pieces and TGW is the best teacher there is, so I've got lots of hope for him if he sticks around.

Originally Posted by Jacks

I see lots of people putting Gaudreau in as a top line winger. Realistically he is a long shot to ever have a lasting NHL career. You can look at Fleury and St. Louis as small guys that have had great NHL careers but they outweigh Gaudreau by 30lbs. I hope I am wrong but we need to lower expectations a bit.

He's going to wind up heavier than he is today. And he's a pure goal scoring talent. He's a top line or bust player. Gaudreau doesn't have the 6'+ size to muck about in the bottom lines, but he's absolutely gifted hockey wise and hands down the best player in college hockey.

Originally Posted by FBI

You forgot about Poirier, you don't think he has some higher potential than some of these guys?
(knight?) (granlund?) (baertschi?) (reinhart?) (hanowski?) (ferland?) (Gaudreau?) (Arnold?)

He made my list where guys I've never watched and are 18 years old and don't project to be Jonathan Toews good made the list. QMJHL is hard to read because of how high event it is, plus I never watch it.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

He's going to wind up heavier than he is today. And he's a pure goal scoring talent. He's a top line or bust player. Gaudreau doesn't have the 6'+ size to muck about in the bottom lines, but he's absolutely gifted hockey wise and hands down the best player in college hockey.

College hockey is nothing like the NHL. When he is facing down the Kings, Bruins or Blues he is going to look like a teenager. I hope the kid does great but let's not be penciling him into the top 6 just yet. He hasn't even proven himself at the AHL level yet.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Flamefan1

Backlund credited a number of individuals for helping him gain back/improve his confidence in an interview a couple of months ago. He did not even mention Hartley, likely because Hartley did very little to improve his confidence at that point in time. Now that Backlund has improved Hartley is taking credit by stating they are working closely with him with videos.

To suggest Hartley had nothing to do with his improvement is ridiculous. The amount of ice time given as well as the lines he plays against factor into his improvement.

[Freeway]

Originally Posted by Dion

To suggest Hartley had nothing to do with his improvement is ridiculous. The amount of ice time given as well as the lines he plays against factor into his improvement.

Hartley's actually pointed out that Backlund's been putting the work in since May, in terms of working hard in the off-season and coming into camp in amazing shape, and working closely with the Flames video coaches to improve his game.

[4oh3]

Let's hope we finish ahead of the oilers and get a higher pick then them maybe the betman will reward us for actually trying


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Jacks

College hockey is nothing like the NHL. When he is facing down the Kings, Bruins or Blues he is going to look like a teenager. I hope the kid does great but let's not be penciling him into the top 6 just yet. He hasn't even proven himself at the AHL level yet.

College hockey is nothing like the NHL, and Johnny Hockey is nothing like the rest of the players in college hockey. There have been lots of comparisons of his play ranging from Nathan Gerbe on the low end to Paul Kariya on the high end. I don't think he'll need a second in the AHL* edit for wrong acronym.

He's scoring at a 2.0 pace. That's impressive at any level.

If you go by NHLE (a number that translates scoring from college to the NHL), he's ready to play in the big leagues, hands down. If you listen to the commentators that are around him every game, he's all they want to talk about. He's a bigger deal (right now) than you think he is.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

College hockey is nothing like the NHL, and Johnny Hockey is nothing like the rest of the players in college hockey. There have been lots of comparisons of his play ranging from Nathan Gerbe on the low end to Paul Kariya on the high end. I don't think he'll need a second in the NHL.



He's scoring at a 2.0 pace. That's impressive at any level.



If you go by NHLE (a number that translates scoring from college to the NHL), he's ready to play in the big leagues, hands down. If you listen to the commentators that are around him every game, he's all they want to talk about. He's a bigger deal (right now) than you think he is.

I agree. He is constantly underestimated. I am ok with the GM trying to temper expectations of the kid but I am concerned that Burke is writing him off completely before even giving him a chance.

[TheDebaser]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I agree. He is constantly underestimated. I am ok with the GM trying to temper expect ions of the kid but I am concerned that Burke is writing him off completely before even giving him a chance.

Your concerns are misplaced:

http://www.calgarysun.com/2013/12/12...-teams-are-big

“There’s plenty of room for small players in our game. All these teams that are competitive have small players. What I’m saying is you need some beef around them,” Burke said. “I sent a text this morning to the coach at Boston College, and said ‘Make sure your guys know we still love them.’ There’s a couple players there that we drafted. One of them is quite small — the Gaudreau kid — but he’s quite gifted, as well.

[Poe969]

After waiting for a rebuild for a few years it's finally here and I was expecting this team to be a lot worse than they are. I'd like to see this done properly and take time to do it right because I think the foundation is there for this team to do really well. I'd say they've exceeded most peoples expectations and are on the right track.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flamefan1

Backlund credited a number of individuals for helping him gain back/improve his confidence in an interview a couple of months ago. He did not even mention Hartley, likely because Hartley did very little to improve his confidence at that point in time. Now that Backlund has improved Hartley is taking credit by stating they are working closely with him with videos.

That's quite an interpretation!

I think it's healthy when people come at things without a bias at all, open mindedness is so refreshing!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I see lots of people putting Gaudreau in as a top line winger. Realistically he is a long shot to ever have a lasting NHL career. You can look at Fleury and St. Louis as small guys that have had great NHL careers but they outweigh Gaudreau by 30lbs. I hope I am wrong but we need to lower expectations a bit.

I don't think it's a question of expectations being too high, I think it is simply that, if he makes it, he'll be a top line guy. Either that, or he can't handle the size of the NHL.

IMO, it's all or nothing with Gaudreau. He has more than enough talent to be a top line NHLer. The only question is: will he be able to adapt to the play?

So if you're pencilling him onto your fantasy team, you really have no choice but to put him on the top line, IMO.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

I don't think he'll need a second in the NHL.

I'm going to presume that you meant AHL. And I disagree, I'd want him to play a full year in the AHL. Not for any talent or size related reasons, The NCAA season is 44 games... that's close to just half of an NHL season and I'd want him to get acclimated to a pro-level schedule before playing in the NHL.

[Scoutski]

Several suggestions here of rifts between players and staff (e.g. Backlund & Hartley, Gaudreau & Burke).

Honestly in the whole time I've watched the Flames (admittedly only in my 5th season), from the behaviour and interviews I've seen, a lot of the guys have never looked tighter, take for instance the Bouma & McGrattan sumo suits gag. I think everyone is getting along pretty well and believing in each other, this would definitely extend to the coaching staff.

In complete fairness though, my interpretation is just speculation as well, but I feel like there's a little bit of evidence leaning my way.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by FBI

I've actually been pretty happy with rebuild year 1 so far.

Positives:
-Hartley has players on board for hard working play, winning culture, and to some extent: accountability
-Backlund becoming the player we were hoping for and showing that he is an important part of the rebuild
-Burke at the helm should hopefully make some good moves (I'm still on the fence about Burke but he generally gets positive feedback)
-Gio showing he was an excellent choice for captain, having career year and potential Olympian
-Brodie and Bouma really coming into their own
-Moneyhands, don't need to say much more
-Our ahl team playing great and some of our future pieces shining (Reinhart, Knight, Granlund, Ortio)
-Our round 1 picks plus gaudreau plus gillies dominating
-Russell being a big surprise
-Goalies slowly coming around, doing not that bad at all for first year rebuild

Negatives:
-Baertschi, probably not handled the greatest despite putting up points and now taking his time in finding his game in the minors. Really hope he bounces back for Rebuild Year 2
-Dead weight vets: Wideman (what happened to this guy), Stempniak, David jones, galiardi, all majorly underperforming, hoping to ditch them for some assets

Going ahead I am inclined to believe that rebuild year 2 we will actually improve in the standings.
Continued improvement for some of our breakout players + shedding of dead weight + hunger of new potential big time players for us = Better than bottom 3 in the league.

I am somewhat surprised that this reaching statement (bolded) was taken as fact.


Gaudreau and Gillies have been dominating at their level.

Klimchuck, Poirer and Jankowski are not anywhere close to being dominate.

Backlund and Baertschi were better as 19 year olds in the CHL..


It is very hard to evaluate our Heat players. The stat lines of Granlund, Knight and Rienhart are so much better than what we have been accustomed to. That is a function of the Heat being a much more talented / better AHL team than we have had for a long time. The rising tide floats all ships.


The best players on the Heat have been Byron, Jones, Street, Billins . ... bubble AHL/NHL players


Brodie's 34 pts (basically leading the team in scoring) in 68 games as a 20 year old rookie pro with a +3 on the lowest scoring team in the AHL was an indicator that he was special. He didn't get a bunch of cheap assists or meaningless points in run away games.

[heep223]

I really hope that Grats is patrolling 4th line RW for the Flames until he retires.

[FBI]

I meant this years first round picks. So Poirier, klimchuk (and Monahan).
Maybe Klimchuk is not tearing it up but he is still doing very well. I would say Poirier has been excellent.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I am somewhat surprised that this reaching statement (bolded) was taken as fact.


Gaudreau and Gillies have been dominating at their level.

Klimchuck, Poirer and Jankowski are not anywhere close to being dominate.

Backlund and Baertschi were better as 19 year olds in the CHL..


It is very hard to evaluate our Heat players. The stat lines of Granlund, Knight and Rienhart are so much better than what we have been accustomed to. That is a function of the Heat being a much more talented / better AHL team than we have had for a long time. The rising tide floats all ships.


The best players on the Heat have been Byron, Jones, Street, Billins . ... bubble AHL/NHL players


Brodie's 34 pts (basically leading the team in scoring) in 68 games as a 20 year old rookie pro with a +3 on the lowest scoring team in the AHL was an indicator that he was special. He didn't get a bunch of cheap assists or meaningless points in run away games.

[Diemenz]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I am somewhat surprised that this reaching statement (bolded) was taken as fact.


Gaudreau and Gillies have been dominating at their level.

Klimchuck, Poirer and Jankowski are not anywhere close to being dominate.

Backlund and Baertschi were better as 19 year olds in the CHL..

Poirier is 9th in scoring in the Q, he is also the only player in the top 45....yep top 45 in scoring that has over 100 PM's. There is only one guy who is even close. I would say anyone in top 10 league scoring is dominating and considering he plays a lot less minutes then those other guys in the top 10 I would say "not anywhere close to be dominate" is rather inaccurate.

Klimchuk has 49 points in 39 games after coming back from an injury. Curtis Lazar who is seen as "ripping it up" in the W for a 19 year old has 54 points in 38 games. I would agree Klimchuk is not dominating the WHL but he is having a great season all things considered.

Jankowski you are spot on.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Diemenz

Poirier is 9th in scoring in the Q, he is also the only player in the top 45....yep top 45 in scoring that has over 100 PM's. There is only one guy who is even close. I would say anyone in top 10 league scoring is dominating and considering he plays a lot less minutes then those other guys in the top 10 I would say "not anywhere close to be dominate" is rather inaccurate.

Klimchuk has 49 points in 39 games after coming back from an injury. Curtis Lazar who is seen as "ripping it up" in the W for a 19 year old has 54 points in 38 games. I would agree Klimchuk is not dominating the WHL but he is having a great season all things considered.

Jankowski you are spot on.

How do you find minutes (ice-time) for the juniors? Do you mean games played? I would hope and think that he would be playing 20+ minutes a game as a 19 year old 1st round pick.

Baertschi had 94 pts in his 47 games as a 19 year in juniors and added 34 pts in 22 playoff games.

That was dominating. Poirier is 28 pts behind what Baertschi was doing after 47 games. Baertschi was on a better team.... and would not have been being relied on as much as Poirier.

Love the PIM and that he might thrive on the physical stuff.

[Diemenz]

I got the info from the WHL team pages. I looked at the top 10 in scoring minutes per game and top 50 points vs PIM's.

Poirier is very phyiscal, some of his penalties are stick penalties but they are few and far between in the offensive zone. His defensive positioning is fantastic (it's why he gets 1-2 partial break always a game) so his game there is much better then Svens was at the same point.

I agree Sven was off to a much better pace but like you said the team dynamics are considerably different as Sven had several huge point producers on his team and Poirier has very little support. Sven ripped up the W, no arguments there