Rebuild Year 1 Analysis (so far)

[Bingo]

One thing the Flames have going for them in this rebuild is direct results from their tough love, tare down and rebuild methodology for building/developing talent.

The Oilers give first picks all the ice they can handle regardless of who well they play. Have a bad game and you will still get your 19 minutes of ice time next game. Yakupov the lone exception.

In Calgary there's a consistency ...

Brodie made the Flames but wasn't good enough in his own zone, sent to the farm, he rebelled a bit, then got with the program, and emerged ready to be a big minute defenseman after the Bouwmeester trade.

Backlund looked great early, hit inconsistency, and he too needed to work on things in his own zone. Was sent down to work on his defensive game, admitted he lost some offensive touch in doing so, ran into injuries that stunted him. Even this year he didn't have the consistency on attack and muddled through the fourth line.

To have cases like that makes talking to Baertschi much easier because you can point out the road that's been traveled. He can't really argue. The fact the Swiss took a pass on him is another one for him to ponder.

Another help is the cerebral play of Monahan. That's given Calgary an example the other way, a special case that kills the "Flames never let young players play a prominent role" theory. So a recent pick can see ... if you play a consistent, 200 foot game from the onset you're here to stay. If you don't you need to develop that in your game, but we'll help you with that and you'll get another chance.

Much better edict than what's gone on up north.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Every season has good stories and not so good stories. That's what makes it fun. So that's all good. I really don't know what Burke has planned though, so I am not sure how to judge progress to date or if the direction seems like a good one. This will go down as one of the worst flames squad in team history, for the second straight year. (Splitting hairs with the young guns teams). 3 years of that will feel like someone fata-ed up, but maybe that someone has already been fired.

Will the flames be better next year? Maybe. The flames have 5-10 players on the roster that are barely nhlers. Do some get replaced with more established talent? Burke will have the cap space to do it. Do some get more opportunity to develop? Hartley seems to be pretty good at it. Do some get replaced by call ups from Abbostford or college? I don't think burke is enamoured with the prospects enough to see more than a couple make the leap, but who knows.

I don't think I will have a read on burkes rebuild until July.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Make sure we consider what division we're in. It is by far the toughest one so far. California is tearin' it up.

[thymebalm]

Well, let's see what parts we have of a championship squad...

Goaltending: D
We need one .910 goalie and one .920 goalie, we have zero. I think it'll take at least 3 years or a major signing or trade to shore up the goaltending.

Ramo - stop gap and potential backup

Berrra - not showing the potential, I don't think he's between the pipes for a Stanley Cup winner.

Ortio - Our best signed goaltending prospect. He's not ready for the NHL, but he could be ready for starts as early as next season. Seeing him in the AHL playoffs will be a good indicator of how close he is to being able to compete in the big leagues. Seeing how he performs during this callup is one thing, but i'm hestitant to use a sample size and situation like this as a testament to his true skill.

Gillies - The Flames best unsigned goalie prospect. He was basically unstoppable until the WJC (which really messed with him and his statline). He's come back down to earth a little bit, but he's still showing that he has the mettle to be a pro goalie. How high his ceiling is is anyone's guess, but he's got the size and he's checked all the boxes along the way so far.

MacDonald - gone, long gone before we are contending.

Sum up: We have maybe one piece. Maybe Ramo/Ortio/Gillies fills one of those spots (likely the backup one) but I don't see the goaltending piece that makes as compete for the cup in 2017..

Defenders: C

Brodie, Giordano
(Russell?) (Wotherspoon?) (Billins?) (Ramage?) (Sieloff?)

We've got two pieces in Gio and Brodie. That's half the top-4. I'm willing to bet that two of the questioned marked guys fill into the bottom six. Wotherspoon and Ramage seem the most likely today. But we are still missing a #1-2 and #3-4. The #3-4 might be had in the Free Agency market, but we are going to need to draft that top line d-man or pay through the nose for one on the trade market.

Forwards: F

Monahan (1-2 center) Backlund (2-3 center) Stajan (3 center)
(knight?) (granlund?) (baertschi?) (reinhart?) (hanowski?) (ferland?) (Gaudreau?) (Arnold?)

That's about it, right?

? - Monahan - ?
? - Backlund - ?
? - Stajan - ?

I think we've probably got three more pieces on the farm. Markus Granlund, Max Reinhart, and one of Corbin Knight or Michael Ferland.

I don't see the top line wingers on the farm or in the system anywhere (Please sign with Calgary, Johnny). We can get maybe one through free agency, but the other 3 are going to need to be draft picks or strong trades. I think Granlund might be able to convert to a top-six winger, and that Reinhart/Knight can be bottom 6 guys.


TLDR -> Still missing 5/6 KEY pieces: 1 starting goalie, 1 top pairing d, 1 mid pairing d, 3/4 top six wingers.

GAUDREAU - MONAHAN - ?
? - BACKLUND - GRANLUND
? - STAJAN - ?
? - ? - ?

GIORDANO - ?
BRODIE - ?
? - ?

?
ORTIO/RAMO

I believe that all those players can be a part of a winner. I'm skeptical of everything else.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by clancy

however, a generational talent, like McDavid, can accelerate things.

Maybe, but by how much? Crosby was picked after the Penguins had already drafted the likes of M-A Fleury, and Evgeny Malkin, even Ryan Whitney who was eventually dealt for Kunitz was a #5 pick. They had put pieces in place and suffered a lot before getting him.

I think Stamkos and Tavares are both pretty good players, maybe not generational, but possibly close. Stamkos team still didn't make the playoffs thill his third season in the league. Tampa is another team a bit like St.Louis and or Colorado where it's taken some years to establish themselves as a better team if we can project this season as being what type of results they will start to produce. The Islanders again, several high picks and it's looking like last year was a one time outlier that will feature at least one more follow up year with a high pick.

So if McDavid is that good, he's next years draft, add a year to that and it's 4 years into the rebuild for the competitive playoff team.

[Dion]

One thing I like about this year is we no longer have that country club atmosphere that infested this team for a number of years. A no quit attitude and a willingness to grind it out is a refreshing change.

Russell has been a huge surprise on defence. He really upped his game when Gio got hurt. A great signing by Feaster.

Brodie has taken his game to another level. He's a lot smarter with the puck and seems to be able find openings where he can rush with puck and help create scoring chances.

Backlund is finally showing us the talent we drafted him for. Excellent in his own end and also great on offence.

Not surprised with the inconsistant play of both Berra and Ramo.

[bucksmasher]

Firing Feaster may have sped up this RB in more ways than one.

1. IMO, Burke will make more constructive moves and fewer destructive moves than Feaster. GM's don't run at 100% but the closer the better.

2. I think the firing of Feaster put Hartley into a "get every last drop I can out of this team or I'm toast" mode. And I think he is getting more than Burke would have expected out of the team.This whipping and spurring by Hartley could be developing some of the supporting actors of this team into meaningful pieces of the future. Hartley is probably coaching above the level he would be under Feaster and it looks like its helping some guys make progress. Burke may be too much of an Ox to keep Hartley around long term but its working right now.

Some posters speculate on the 8 year mark until the Flames win playoff rounds. IMO that could be over pessimistic. I'm not saying there is no way it will take 8 years but I would hope under Burke things get back on track sooner. It doesn't always take the greater part of a decade to RB.

Misses so far for me are the Sven situation and a couple of plugs. But we needed plugs so no big surprise we have them.

Cheers

[CaptainCrunch]

An 8 year rebuild to win a playoff round would be an absolute terrible joke and pretty un acceptable.

anything more then 4 years means that you have a failure in scouting and your GM is doing a terrible job of acquiring assets.

In the time between the fourth and fifth year you should be pushing hard for free agents to fill in the gaps and support a fairly young core.

Lets not get sucked into the Oiler, Islander Panther theory of rebuild. The only reason why the rebuild takes so long in those cities is due to absolutely blinding incompetence and outright stupidity.

[killer_carlson]

I think Colborne goes into the positive category. He looks like he might have an NHL career after being pulled from the scrapheap.

Knight has been a disappointment as I thought he would push for a prominent NHL role this year. However, I think he has been usurped by the improvement of Backlund and the play of Monahan so it is ok, I suppose.

[TheDebaser]

Filled in some blanks and made some changes. I tried to be realistic here:

GAUDREAU/BAERTSCHI - MONAHAN - ?
GAUDREAU/BAERTSCHI- BACKLUND - GRANLUND
KLIMCHUK(?) - STAJAN - POIRIER(?)
COLBORNE - KNIGHT- THE BIG ERN

BRODIE - ?
GIORDANO (He'll be getting old though) - RUSSELL
? - ?

?
ORTIO/RAMO

I really think we're just a RW powerforward (I heard that Iginla guy is pretty good,) a very solid #1d, and a solid goalie away from having one hell of a complete hockey team.

We might have that powerforward right now in Emile Poirier.

Baertschi and Gaudreau are the most pivotal prospects here. Things get a hell of a lot easier if they figure it out. Having one or both of Gaudreau/Baertschi become a force for us would make us a real contender.

I would bet that if any team that's not the Oilers picks up the first overall, then Burke will make some waves. A guy like Ekblad could really get us going.

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I think Colborne goes into the positive category. He looks like he might have an NHL career after being pulled from the scrapheap.

Knight has been a disappointment as I thought he would push for a prominent NHL role this year. However, I think he has been usurped by the improvement of Backlund and the play of Monahan so it is ok, I suppose.

Knight isn't used to the schedule is all. He is playing well but has hit a wall after 40 some games. Look for him to put it together next year, or even towards the end of this year.

[thymebalm]

Nothing disappointing about Knight. 6th in rookie scoring in AHL, plays good in all three zones, leads Heat forwards in +/- and has an awesome attitude and some swag about him.

I just don't think he's a game changer at the NHL level... maybe he could become one, he has an awesome shot and good vision. TGW certainly likes him.

I just thought it would be too bold to project Knight as a lock for a cup champion. I think he's great, but I think the top-6 forwards on post-lockout cup teams in the NHL are crazy good.

Trying to have some semblance of reality in a fantasy projection. If I slip my homer glasses on, it looks like this:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Poirer
Granlund - Backlund - Ferland
Arnold - Stajan - Knight
Klimchuk - Colborne - McGrattan (i dunno, hahaha)

Giordano - Brodie
Russell - Wotherspoon
Ramage - Sieloff

Gillies
Ortio

^That's the game where I slot everyone in at their absolute ceiling and pretend everything is going to turn out perfect and we ice only draft picks.

[Gaskal]

Not only does the Granlund - Backlund - Ferland line stack up well as an offensive punch, you got a nice naming convention going on there.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Not only does the Granlund - Backlund - Ferland line stack up well as an offensive punch, you got a nice naming convention going on there.

It sort of wrote itself. Chemistry is chemistry

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Gaudreau - Monahan - Poirer
Granlund - Backlund - Ferland
Arnold - Stajan - Knight
Klimchuk - Colborne - McGrattan (i dunno, hahaha)

Giordano - Brodie
Russell - Wotherspoon
Ramage - Sieloff

Gillies
Ortio

^That's the game where I slot everyone in at their absolute ceiling and pretend everything is going to turn out perfect and we ice only draft picks.

No Baertschi? No Bouma? I think you're underrating Klimchuk a bit, he's got sniper hands and could easily end up as a 2nd liner. Kind of rough to project the lineup due to our depth at LW and lack of depth at RW. Presumably some wingers will move to the other side.

Potential Top 2 Line Wingers
--------------------------------
Gaudreau
Poirier
Baertschi
Klimchuk
Granlund
Ferland

We're looking fairly good here except that too small and too soft on the wings. Could use another powerforward and this draft may bring us that.

Potential Top 2 Line Centres
--------------------------------
Monahan
Backlund
Jankowski

We actually look pretty decent at centre IMO. We've got some size, skill, two-way ability. If we don't land a centre this year I'm not concerned at all.

Potential Bottom 2 Line Forwards
--------------------------------------
Bouma
Colborne
Knight
Reinhart
Arnold
Hanowski
Agostino
Jooris

Great depth in depth forwards. We should be fine here.

Potential Top 4 Defensemen
--------------------------------
Giordano
Brodie
Russell

Russell is showing top 4 defenseman form this year. We obviously lack size and strength back here. No defensive defenseman capable of logging top 4 minutes.

Potential 5-7 Defensemen
-----------------------------
Sieloff
Wotherspoon
Ramage
Kulak
Culkin
Breen
Billins
Kanzig

Seem pretty set with depth defensemen.

Potential Starting Goalies
-----------------------------
Joni Ortio
Jon Gillies

Definitely a bit of a question mark here.

Overall our depth is quite good. As Burke has noted we need some size strength added at key positions (top 6 forward, top 4 D). Luckily he's got some assets with which he could package together to try and get those types. I could see Burke packaging up a few of our prospects to grab a key young player. And this years draft has a lot of big forwards around where we may be drafting if we don't finish bottom 3.

Rebuild looking good so far IMO. Nice to see the step up from Backlund, Brodie, Russell, Bouma and Monahan. They are all proving to be part of the solution.

[TheDebaser]

What's your opinion on Baertschi thymebalm?

[Jacks]

I see lots of people putting Gaudreau in as a top line winger. Realistically he is a long shot to ever have a lasting NHL career. You can look at Fleury and St. Louis as small guys that have had great NHL careers but they outweigh Gaudreau by 30lbs. I hope I am wrong but we need to lower expectations a bit.

[Dion]

Coach Hartley has been a huge positive for the team. His tough love approach seemed to motivate Backlund to play some of his best hockey. We can only hope the same will apply to Baertschi if he can regain his confidence.

This is the first in many many years that we haven't heard rumours of splits in the dressing room as to how the game should be played. The team as a whole has bought into the system and works their tails off everynight. We don't always win but the effort is often exciting to watch.

There's excitement in Abby as to how our prospects are playing. From Grandlund to Ferland and Ortio there is a glimmer of hope that someday we might see some of those players in a Flames uniform.

Best of all no more talk of adding aging vets to help get us a playoff spot.

No more talk and little action from Feaster. Burke is the change we needed and I look forward to many years of truculence hockey.

[FBI]

You forgot about Poirier, you don't think he has some higher potential than some of these guys?
(knight?) (granlund?) (baertschi?) (reinhart?) (hanowski?) (ferland?) (Gaudreau?) (Arnold?)

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Well, let's see what parts we have of a championship squad...

Goaltending: D
We need one .910 goalie and one .920 goalie, we have zero. I think it'll take at least 3 years or a major signing or trade to shore up the goaltending.

Ramo - stop gap and potential backup

Berrra - not showing the potential, I don't think he's between the pipes for a Stanley Cup winner.

Ortio - Our best signed goaltending prospect. He's not ready for the NHL, but he could be ready for starts as early as next season. Seeing him in the AHL playoffs will be a good indicator of how close he is to being able to compete in the big leagues. Seeing how he performs during this callup is one thing, but i'm hestitant to use a sample size and situation like this as a testament to his true skill.

Gillies - The Flames best unsigned goalie prospect. He was basically unstoppable until the WJC (which really messed with him and his statline). He's come back down to earth a little bit, but he's still showing that he has the mettle to be a pro goalie. How high his ceiling is is anyone's guess, but he's got the size and he's checked all the boxes along the way so far.

MacDonald - gone, long gone before we are contending.

Sum up: We have maybe one piece. Maybe Ramo/Ortio/Gillies fills one of those spots (likely the backup one) but I don't see the goaltending piece that makes as compete for the cup in 2017..

Defenders: C

Brodie, Giordano
(Russell?) (Wotherspoon?) (Billins?) (Ramage?) (Sieloff?)

We've got two pieces in Gio and Brodie. That's half the top-4. I'm willing to bet that two of the questioned marked guys fill into the bottom six. Wotherspoon and Ramage seem the most likely today. But we are still missing a #1-2 and #3-4. The #3-4 might be had in the Free Agency market, but we are going to need to draft that top line d-man or pay through the nose for one on the trade market.

Forwards: F

Monahan (1-2 center) Backlund (2-3 center) Stajan (3 center)
(knight?) (granlund?) (baertschi?) (reinhart?) (hanowski?) (ferland?) (Gaudreau?) (Arnold?)

That's about it, right?

? - Monahan - ?
? - Backlund - ?
? - Stajan - ?

I think we've probably got three more pieces on the farm. Markus Granlund, Max Reinhart, and one of Corbin Knight or Michael Ferland.

I don't see the top line wingers on the farm or in the system anywhere (Please sign with Calgary, Johnny). We can get maybe one through free agency, but the other 3 are going to need to be draft picks or strong trades. I think Granlund might be able to convert to a top-six winger, and that Reinhart/Knight can be bottom 6 guys.


TLDR -> Still missing 5/6 KEY pieces: 1 starting goalie, 1 top pairing d, 1 mid pairing d, 3/4 top six wingers.

GAUDREAU - MONAHAN - ?
? - BACKLUND - GRANLUND
? - STAJAN - ?
? - ? - ?

GIORDANO - ?
BRODIE - ?
? - ?

?
ORTIO/RAMO

I believe that all those players can be a part of a winner. I'm skeptical of everything else.

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by FBI

You forgot about Poirier, you don't think he has some higher potential than some of these guys?
(knight?) (granlund?) (baertschi?) (reinhart?) (hanowski?) (ferland?) (Gaudreau?) (Arnold?)

Also Klimchuck and Jankowski. Not saying those guys are guaranteed top-6 guys or anything, but it seems odd to exclude three 1st round picks in your analysis.