Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Rerun

The younger crowd doesn't have a great voting record anyways (I know my 25 yo step-daughter can't be bothered to vote), so I doubt the weather will make a significant impact... and what impact it does make will more likely affect parties other than WR. Not sure whether the youth vote (what there is of it) votes for the PC party either.

You'd be surprised. Most youth in this province are bleeding heart socialists. I know quite a few 25-30 year olds that are voting PC or Wildrose. In fact the biggest Wildrose supporter I know is 25. And he's a teacher too, so he is an enigma!

[bizaro86]

Rats, I knew I was missing one of our dynasties.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Rerun

The younger crowd doesn't have a great voting record anyways (I know my 25 yo step-daughter can't be bothered to vote), so I doubt the weather will make a significant impact... and what impact it does make will more likely affect parties other than WR. Not sure whether the youth vote (what there is of it) votes for the PC party either.

Hey! My demographic (20) resembles that remark!

(Already voted)

I think the younger demographic is a little more left leaning. At least, when I ran mock polls in my split Jr/Sr high, there would always be a slow progression from ultra-Left Wing (grade 7-8) to less so (grade 11-12).

[bizaro86]

To get a bit back on topic

PC - 40
Wildrose - 40
Libs - 4
NDP - 3

A tie, followed by a flurry of floor crossing both directions, as both parties try to woo their rivals to get over the line. After 4 newly minted invalidate their constituents' wishes in search of personal power in each direction, they decide to leave it a tie. Redford governs with the tacit understanding that she requires wildrose support to actually do anything, a situation which lasts ~7 months. Then we get a new election.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by kirant

Hey! My demographic resembles that remark!

(Already voted)

Likewise. I was so excited to vote I went yesterday. Advance polls closing on Sat. gmg.

[Rerun]

A bit surprised to see that PC is leading WR at 44 to 38 on our poll at this moment. Is CP that far out of step with the general populace or is there a bit of a CP Jihad or strategic polling going on here so that the WR goes down in defeat on CP?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Rerun

A bit surprised to see that PC is leading WR at 44 to 38 on our poll at this moment. Is CP that far out of step with the general populace or is there a bit of a CP Jihad or strategic polling going on here so that the WR goes down in defeat on CP?

Obviously, Wildrose supporters are all decent hard-working citizens who don't have time to post on CP during the work day.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Rerun

A bit surprised to see that PC is leading WR at 44 to 38 on our poll at this moment. Is CP that far out of step with the general populace or is there a bit of a CP Jihad or strategic polling going on here so that the WR goes down in defeat on CP?

I think CP is mostly left leaning. Having said that, in the time (5'ish) years I've think it has shifted a bit to the right.

I like to think I'm responsible for that.

[Senator Clay Davis]

If CP was a bit more left leaning, how are "Other" beating the NDP 7-1?

[darklord700]

WR supporters know they are going to win, so why tip their hands?

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by First Lady

I think CP is mostly left leaning. Having said that, in the time (5'ish) years I've think it has shifted a bit to the right.

I like to think I'm responsible for that.

Well, your avatar shifted something to the right....

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

If CP was a bit more left leaning, how are "Other" beating the NDP 7-1?

The Alberta Party?

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by getbak

Obviously, Wildrose supporters are all decent hard-working citizens who don't have time to post on CP during the work day.

I'm obviously the exception to the rule...

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by First Lady

I think CP is mostly left leaning. Having said that, in the time (5'ish) years I've think it has shifted a bit to the right.

I like to think I'm responsible for that.

Has opinion shifted or has CP just become larger and thus follows more populist lines?

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by First Lady

I think CP is mostly left leaning. Having said that, in the time (5'ish) years I've think it has shifted a bit to the right.

I like to think I'm responsible for that.

Originally Posted by old-fart

Well, your avatar shifted something to the right....

And its growing too!

[Rerun]

Hey... this ignore feature works pretty good!

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'd say many of the posters here are really centrists/independant. I think (hope?) the Alberta Party can get a kind of Wildrose-like surge for the next election. I quite like Glenn Taylor.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Yeah_Baby

Regardless though of what happens tonight, I see the years of 4 decade long dynasties as over.

I agree. My prediction is that either
a) we have minority governments and/or swapping small majority governments for the next 8-10 years. \
b) The liberal party doesn't die a horrible death, and the PC party implodes on itself the next election

After that, things might settle down.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I agree. My prediction is that either
a) one party wins a massive majority today
b) we have minority governments and/or swapping small majority governments for the next 8-10 years. \
c) The liberal party doesn't die a horrible death, and the PC party implodes on itself the next election

After that, things might settle down.

Watch Alberta be a two party system in a decade. Wildrose on the right, Alberta Party on the Left.

[GP_Matt]

I like the idea of a two party system, you always have a majority but usually a strong opposition.
I can't imagine the other parties folding into the Alberta banner though. I can picture them drifting into irrelevance at some future point and us being left with two significant parties and several others who run candidates but don't win.