2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by VERVE

He is only 23 yrs young. He has been a 1 or 2 pitch pitcher. If he works on his secondary pitches, his potential is high to be a star in the rotation. He is way too young to be counted out.

I wouldn't count him out, but I think he profiles better as a reliever. I think he struggles too much with his accuracy with his fastball to get deep into games.

[howard_the_duck]

Too early to count out Sanchez, IMO. Ideally if he could work in a 4-seam fastball or cutter, that could stabilize his control as his 2-seamer has so much movement it's hard to know where it will end up.

There was a period of 4-5 starts last year before he went down to injury that he seemed to have turned the corner. I would not rule out him ending up as a very good #2 starter down the road.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I wouldn't count him out, but I think he profiles better as a reliever. I think he struggles too much with his accuracy with his fastball to get deep into games.

Yeah, Sanchez strikes me as a guy that will take a bigger hit then usual in the times through the order penalty. It isn't just that his secondaries are under-developed it's that his fastball is difficult to control. Give a guy a couple of looks at it and they can figure out when it's going to move out of the zone.

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

There was a period of 4-5 starts last year before he went down to injury that he seemed to have turned the corner.

And in J.A. Happ's last 11 starts he looked like the best pitcher in baseball but I'm not going to put any money down on J.A. Happ winning the AL Cy Young next year. Beware small sample sizes they lead to far to much fan fiction

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah, Sanchez strikes me as a guy that will take a bigger hit then usual in the times through the order penalty. It isn't just that his secondaries are under-developed it's that his fastball is difficult to control. Give a guy a couple of looks at it and they can figure out when it's going to move out of the zone.



And in J.A. Happ's last 11 starts he looked like the best pitcher in baseball but I'm not going to put any money down on J.A. Happ winning the AL Cy Young next year. Beware small sample sizes they lead to far to much fan fiction

J.A Happ, a 33 year old veteran, is a much different story than a young prospect making adjustments to his mechanics. Look at Roy Halladay - he had even more pronounced K/BB problems than Sanchez and they carried into his age 24 season. A simple arm angle fix turned him into one of the best pitchers in Jays history. Not saying that's what will happen with Sanchez, but the arm and stuff is similarly there. It's simply way too early to rule him out as a starting pitcher.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

J.A Happ, a 33 year old veteran, is a much different story than a young prospect making adjustments to his mechanics. Look at Roy Halladay - he had even more pronounced K/BB problems than Sanchez and they carried into his age 24 season. A simple arm angle fix turned him into one of the best pitchers in Jays history. Not saying that's what will happen with Sanchez, but the arm and stuff is similarly there. It's simply way too early to rule him out as a starting pitcher.

I don't think anyone is ruling him out, just stating what his likely trajectory is. He has the stuff, but needs improvements to be a rotation guy. If he can make the adjustments then he can likely be a #2 starter. If not, he fits better in the 'pen. The nice thing is that he is good enough to be a late inning guy if he can't make the proper adjustments to fit the rotation.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by JayP

Because this never happens with top free agents? Do you think that the player's association is going to let Price leave tens of millions of dollars on the table and drive down the price of other top pitchers? And this all ignores the fact that the Red Sox could just keep upping the price - $217m is what they got him for, not necessarily their ceiling. They were getting Price no matter what. The reports say they initially offered $200 million, then the Cards came into the bidding at $190 million. So the Red Sox responded by upping their offer to $217 million. That's 27 million more than the next closest team which is ridiculous.

I'd like to hear what your idea of a respectable offer from the Jays would've been during this time that would've changed his mind. Keeping in consideration that the players association is breathing down his neck and his agent also stands to lose hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars too by leaving money on the table as well.

The players' assoc. can say what they want, the final decision is Price's.
My past posts of offering a respectable offer for Price is basing it on a few factors. His agent has stated that Price enjoyed playing for the Jays and was willing to sign there and was surprised no offer came. The team is essentially intact from last year. Him and Stroman has some friendship going. Given those parameters, at least present a respectable offer to start the ball rolling such as 20-25 million per season for ex. 6 or 7 yrs. It is not close to the ridiculous offer of Boston but if Price balks at Jays' offer or counters with a crazy offer, then both parties can walk. at least presnt a darn offer! If they can pay Happ 12 million/season for 3 yrs as a 33 yr old that has never been an ace, well, you can certainly spend more for David Price.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I don't think anyone is ruling him out.

I was referring to this

Originally Posted by Parallex

As a starter I absolutely do think the boat has sailed on Sanchez

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by JayP

Because this never happens with top free agents? Do you think that the player's association is going to let Price leave tens of millions of dollars on the table and drive down the price of other top pitchers?

The MLBPA is going to force a player to sign with a team he doesn't like and go to a city he doesn't want to live in? I highly doubt that. All over his salary being 28m instead of 31m or something?

Extreme example:

Star Free Agent: "I want to sign with Team A because I liked them as a kid and I want to live in that city. I'm willing to leave a little money on the table because this is the best thing for me and my family. They even made the playoffs last year"

MLBPA: "Team B is offering you 10% more. You better sign with them."

Star Free Agent: "Team B won 65 games last year and I don't want to live there."

MLBPA: "Too bad, so sad. If you sign with Team A, we'll be really mad at you."

Star Free Agent: "Oh shiate, I guess I never thought of it that way, Team B it is."

I realize that 95% of the time, a player is just going with the team that offered the most, that's just obvious. I just don't think there's any evidence that the MLBPA has ever pressured a star in the manner you suggest, when one of those 5% situations pop up where money isn't the #1 issue.

Honestly, what's the MLBPA going to do if one of these stars doesn't max out his contract for whatever reason? Give him a stern talking to while waggling their finger at him?

[cross16]

Originally Posted by VERVE

If you really want a legit ace, you make an offer. That is the business world of sports. Everything is up for sale and negotiation. If the counter offer is too high and there is no way both parties can come to an agreement, then you walk. Simple. If you don't ask, you will never know especially if Price really enjoyed playing here. He could have taken a discount since all players were coming back from last year. BoSox's offer was ridiculous and probably Price was not expecting that but desperate teams do desperate things. For the Jays, what was there to lose except an answer of "No thanks". I guess the Jays does not want Price that bad afterall.

This doesn' tmake alot of sense. First off the Boston offer was not that ridiculous as Scherzer set the market last year with his 7 year 200 million deal so you knew Price was getting at least that. So if you weren't prepared to offer close to that you weren't getting Price, everyone in baseball knows that so why bother wasting your time to put together an offer that you know will not be accepted? The Jays would have had to been at last in the ball park of 7 years and 200 million and I bet they, very smartly I might add, never wanted to go close to 7 years or that much more than 170 million. I think you are insulting someine if you offer them 30 million dollars less than someone else.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

I wouldn't count him out, but I think he profiles better as a reliever. I think he struggles too much with his accuracy with his fastball to get deep into games.

One would say those struggles are part and parcel of being a very young and inexperienced pitcher. His ceiling is high and he should be strectched out for the rotation instead of pitching in the bullpen.

[cross16]

Before they moved him into the bullpen last year I actually liked how Sanchez was trending. His last 6 starts he averaged 6.5 Innings with a sub 4 ERA and while the hits were high he seemed to figure out his sinker and getting ground balls and DP. I don't have a problem with him as a reliever for one more year because I agree his fastball command needs to improve but I think there is good reason to believe he can still start.

Osuna i'm more divided on. I think he has legit top 2 stuff but he also admitted he prefers closing becuase he likes to pitch more often and definetly has the stuff to close for a long time. If they Jays had a potential internal replacement id be more inclined to look at Osuna as a starter but I don't see anyone on the Horizon that could do it.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by cross16

This doesn' tmake alot of sense. First off the Boston offer was not that ridiculous as Scherzer set the market last year with his 7 year 200 million deal so you knew Price was getting at least that. So if you weren't prepared to offer close to that you weren't getting Price, everyone in baseball knows that so why bother wasting your time to put together an offer that you know will not be accepted? The Jays would have had to been at last in the ball park of 7 years and 200 million and I bet they, very smartly I might add, never wanted to go close to 7 years or that much more than 170 million. I think you are insulting someine if you offer them 30 million dollars less than someone else.

Optics matter, they literally lost ticket sales over this IMO. The casual fan doesn't care about anything you just wrote there. If all the goodwill and momentum from last year wasn't already gone, it was the moment Price's agent said what he said. By June, it will be like 2015 never even happened.

They officially confirmed that the Jays aren't interested in using their considerable resources to field the best team possible. All the people that jumped on the bandwagon last year aren't going to be impressed when they hear that they couldn't even be bothered to try.

Hope Rogers enjoyed the $100m windfall, because it was likely a once in a generation scenario with the way they run the team.

[cross16]

Before they moved him into the bullpen last year I actually liked how Sanchez was trending. His last 6 starts he averaged 6.5 Innings with a sub 4 ERA and while the hits were high he seemed to figure out his sinker and getting ground balls and DP. I don't have a problem with him as a reliever for one more year because I agree his fastball command needs to improve but I think there is good reason to believe he can still start.

Osuna i'm more divided on. I think he has legit top 2 stuff but he also admitted he prefers closing becuase he likes to pitch more often and definetly has the stuff to close for a long time. If they Jays had a potential internal replacement id be more inclined to look at Osuna as a starter but I don't see anyone on the Horizon that could do it.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by VERVE

The players' assoc. can say what they want, the final decision is Price's.

Then you clearly don't understand the influence the players associations have on players. Price isn't negotiating in a vacuum. His contract sets the bar for future contracts to top tier pitching free agents, which has a trickle down effect to everything from other pitching free agent contracts to arbitration hearings. It's ignorant to just say "Price can do what he wants". Players have very tight knit bonds and David Price leaving the money on the table can have a major effect on the rest of those guys. If you don't think the MLBPA is in his ear telling him that then you're a fool.

My past posts of offering a respectable offer for Price is basing it on a few factors. His agent has stated that Price enjoyed playing for the Jays and was willing to sign there and was surprised no offer came. The team is essentially intact from last year. Him and Stroman has some friendship going. Given those parameters, at least present a respectable offer to start the ball rolling such as 20-25 million per season for ex. 6 or 7 yrs. It is not close to the ridiculous offer of Boston but if Price balks at Jays' offer or counters with a crazy offer, then both parties can walk. at least presnt a darn offer! If they can pay Happ 12 million/season for 3 yrs as a 33 yr old that has never been an ace, well, you can certainly spend more for David Price.

That's a range of $120mil to $175mil - so clearly you haven't thought this through. One is almost half of what he ended up getting and one is probably a realistic first offer that Price's camp would listen to. Either way, the $175mil is $42 million less than Boston's winning offer (and, again, not necessarily their ceiling) so it's getting tossed in the trash. Do you not realize that the Jays could have discussed the initial offers from the Red Sox ($200mil) and Cardinals ($190mil) with Price's Camp and just bowed out because their ceiling wasn't even close to those?

When you go shopping for a new car, do you take a swing by the Ferrari dealership and offer them $100k for a $200k car just to see what happens? If you know the response to your offer going in, what's the point of making one in the first place?

Seems like such a ridiculous thing to get worked up about - making an offer that you know in hindsight was just going to get rejected.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by JayP

Then you clearly don't understand the influence the players associations have on players. Price isn't negotiating in a vacuum. His contract sets the bar for future contracts to top tier pitching free agents, which has a trickle down effect to everything from other pitching free agent contracts to arbitration hearings. It's ignorant to just say "Price can do what he wants". Players have very tight knit bonds and David Price leaving the money on the table can have a major effect on the rest of those guys. If you don't think the MLBPA is in his ear telling him that then you're a fool.

Are you assuming this is the case or do you having any sources or evidence to back it up? I highly doubt the MLBPA, or any players for that matter, would care if Price signed for 7 year 200m to go where he wanted and left 7 year 217m on the table.

I'm assuming you must have a link or something to back up your personal attack.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JayP

Then you clearly don't understand the influence the players associations have on players. Price isn't negotiating in a vacuum. His contract sets the bar for future contracts to top tier pitching free agents, which has a trickle down effect to everything from other pitching free agent contracts to arbitration hearings. It's ignorant to just say "Price can do what he wants". Players have very tight knit bonds and David Price leaving the money on the table can have a major effect on the rest of those guys. If you don't think the MLBPA is in his ear telling him that then you're a fool.



That's a range of $120mil to $175mil - so clearly you haven't thought this through. One is almost half of what he ended up getting and one is probably a realistic first offer that Price's camp would listen to. Either way, the $175mil is $42 million less than Boston's winning offer (and, again, not necessarily their ceiling) so it's getting tossed in the trash. Do you not realize that the Jays could have discussed the initial offers from the Red Sox ($200mil) and Cardinals ($190mil) with Price's Camp and just bowed out because their ceiling wasn't even close to those?

When you go shopping for a new car, do you take a swing by the Ferrari dealership and offer them $100k for a $200k car just to see what happens? If you know the response to your offer going in, what's the point of making one in the first place?

Seems like such a ridiculous thing to get worked up about - making an offer that you know in hindsight was just going to get rejected.

How do we know that the sales tag on Price would have gotten to the ridiculous Boston number if AA had have been allowed to make an offer to Price back in early November? I'm sure the guy was going to get 25-30 M a year regardless, but the extra years Boston tacked on to entice him to sign there may not have been necessary if a deal has been negotiated. It was reported a week before he signed that Boston wasn't one of his first choices.

The fact of the matter is, Price wanted to be back in Toronto and Toronto had a exclusive window to come to a agreement with him before silly season started. The fact that they didn't even discuss anything with his agent is pretty brutal and damning towards the way Jays management/ownership operate.

[VERVE]

Originally Posted by cross16

This doesn' tmake alot of sense. First off the Boston offer was not that ridiculous as Scherzer set the market last year with his 7 year 200 million deal so you knew Price was getting at least that. So if you weren't prepared to offer close to that you weren't getting Price, everyone in baseball knows that so why bother wasting your time to put together an offer that you know will not be accepted? The Jays would have had to been at last in the ball park of 7 years and 200 million and I bet they, very smartly I might add, never wanted to go close to 7 years or that much more than 170 million. I think you are insulting someine if you offer them 30 million dollars less than someone else.

I beg to differ. Boston's offer was ridiculous esp for the length of the contract. He is untradable with age. You missed my point. Scherzer's salary is structured way differently than Price's in Boston. Scherzer salary (10MM,15MM,15MM,15MM,35MM,35,35) and the bulk of it (105MM) is paid over a period through 2028 (not necessarily better either). The parameters I outlined for Price to sign here could allow for a discount. If the Jays had offered first at 25 million per season and Price's agent could come back at 28MM (who knows). Price's salary jumps from 7.5MM to ex. 28MM is not insulting.

"The Blue Jays were the biggest surprise. David would've absolutely gone back there," McKinnis said on Sunday. "That was the toughest part of this and I'm surprised we did not get an offer.
"He had a wonderful time there and the bulk of the club is back there and he would've enjoyed being with them."

The Jays were simply not that interested in signing Price. They rather spend the money on average upgrades over areas in their current line-up particularly pitching. So now the Jays' will get average pitching (like 1 to 2 years before) without a bonafide ace in the rotation. So as their batting line-up ages ie Bautista and EE, our window for post season advancement closes more and more.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Optics matter, they literally lost ticket sales over this IMO. The casual fan doesn't care about anything you just wrote there. If all the goodwill and momentum from last year wasn't already gone, it was the moment Price's agent said what he said. By June, it will be like 2015 never even happened.

They officially confirmed that the Jays aren't interested in using their considerable resources to field the best team possible. All the people that jumped on the bandwagon last year aren't going to be impressed when they hear that they couldn't even be bothered to try.

Hope Rogers enjoyed the $100m windfall, because it was likely a once in a generation scenario with the way they run the team.

Do you think making an offer changes anything though? I'm not sure a fan would walk away content that they at least made an offer if they don't get the player. I think instead of complaining that there was no offer made, they would just complain that they should have offered more.

One thing worth pointing out that peole are also missing too that currently with the Canadian Dollar a payroll of 140 million US is the equivilant to 190 Million Canadian. To start last year the same 140 Million payroll would have been in the 160million dollar range. So I dont' agree that they arn't reinvesting that money becuase in order to jsut keep the payroll the same they have to reinvest a huge chunk of that "profit".

Rodgers isn't perfect, no corporate ownership is, and sure I would prefer a private owner who was more willing to lose money but who stepped up do that? They arn't the best owner but they are far from terrible IMO.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by VERVE

I beg to differ. Boston's offer was ridiculous esp for the length of the contract. He is untradable with age. You missed my point. Scherzer's salary is structured way differently than Price's in Boston. Scherzer salary (10MM,15MM,15MM,15MM,35MM,35,35) and the bulk of it (105MM) is paid over a period through 2028 (not necessarily better either). The parameters I outlined for Price to sign here could allow for a discount. If the Jays had offered first at 25 million per season and Price's agent could come back at 28MM (who knows). Price's salary jumps from 7.5MM to ex. 28MM is not insulting.

"The Blue Jays were the biggest surprise. David would've absolutely gone back there," McKinnis said on Sunday. "That was the toughest part of this and I'm surprised we did not get an offer.
"He had a wonderful time there and the bulk of the club is back there and he would've enjoyed being with them."

The Jays were simply not that interested in signing Price. They rather spend the money on average upgrades over areas in their current line-up particularly pitching. So now the Jays' will get average pitching (like 1 to 2 years before) without a bonafide ace in the rotation. So as their batting line-up ages ie Bautista and EE, our window for post season advancement closes more and more.

I agree that IMO the Price contract is ridiculous. What I meant was based on the market it was not a ridiculous contract, its in the ballpark of what the market dictates based on the Scherzer deal.

They weren't intersted in signing Price at what his market value was. I don't think it was a case of we don't want David Price, it was we don't want David Price at 30 million dollars a year over a 5-7 year deal. I know if you add up Estrade and Happ you get close to the 30 million they maybe could ahve got Price for, but what happen in 3 years from now when you have Price, Tulo, Donaldson and Martin and combine you are probably paying them 90 Million. That's just not a good business model to build a contending team IMO, too much money tied up in so few guys.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by cross16

Do you think making an offer changes anything though? I'm not sure a fan would walk away content that they at least made an offer if they don't get the player. I think instead of complaining that there was no offer made, they would just complain that they should have offered more.

One thing worth pointing out that peole are also missing too that currently with the Canadian Dollar a payroll of 140 million US is the equivilant to 190 Million Canadian. To start last year the same 140 Million payroll would have been in the 160million dollar range. So I dont' agree that they arn't reinvesting that money becuase in order to jsut keep the payroll the same they have to reinvest a huge chunk of that "profit".

Rodgers isn't perfect, no corporate ownership is, and sure I would prefer a private owner who was more willing to lose money but who stepped up do that? They arn't the best owner but they are far from terrible IMO.

As has been mentioned multiple times in this thread, Rogers is a very large multinational corporation and would be hedged om multiple fronts against any foreign currency fluctuations. The exchange rate is a mute point in tbe short term.

That said, the share of the playoff Revenue The Jays got from MLB was in USD.