Israel declares war on Hamas

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by GreatWhiteEbola

I have learned a great deal from certain posters about the region and the geopolitics, that I am grateful for. I have also learned that certain tribes really hate each other and that's unfortunate. I was away from civilization for the last week and was back in the realm of media on Tuesday morning, I unexpectedly saw some horrific videos of the event at the Music Festival for Peace and was very angry.

I messaged a good friend who told me that this was to be expected given the way US foreign policy has influenced the areas, I just can't comprehend the lack of humanity, to not even preface their comments with condemnation of the acts of the terrorists. To be fair, they had probably had time to process what it was that I had just seen.

In this thread, I have read glimmers of understanding between the most vocal for both sides. Hopefully, the discourse can remain civil, we can all benefit from knowing exactly who and what led up to this as well as understanding the required response for such acts.

**My apologies I just had to write something, a week of isolation to be reading some of the comments here was really disheartening and not what people would be like if they were in a room together, that is all.

This has been the saddest part of the dialogue to me.
I also have friends who are very pro Palestine and have been vocal about it for years, and they either don't acknowledge what Hamas did here at all or give it a very dismissive "It's wrong, but but but..."

As an outsider looking at this, I just can fathom that perspective.
They're essentially ready to accept any level of brutality because they feel they've been wronged for so long (which may be true).

That shows you how far this conflict has gone, and there's no way to find peace here at this point.

[Zarley]

The stories coming out from this are simply horrifying. The slaughter of people partying at a music festival, entire families executed in theirs homes, terrorists killing people and uploading the video of it to the deceased's Facebook account for friends and family to see etc...

It's absolutely disgusting to see people celebrating this kind of violence. All of this misery stemming from arguments over an imaginary man in the sky.

[Bigtime]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1712121631357698207

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

As of 6min ago, and possibly being accompanied with paragliders:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1712127993361887381

I've seen some pictures of Israeli tanks and other armored vehicles basically just sitting in rows in an open field. The assumption seemed to be that because they were in the north of the country they'd be relatively safe, but that might not be the case with this. Hopefully they've learned lessons form Ukraine and can effectively respond to drones.

[Fuzz]

Were those drones from Lebanon?

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by blankall

This thread is totally off the rails right now.

Let's merge it with the grizzly thread.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Educate me please.
So Palestinians are essentially cut off from supply routes and trapped. Supplies are already running low (apparently). Why would Hamas have put themselves in this position? Couldn’t they have seen this coming, or are they expecting help from other countries?

The misery of the people of Gaza is an essential part of Hamas’ strategy. Their attacks were intended to provoke Israel into retaliating massively against Gaza. The more images broadcast of children’s bodies being carried from the wreckage of bombed buildings, the more attention and support they hope to earn from the outside world.

Of course, global sympathy for Hamas has already been undermined by their butchering of hundreds of defenceless women and children in Israel and dancing over their graves. But we’re talking about radical religious fanatics, so cooly reasoned long-term strategy isn’t exactly their strong suit.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Educate me please.
So Palestinians are essentially cut off from supply routes and trapped. Supplies are already running low (apparently). Why would Hamas have put themselves in this position? Couldn’t they have seen this coming, or are they expecting help from other countries?

Ok, take the whole supply thing with a grain of salt, and of course this is speculation on my part.


But I expect that Hamas has stocked a great deal of food and water and essentials that they have taken from humanitarian efforts, and are not going to share this with Palestinians, They probably have a pretty big stock pile of ammunition, rockets etc.



They wouldn't have launched this attack without knowing that there would be a very large seige. To Hamas the ordinary Palestinian isn't important, its better if they starve or die, but its important that their members are fed and watered and able to fight and draw blood.


So yes, its likely that the ordinary citizen in Gaza is going to suffer. Hamas doesn't care. They're happy to see starving citizens or no access to medicines and essentials because they can use this to force yet another cease fire on the international stage.



Because if they didn't stockpile, then this plan makes no sense because of the drop in moral and the drop in the effectiveness of a building to building defense.


Now what might effect this is that Israel is dropping a lot of buildings that contained these stockpiles.



Just a guess.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Were those drones from Lebanon?

The US has just announced they're closing their embassy in Lebanon and advising US citizen's to leave.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Hamas is probably mostly made up of young men who know nothing other than life in Gaza. I'd have to imagine that's pretty hopeless, not many jobs, constant reliance on international aid, and really zero control of their own destiny. Years of seathing anger and hatred looks to have pushed them beyond the point of rational decisions, and they have gone all in on this hand. That, and foreign interference from places like Iran may have propelled this action as well.


The fact that none of us can really see a way out of this might give some insight into their hopelessness. If you see no prospect for a future, a family, and life, you probably tend to care less about the repercussions of your actions. You are the walking dead already.

The other interested parties that are lining their purses (Iran/Russia) also had an interest in disrupting Israeli and Saudi relationships and has a bonus effect of further closing support for Ukraine if the conflict goes beyond Gaza

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

As of 6min ago, and possibly being accompanied with paragliders:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1712127993361887381

This account is well known for publishing disinfo and fake stories indiscriminately; in fact I wouldn't rely on info from Twitter this point in any instance, but definitely not from this account.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The US has just announced they're closing their embassy in Lebanon and advising US citizen's to leave.

Has this been announced by anyone that isn't a random guy on Twitter? Nothing on the official embassy channels so far.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Has this been announced by anyone that isn't a random guy on Twitter? Nothing on the official embassy channels so far.

AlJazeera and CNN reporting it now, not much info except alerts in the north.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

AlJazeera and CNN reporting it now, not much info except alerts in the north.

I mean specifically the Lebanon embassy closure and the State dpt warning.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Zarley

The stories coming out from this are simply horrifying. The slaughter of people partying at a music festival, entire families executed in theirs homes, terrorists killing people and uploading the video of it to the deceased's Facebook account for friends and family to see etc...

It's absolutely disgusting to see people celebrating this kind of violence. All of this misery stemming from arguments over an imaginary man in the sky.

I think the current era of fighting has much more to do with land, governance, and era old retribution than with actual religion.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I think the current era of fighting has much more to do with land, governance, and era old retribution than with actual religion.

Both the PLO and the early Zionist movements were largely nationalist/secular. More recently groups like Hamas (the Muslim Brotherhood) and Ultra Orthodox Jewish parties have gained far more influence.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Ok, take the whole supply thing with a grain of salt, and of course this is speculation on my part.

But I expect that Hamas has stocked a great deal of food and water and essentials that they have taken from humanitarian efforts, and are not going to share this with Palestinians, They probably have a pretty big stock pile of ammunition, rockets etc.

They wouldn't have launched this attack without knowing that there would be a very large seige. To Hamas the ordinary Palestinian isn't important, its better if they starve or die, but its important that their members are fed and watered and able to fight and draw blood.

So yes, its likely that the ordinary citizen in Gaza is going to suffer. Hamas doesn't care. They're happy to see starving citizens or no access to medicines and essentials because they can use this to force yet another cease fire on the international stage.

Because if they didn't stockpile, then this plan makes no sense because of the drop in moral and the drop in the effectiveness of a building to building defense.

Now what might effect this is that Israel is dropping a lot of buildings that contained these stockpiles.

Just a guess.

I have my doubts that anything was stockpiled. Water consumption in particular was already low in Gaza before any of this happened. I've heard it said that the goal of Hamas was to draw other countries into the conflict. Easiest way to do that is to be very social media present with any suffering or casualties, and create a popular uprising using Islam as a crutch. Hamas doesn't really care about the people.

[Fuzzy14]

Educate me please.
So Palestinians are essentially cut off from supply routes and trapped. Supplies are already running low (apparently). Why would Hamas have put themselves in this position? Couldn’t they have seen this coming, or are they expecting help from other countries?

I listened to an interesting perspective yesterday regarding Hamas' reasoning. They were focused on the fact that Palestine and Hamas have been slowly slipping into irrelevance over the past few years. Their traditional allies are normalizing relations with their mortal enemy, seemingly abandoning them. The worlds entire focused has shifted away from the region to Ukraine and Russia; hell even attention on the "stans" is greatly reduced following the reconquest by the Taliban. Even issues regarding the Supreme Court of Israel are getting vastly more press than the situation in the occupied territories.

Arguably, Hamas decided that it needed to go big in order to get itself out of irrelevance and back to front page news.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by blankall

It's hard to say. Could be:

1. Hamas is out of touch with reality. They actually think they can win. They believe the fanatical rhetoric they spew about holy wars.
2. Hamas doesn't think things through.
3. Hamas is worried about their future and is desperately holding onto power.
4. Hamas has actually, in the past, garnered all sorts of sympathy from their tactics. Attack Israel until it reacts, hide your military infrastructure amongst civilians, depict Israel as the bad guy when your civilians eventually start to die. It's their game plan.
5. These has a lot to do with geopolitics and outside forcing influencing Hamas. The Russians are stirring up crap everywhere. The Russians and Iranians both dread an Israeli/Saudi peace deal, which, about a week ago, seemed imminent.

Probably a combination of the above.

I think they thought if they took enough hostages, it would bring Israel into negotiations and force them to use more restraint. I also don't think they think things through that much and it was about the hedonistic thrill of killing.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Educate me please.
So Palestinians are essentially cut off from supply routes and trapped. Supplies are already running low (apparently). Why would Hamas have put themselves in this position? Couldn’t they have seen this coming, or are they expecting help from other countries?

The most cogent reason I've read thus far is that the Middle East peace process Israel was negotiating with other Arab states was reducing support for a Palestinian state.

Basically they wanted to start a war, so the other Arab states would recoil from Israel.

https://theconversation.com/why-did-...to-gain-215248

Why attack now?

Significantly, Hamas has named its action “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”. This provides some clues to the primary reason for striking at this time, which emphasises what Hamas sees as Israeli acts of desecration of a holy Islamic site.

However, an additional motivating factor was likely the increasing tendency of Arab states to make peace agreements with Israel, as evidenced by the 2020 Abraham Accords, involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

There has recently been strong speculation that Saudi Arabia is about to make its own agreement with Israel.

This is of great concern to all Palestinians, not just those in the West Bank, as it further reduces pressure on Israel to reach a settlement with them. Netanyahu has made clear in his public statements that he prioritises peace with Arab states over eventual peace with the Palestinians.

Hamas does not recognise Israel, but has said it would observe a truce if Israel withdrew to its 1967 borders. Israel would be unlikely to take Hamas’s word on this and withdraw as demanded. But there would be even less chance of that condition ever being realised if Saudi Arabia were to conclude its own deal with Israel.