Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

The fact that houses are selling at much higher prices than assessed is a problem. Sure we don't want to pay more property taxes but the large discrepancy creates problems.

Not really though. If all houses are selling for more then nothing changes. If all assessments increased by 15% next year and the City budget remained the same the mill rate would just go down and everyone would pay the same taxes they are currently paying.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by StickMan

I think the housing problem is largely a combination of the fact that Trudeau is bringing in over 400,000 immigrants and we are only building 200,000 new homes.

As an immigrant myself, I would suggest we build more homes.

[flamesfever]

I think it would be prudent at this time to start limiting immigration. We are already flooded with the people we are helping from Ukraine or Afghanistan. This would ease the demand for housing, slow the economy, and reduce the pressure on the BOC to raise interest rates.

[StickMan]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

As an immigrant myself, I would suggest we build more homes.

"Thanks largely to immigration, Canada’s population is now growing at more than twice the pace of most developed economies. "

"The CMHC study estimates that Canada must build an additional 2.3 million homes between now and 2030, on top of what it is already building"

"Achieving the more ambitious target of restoring the affordability levels of 2003-04 would demand 3.5 million more homes than the business-as-usual scenario."

"The bottom line? Canada needs to at least double its current pace of home building to have a serious impact on affordability, according to Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist at CMHC."

How many houses does Canada actually need?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I think it would be prudent at this time to start limiting immigration. We are already flooded with the people we are helping from Ukraine or Afghanistan. This would ease the demand for housing, slow the economy, and reduce the pressure on the BOC to raise interest rates.

This is my problem.

I love the concept of immigration. I feel like we should be letting people in left, right and center.

We are the second largest Sovereign Landmass on this Earth and our population is laughably low.

However, I also acknowledge realities. We dont have anywhere for all of these people to live and we have to loosen our restrictions about allowing these immigrants to practice their professions when they get here.

You mention Ukrainians and Afghanis....but that was kind of supposed to be a temporary deal? People are letting them live in their houses sort of under the understanding that eventually they'd go home....

And thats not happening. Why? Because Canada is way better than wherever they came from.

But that doesnt change the reality that we literally do not have enough physical structures to house all of these people and we cannot build them fast enough in a manner that is generally affordable especially for people who arent certified in this country to practice their professions.

There is a lot that has to change to make this sustainable.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I think it would be prudent at this time to start limiting immigration. We are already flooded with the people we are helping from Ukraine or Afghanistan. This would ease the demand for housing, slow the economy, and reduce the pressure on the BOC to raise interest rates.

Something, something "That's racist." TM


/s

[StickMan]

Originally Posted by Locke

This is my problem.

I love the concept of immigration. I feel like we should be letting people in left, right and center.

We are the second largest Sovereign Landmass on this Earth and our population is laughably low.

However, I also acknowledge realities. We dont have anywhere for all of these people to live and we have to loosen our restrictions about allowing these immigrants to practice their professions when they get here.

You mention Ukrainians and Afghanis....but that was kind of supposed to be a temporary deal? People are letting them live in their houses sort of under the understanding that eventually they'd go home....

And thats not happening. Why? Because Canada is way better than wherever they came from.

But that doesnt change the reality that we literally do not have enough physical structures to house all of these people and we cannot build them fast enough in a manner that is generally affordable especially for people who arent certified in this country to practice their professions.

There is a lot that has to change to make this sustainable.

There are problems with relying on immigration to grow your population as opposed to natural population growth. Most immigrants fall between 25-54 years old, which doesn't bring down the average age like having babies does. It is also far less geographically distributed, most immigrants settle in Montreal/Vancouver/Toronto, so the population distribution gets all messed up. Some say mass immigration "erodes the culture" for example less French people in Quebec, and then considerations like immigrants care less about reconciliation, things like that.

I think slowing immigration 50% would go a long way towards solving our housing issues (and probably our lack of schools, healthcare, and everything else a growing population needs that we aren't keeping up with). I wonder how they came up with the current immigration number targets anyways?

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I think it would be prudent at this time to start limiting immigration. We are already flooded with the people we are helping from Ukraine or Afghanistan. This would ease the demand for housing, slow the economy, and reduce the pressure on the BOC to raise interest rates.

1. Canada already does limit immigration. The current limit may be too high in your view, but contrary to popular belief among certain right-wingers, we are not simply allowing just anyone who wants to relocate to Canada to live and work here. Immigrating to Canada is hard.

2. Like almost every other industrialized nation, Canada's birthrate is currently below replacement level (1.4 children per woman in 2020 where replacement level is 2.1 children per woman). Unless you genuinely want a long-term contraction to the economy followed by cutbacks to services that are paid for by working Canadians but primarily benefit older citizens and retirees like OAS, healthcare, and CPP, then Canada must augment its workforce via immigration in order to keep the economy growing at a healthy and manageable level. The alternative to this is to make having children a more attractive option for young Canadians through measures like substantially more affordable housing, student debt relief, and heavily subsidized daycare, but I somehow suspect you are personally opposed to all of those measures.

[flamesfever]

I believe it's a matter of priorities and timing. No doubt, we should do our part to take our share of immigrants in the long run. However, I believe the timing is not right. First, we have to get through the unstable economic situation we are presently in. Then when our fiscal and monetary elements get back to normal, and governments adopt policy that capitalizes on our strength as a country, we can get back to increasing our immigration in a reasonable manner.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Slava

That's the real issue here. People are in favour of affordable housing and reducing the cost of housing in theory. but, when their property is about to decline significantly, and maybe their no longer qualifying for financing or just burned a couple hundred grand they're not going to be thrilled.

Hey, if the government can bail out banks and businesses, I guess home owners are "too big to fail!"

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Locke

I dont really know what the Liberals can do to bring housing costs down.

The only thing I can think of off the top of my head would be to scrap the Carbon Tax entirely to try and bring the cost of materials and their transportation down...but even that is a faulty idea.

It wouldnt work.

So yeah, Libs, Cons the NDP would try and find money in the moon or something, but I dont see how the Government is really able to control the affordability of housing barring....and I've actually been something of a proponent of this....building it themselves.

Council Housing like the UK, communal housing like the USSR, Peachtrees like in Judge Dredd, etc.

Now, hear me out.

I think one of the critical elements of our housing issues is that we've essentially taken away 'the starter step.'

That first, affordable, step that allows people to climb the ladder of social mobility.

And we've replaced that step with 'live at home with your parents longer.'

The problem with that step isnt just that kids hang around longer than we want them to, but it creates vacuum years where they're not generating any equity of their own which will lead to them paying mortgages until much later years in life which will affect retirement, savings and their own kids by that point. Its a knock on effect.

So thats housing, as for Trudeau...not going to comment on his marriage, I dont know anything about it and thats his business, but I do wonder...

Has any 'Chief of State' be it a PM, or a President gone through something like this while sitting in office? I feel like this is unusual but maybe I just dont know.

Either way, I dont think it reflects on him in any meaningful way.

I don't know that anyone has gotten rid of the starter step except buyers who want their dream home right out of University. It's increased expectation.

People can rent a place together, but no, i want my own place for $1500 a month. My niece is 20 and sharing a $700 basement in Coral Springs with 2 other girls, so she can save money.

And then for their first house, they want to be in the inner city, infills which are super expensive. There are condos for less than $300K still, that could be a starting point and then get your dream house once you are married and have kids at 30+.

And we're not talking in the hood in the NE, here is Regent Gardens in the SW (Glenbrook - 45th and Richmond)
Could that not be a starter house for someone single or a young couple at $215K? Your mortgage would be less than current downtown rent!

https://www.remaxcentral.ab.ca/calga...t-gardens.html

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Whether you like him or not, Trudeau is being honest when he says that housing costs are largely outside the jurisdiction of the federal government. No government, Liberal, Conservative, or NDP can solve this issue at the federal level.

I linked this just a few posts prior.

https://www2.liberal.ca/wp-content/u...ddle-class.pdf

A Place to Call Home
We will make it easier for more people to buy
their first home.
For many young people starting their careers,
saving up enough to make a down payment on
a home is a far-off dream – and for ten years,
Stephen Harper’s Conservatives did nothing to
address this growing problem.

To help more people buy their first home, we will
move forward with the new First-Time Home Buyer
Incentive, which gives people up to 10 per cent off
the purchase price of their first home. We will also
increase the qualifying value to nearly $800,000
in the places where houses cost more – like the
greater Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria regions. As
market dynamics change in different regions, the
program will be adjusted to reflect those realities.
To limit the housing speculation that can drive up
home prices, we will also put in place a consistent
national tax on vacant residential properties owned
by non-Canadians who don’t live in Canada.

Trudeau sure seemed to think he could alleviate this in 2019 and still blamed Harper for past policies 4 years in his tenure. If he is honest today, he was not honest in the past.

And it's obvious that increasing demand for housing through such programs as the new first time home buyer incentive would make housing cost even higher. Increased immigration is also a significant factor in pressure on supply

Housing has been a bad thorn in the Liberal side recently, and right now with interest rates skyrocketing and a major housing crisis in place, Trudeau is shifting away from promises on housing.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by calculoso

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone actively create a narrative of wishing harm to their own country

You can see the same thing in the Alberta politics thread. Some people hate the governing party of their province/country so much that they want the people who voted them in to suffer. I suppose they hope it will make the voters realize what a mistake they made.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

You can see the same thing in the Alberta politics thread. Some people hate the governing party of their province/country so much that they want the people who voted them in to suffer. I suppose they hope it will make the voters realize what a mistake they made.

You mean that actions have consequences? Ya, it sure would be nice if people realized that.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by timun

I think the Liberals' failure to address housing affordability in any measurable way is going to be what ultimately sinks Trudeau. It's insanely expensive to find a place to live in this country, and real estate itself is at this point a giant Ponzi scheme that sucks a preposterously disproportionate amount of capital from our economy. The underlying fundamentals make no sense whatsoever. It's a generational issue that started about 20 years ago, but the complete and utter failure to act now and at any time in the last eight years is just... bafflingly stupid.

My elderly neighbour's family recently moved her into a nursing home and put her house on the market for $650,000. It was gone in less than a month. The house three doors down from me went up on the market this week: they want about $750,000, for what is frankly very much a fixer-upper. Three years ago they would have been lucky to get $550,000 for them; eight years ago perhaps $450,000. It's nucking futs out there.

Canadian housing is a modern-day "tulip mania" that cannot possibly do anything but burst, hard.

I’m not sure our political and business leaders and institutions like the BoC and government regulators really understand how badly the housing crisis is undermining their legitimacy. A lot of Canadians are not very politically engaged. But everyone notices when the cost of putting a roof over their heads climbs relentlessly past the point of affordability. Canada’s institutional complacency and inability to address the crisis is a gift to populist of various stripes. Those who lead our institutions will have only themselves to blame if public trust in Canada plummets further, and Canadian politics becomes as turbulent as they are in the U.S., France, and elsewhere in the West.

Canada has historically been a placid harbour by global standards. A safe bet. And to a large degree that’s because the people who run our institutions have been far-sighted, prudent, and competent. But the’ve been asleep at the switch for 15+ years now when it comes to housing.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You mean that actions have consequences? Ya, it sure would be nice if people realized that.

I know I sure realized it in 2015.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If it wasn't undervalued, why invest? Are we just rising to where we should be, rather than it being a bubble?

Because Canada is a prosperous, stable, peaceful country with a strong rule of law and property rights. It’s about as safe a harbour as you can find for someone looking to park their money. It also has a very low barrier to foreign investment. Then add in the sustained boom in the Golden Horseshoe and the Lower Mainland, and Canadian real estate becomes almost a no-brainer as an investment.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Whether you like him or not, Trudeau is being honest when he says that housing costs are largely outside the jurisdiction of the federal government. No government, Liberal, Conservative, or NDP can solve this issue at the federal level.

These are the concrete actions that would have a real and discernable effect in making housing more affordable:

- Significantly increase housing supply
- Increase density of housing developments
- Add more subsidized public housing
- Reduce the number of low-density single-family homes being approved and increase multi-family options (high rise condos, town houses, midrise apartment buildings, etc.)
- Solve the "missing middle" problem
- Ban short-term rental homes (i.e. AirBnB) or have punitively high property taxes for these types of non-resident housing to make them non-viable as money-making schemes

Each of these options fall under the jurisdiction of local municipal governments, not the feds. And all of them would be bitterly opposed by home-owning boomers because it would reduce the value of their most important asset ("F you got mine"). It would be political suicide for a local mayor and council to enact these policies on a scale that would result in any meaningful change in housing affordability for younger Canadians. So instead we get inadequate half-measures like making borrowing money for a mortgage easier which only results in housing prices being inflated even further.

Those are all factors. But if we’re actually going to address the issue, we have to stop pretending that historically unprecedented immigration rates and 600k+ overseas students a year needing housing have no impact on housing affordability. The federal government doesn’t have a huge amount of control over housing supply, but it plays a big role in housing demand.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Slava

Sure, but it's not only in that case. People borrow against the equity to start businesses all the time.

Maybe that’s something that needs to change. Maybe people need to recognize that if we treat our home like an investment to leverage, our kids won’t be able to afford to buy their own home without $100k+ from the bank of mom and dad.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Those are all factors. But if we’re actually going to address the issue, we have to stop pretending that historically unprecedented immigration rates and 600k+ overseas students a year needing housing have no impact on housing affordability. The federal government doesn’t have a huge amount of control over housing supply, but it plays a big role in housing demand.

This is falsely scapegoating immigrants (and/or federal government immigration policy) for a problem that they are not causing. Canada's overall rate of population growth is currently at an all-time historical low, even with immigration levels being where they are now. Young Canadian couples are having fewer children than parents in previous generations did, and the number of immigrants we're brining in aren't even making up for that difference.