It doesn’t really matter if they declare war. They don’t have the equipment to arm them properly or the NCOs to train them properly. I’m sure thousand of grunts with AK-47s and some T-55s are really going to be scary. It’s not like mobilizing or declaring war means they suddenly conjure planes, drones, advanced artillery systems, advanced munitions, electronics, etc out of thin air. They’re already been using those fully and well they’re kinda running out. This is what happens when your country lacks the tech base to create electronics/circuits/boards.
Last edited by Kasi; 09-16-2022 at 09:17 AM.
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It doesn’t really matter if they declare war. They don’t have the equipment to arm them properly. I’m sure thousand of grunts with AK-47s and some T-55s are really going to be scary. It’s not like mobilizing or declaring war means they suddenly conjure planes, drones, advanced artillery systems, advanced munitions, electronics, etc out of thin air. They’re already been using those fully and well they’re kinda running out. This is what happens when your country lacks the tech base to create electronics/circuits/boards.
It may make no difference on the battle field, but it absolutely makes whole lot of difference for Russian population. For instance, I would no longer be allowed to leave Russia.
Good thread from a couple of days ago. Basically the radicals (20% of the pop ) wants war and to win. But the majority (60%) are laymen who are apolitical and just don’t want anything that rocks their boat. That seems to describe Pointman here. If they go and declare war then those 60% get affected and get pissed off. So Putin is trying to walk a line where they put out enough rhetoric to stir up the radicals but don’t actually do anything to not affect the Laymen. Which means any significant change in Ukraine is unlikely to happen.
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What does this even mean? Are you trying to suggest that Putin has been holding back prior to this?
I think Ukraine takes back Crimea no matter what Putin does. From Ukraine's perspective that is Ukrainian territory that was occupied unlawfully in 2014, no?
Get all your good equipment smashed, then declare war. Oh man, Ukraine is in for it now!
Wife and I watched this documentary (in Russian but has English subs). It's about some women from UA who now live in various places in the EU after being forced from their homes. How their lives were before the invasion on Feb 24, how they were able to escape, and how their lives are now.
A lot has been said about the grand scale of the war, but always good to be aware of what happens from a civilian's perspective. Some horrible footage of civilian infrastructure being targeted and is a sobering reminder of the brutality of the Russians and why the Western foot must never be taken off their throat. Particularly disturbing is how these women feared being raped by Russians soldiers using their dicks as weapons and what they did to prevent/prepare for it. Also shows the stress of not knowing if the next sound you hear is a missile headed your way. Heartbreaking stuff to watch, but also reinvigorated us to never give up fighting the invading force.
Some brutal scenes from Kharkiv, where I personally have been many times and my wife's home city. Seeing places I have stood, eaten and walked around being destroyed was infuriating. Wife can relate to how these women feel and it was very emotional for her watching this.
Recommend watching this if you want to see some refugee's perspective.
This was absolutely heartbreaking. Thanks for the share.
India PM basically told Putin to stop the war. Xi the other day pretty much said the same. If Russia doesn’t want to lose control of their Asian protectorates they need to get out of Ukraine. We’re seeing war spring up between ex Russia states and Russia telling them don’t do that isn’t working. Those counties just don’t fear Russias military right now. Considering India and China are the only two big powers nominally on their side they’re going to have to listen to them or just be isolated even more and fall into being a backwater regional power.
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The site, which police said contained 445 graves, was discovered after a rapid counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces retook the northeastern city and much of the Kharkiv region, breaking what had largely become a stalemate in the nearly seven-month war. Ukrainian officials said they have also found evidence that people were tortured during the Russian occupation of the area.
As the first bodies began to be pulled from the ground, the head of the Kharkiv prosecutor's office, Oleksandr Filchakov, said some had their hands tied behind their back and ropes around their necks
Yeah I'm torn between anger and lack of surprise.
__________________
Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
Corporal Jean-Marc H. BECHARD, 6 Aug 1993
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A major problem for Russia is that if they start a massive conscription drive that will deplete their worker force at home. Russia is not only facing a shortage of troops but a shortage of production and general labour. They need people at home producing both military equipment/supplies and basic goods.
On top of diverting their workforce away from actually working and towards the military, hundreds of thousands of working age Russians are also leaving the country.
India PM basically told Putin to stop the war. Xi the other day pretty much said the same. If Russia doesn’t want to lose control of their Asian protectorates they need to get out of Ukraine. We’re seeing war spring up between ex Russia states and Russia telling them don’t do that isn’t working. Those counties just don’t fear Russias military right now. Considering India and China are the only two big powers nominally on their side they’re going to have to listen to them or just be isolated even more and fall into being a backwater regional power.
I think saying India and China are even nominally on Russia's side is a bit of a stretch. Nothing that they're doing is done to benefit Russian interests, they're on their own sides.
India for example is blatantly taking advantage of Russia's weak position, as they're buying Russian oil at a really significant discount compared to market prices. They're then refining it locally and selling it to the west as "Indian", or sometimes just relabeling it. Well, the last part is "alleged", but the evidence seems compelling that this is what's going on. In any case, getting tons of oil under the global market price is a great deal for India. Just basic war profiteering really.
China similarly is making very nice profits off of Russia. They also just don't want to do what the US tells them to do.
Putin calling for mobilization would be suicide. It's not happening.
They have done everything they can to avoid a full mobilization. From pillaging prisons to scamming the poor, they are doing what is been termed crypto-mobilization.
Should they ever declare full mobilization and Russians from Moscow and St Petersburg have to join the war is when the propaganda wall that is holding this house of cards up will fall apart.
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I think saying India and China are even nominally on Russia's side is a bit of a stretch. Nothing that they're doing is done to benefit Russian interests, they're on their own sides.
India for example is blatantly taking advantage of Russia's weak position, as they're buying Russian oil at a really significant discount compared to market prices. They're then refining it locally and selling it to the west as "Indian", or sometimes just relabeling it. Well, the last part is "alleged", but the evidence seems compelling that this is what's going on. In any case, getting tons of oil under the global market price is a great deal for India. Just basic war profiteering really.
China similarly is making very nice profits off of Russia. They also just don't want to do what the US tells them to do.
The whole "sides" thing, in the context of nation states, is pretty absurd. When it come to larger moves, every nation does what's in their best interest. Nations are the cumulative sum of many interests and their actions express that.
Particularly, countries like Russia having "friends", they have allies who are only allies as long as their interests align with Russia.
The whole "sides" thing, in the context of nation states, is pretty absurd. When it come to larger moves, every nation does what's in their best interest.* Nations are the cumulative sum of many interests and their actions express that.
Particularly, countries like Russia having "friends", they have allies who are only allies as long as their interests align with Russia.
* except Canada
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The whole "sides" thing, in the context of nation states, is pretty absurd. When it come to larger moves, every nation does what's in their best interest. Nations are the cumulative sum of many interests and their actions express that.
Particularly, countries like Russia having "friends", they have allies who are only allies as long as their interests align with Russia.
I think that's reductionist. Countries can sometimes do quite a lot that's not really in their direct interest, but more importantly, there are times when countries decide to very definitely take sides.
India isn't taking Russia's side when it's buying discount Russian oil, but when Poland is sending Ukraine really significant portions of their own military hardware for free, that to me is taking a side. When neighboring countries fix Ukrainian military equipment for free, that's taking a side.
Sure, you can say that they're on Ukraine's side because their interests are deeply tied with Ukrainian interest, but that doesn't really change much.
Indian and Chinese interests aren't particularly tied to Russian interests.
Public opinion also matters hell of a lot in this stuff, and public opinion cares very little about national interest. If you want to be supercynical, you could argue European politicians are supporting Ukraine because that happens to be a very popular thing to do almost everywhere in Europe, but the politicians aren't any more "the country" than the people.
I think that's reductionist. Countries can sometimes do quite a lot that's not really in their direct interest, but more importantly, there are times when countries decide to very definitely take sides.
India isn't taking Russia's side when it's buying discount Russian oil, but when Poland is sending Ukraine really significant portions of their own military hardware for free, that to me is taking a side. When neighboring countries fix Ukrainian military equipment for free, that's taking a side.
Sure, you can say that they're on Ukraine's side because their interests are deeply tied with Ukrainian interest, but that doesn't really change much.
Indian and Chinese interests aren't particularly tied to Russian interests.
Public opinion also matters hell of a lot in this stuff, and public opinion cares very little about national interest. If you want to be supercynical, you could argue European politicians are supporting Ukraine because that happens to be a very popular thing to do almost everywhere in Europe, but the politicians aren't any more "the country" than the people.
I'm obviously oversimplifying.
Even then, I'd say that countries act in alliances typically when it's in their best interests. Is it in Germany's best interest to stop buying Russian gas? No. However, in the larger picture, it's an awful idea to facilitate Russian acquisition of Ukraine and it's best to maintain a strong alliance (militarily and economically) with the rest of NATO.
I would also define "best interest" to include the will of the people living under the state, particularly in places where voters can remove the people running the state somewhat easily.
The whole "sides" thing, in the context of nation states, is pretty absurd. When it come to larger moves, every nation does what's in their best interest. Nations are the cumulative sum of many interests and their actions express that.
Particularly, countries like Russia having "friends", they have allies who are only allies as long as their interests align with Russia.
A major problem for Russia is that if they start a massive conscription drive that will deplete their worker force at home. Russia is not only facing a shortage of troops but a shortage of production and general labour. They need people at home producing both military equipment/supplies and basic goods.
On top of diverting their workforce away from actually working and towards the military, hundreds of thousands of working age Russians are also leaving the country.
Wagner group is now recruiting from Russian prisons. Prisoners will get their get out jail card free and their crimes forgiven after 6 months of duty as mercenaries. Insanity.
Wagner group is now recruiting from Russian prisons. Prisoners will get their get out jail card free and their crimes forgiven after 6 months of duty as mercenaries. Insanity.
A. I doubt Wagner holds true to their word.
B. They'll get lit up by combat tested Ukrainian military.
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