Israel declares war on Hamas

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

Civilian deaths as a percentage of total deaths in this war are not out of line with other conflicts:

WWII - 60-70% civilians
Korea - 75% civilians
Vietnam - 67% civilians
Chechnya - 87% civilians
NATO in Yugoslavia - 50% civilians
NATO in Afghanistan - 28% civilians
IRAQ II - 33% civilians
Battle of Mosul vs ISIS (probably the most similar) - ~50% civilians

For the Hamas attack on Oct 7 - 67% civilians (plus unknown hostage deaths)

For the Israeli counterattack in Gaza:
Hamas' estimate - 67%-100% civilians
Israel's estimate - 50% civilians
US estimate - 60% civilians

Most of the non-Gaza conflicts had units fighting away from civilian centers, which is not the case here.

Because Hamas embeds themselves amongst civilians (a war crime) and launches attacks from those embedded positions (another war crime), at least some part of the civilian death toll is a result of those war crimes. Some of these Hamas-attributable Palestinian civilian deaths are direct (such as a rocket falling short on your own side) and some are indirect (fighting from an apartment block, for instance, which invites inevitable counterattack).

I don't see it as a genocide, just an inevitable result of urban warfare.

You're arguing the intent aspect of the commonly accepted definition of genocide. I can at least respect that, rather than the nonsensical claims that Palestinians are just Jordanians and therefore can't be genocided, or equally as bad, they deserve the genocide because they support Hamas, therefore it's not genocide.

I think where your argument falls apart, is the intent is fairly clear cut, including statements from high level Israeli officials, particularly early on in the war. There's obviously the now infamous Amalek and human animals statements, however, a European NGO has put together a running list of comments by Israeli officials that can be equally as damning.
https://law4palestine.org/law-for-pa...ously-updated/

Some of those instances are fairly tame, admittedly, however there are some horrific things in there that show clear intent to destroy the Palestinian population in Gaza.

Further to this, the destruction of all universities, hospitals, using starvation as a weapon of war and numerous other instances only make sense if Israel's main goal is ethnic cleansing, rather than the defeat of Hamas.

[Bownesian]

I don't think Israel's hands are totally clean here - mistakes always happen, and there are always bad actors on all sides of all wars. Any individual soldier can make a wrong decision intentionally or unintentionally in a war situation, and it happens in every war. Some sides investigate and prosecute those bad actors, while others celebrate them.

Governments can have dirty hands as well (Hamas, choosing to imbed in a population, Russia in Chechnya, or the US government using Agent Orange).

I would argue that Israel does in fact have the firepower to push that civilian death ratio well into the high 90% range if they actually wanted a genocide. They have tanks on the margins of tent encampments and could easily wipe them out if they chose to. They do not.

I would also argue that Hamas' goals are actually genocidal. They seek the elimination of the Jewish state and its replacement with an Islamic one. They seek this through the destruction and displacement of Israel's people, and through demographic replacement via the "right of return".

In my view, Israel could commit genocide, but does not; Hamas cannot commit genocide, but would if they could.

[Skootenbeeten]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do I really have to spell it out for you? Fine, just this once. Treating people like ####, taking their land, blockading their territory, and every decade or so bombing their homes into the stone age leads to and endless cycle of creating anger and terrorists. Is it any wonder this is happening right now? Is it any wonder they are creating the next round of pissed of people to attack them? But ya, sure. Keep up doing the same things over and over, and be sure to bitch to the world when the same ####ing things happen again and again, and then roll over in victimhood to justify killing more innocents, settling on their land(West Bank, just to avoid where your brain is already going), and perpetuating the cycle again and again.


And I'm the dumb one?

Oh boy you sure are.


Nice to see you come out and say it, you are justifying Oct 7th by saying "same land was taken". You think it's ok to slaughter women and children over a land dispute. And since Jews have lived on that land for thousands of years before Islam was ever created I guess all of that land really is theirs by your ruling.You're right the cycle keeps going, Palestine attacks, Israel defends itself and tries to wipe out the attacking force and then a ceasefire happens and palestine plans its next attack. That's the cycle but that's what happens when a organization like ISIS err I mean Hamas is allowed to survive.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

I don't think Israel's hands are totally clean here - mistakes always happen, and there are always bad actors on all sides of all wars. Any individual soldier can make a wrong decision intentionally or unintentionally in a war situation, and it happens in every war. Some sides investigate and prosecute those bad actors, while others celebrate them.

Governments can have dirty hands as well (Hamas, choosing to imbed in a population, Russia in Chechnya, or the US government using Agent Orange).

I would argue that Israel does in fact have the firepower to push that civilian death ratio well into the high 90% range if they actually wanted a genocide. They have tanks on the margins of tent encampments and could easily wipe them out if they chose to. They do not.

I would also argue that Hamas' goals are actually genocidal. They seek the elimination of the Jewish state and its replacement with an Islamic one. They seek this through the destruction and displacement of Israel's people, and through demographic replacement via the "right of return".

In my view, Israel could commit genocide, but does not; Hamas cannot commit genocide, but would if they could.

This argument is always bull####. "They could be doing a lot worse so its not genocide"... No, that's not an argument. They are not doing a lot worse because they are towing a fine line between getting international condemned and maintaining US military support.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Skootenbeeten

Oh boy you sure are.


Nice to see you come out and say it, you are justifying Oct 7th by saying "same land was taken". You think it's ok to slaughter women and children over a land dispute. And since Jews have lived on that land for thousands of years before Islam was ever created I guess all of that land really is theirs by your ruling.You're right the cycle keeps going, Palestine attacks, Israel defends itself and tries to wipe out the attacking force and then a ceasefire happens and palestine plans its next attack. That's the cycle but that's what happens when a organization like ISIS err I mean Hamas is allowed to survive.

I'm not justifying anything, I'm saying "this is why it happened, and this is why it will continue to happen." Israel's choices, while often not easy or black and white, regularly land on the side of contributing to the unending cycle. They are doing it again. So when you see young children joining in on the hate, and your reaction is "I wanna play too!", that's where you missed another chance at working out the "why". But hey, if you want to see more Israeli's kidnapped in the future, keep cheering for what they are doing now, because they are making it an inevitability.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

So what’s your number?


God willing (any god) I will never sober up!

Asking about how many people you think are ok to be murdered speaks volumes.

[afc wimbledon]

The problem for Israel is there is no pathway that stops them being attacked, they could do everything asked, withdraw to the pre '67 lines and they would still be attacked, just a bit less.

The problem for Gaza is there is no solution that gives them their Grandparents land back, Gaza is made up of the descendants of refugees from pre 1967, there is no plan by either side that ever sees them getting back what they consider historically theirs.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Leondros

This argument is always bull####. "They could be doing a lot worse so its not genocide"... No, that's not an argument. They are not doing a lot worse because they are towing a fine line between getting international condemned and maintaining US military support.

Agree to disagree I guess.

As an observer with no personal attachment to either side, I see a modern army making a reasonable effort to move civilians away from the fighting while their opponent has used vast resources to make sure any fighting happens where their own civilians will be killed.

Like I said, people commit unintentional and intentional crimes in every war, including individual Israelis in this one. I just don't see an intentional systematic extermination or permanent displacement at the nation level, which fits the intent of the term Genocide.

I expect the ICC will eventually agree and will say that while there were individual crimes against humanity (as in just about every war), it was not systemic on Israel's part.

I am also hopeful that either Hamas capitulates quickly (best), or is destroyed quickly (worse because they will get a lot of civilians killed in the process), because those are the only routes to peace now.

War is hell, which is why it's not a good idea to start one.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

Agree to disagree I guess.

As an observer with no personal attachment to either side, I see a modern army making a reasonable effort to move civilians away from the fighting while their opponent has used vast resources to make sure any fighting happens where their own civilians will be killed.

Like I said, people commit unintentional and intentional crimes in every war, including individual Israelis in this one. I just don't see an intentional systematic extermination or permanent displacement at the nation level, which fits the intent of the term Genocide.

I expect the ICC will eventually agree and will say that while there were individual crimes against humanity (as in just about every war), it was not systemic on Israel's part.

I am also hopeful that either Hamas capitulates quickly (best), or is destroyed quickly (worse because they will get a lot of civilians killed in the process), because those are the only routes to peace now.

War is hell, which is why it's not a good idea to start one.

Why do you expect that the complete elimination of Hamas will not lead to another similar group arising from the ashes, fueled by the hatred of children who had their parents killed and their homes and lands decimated?

[Bownesian]

I have to be hopeful that something better will come from all this death. This is different than previous wars in Gaza, so I hope its aftermath will be different.

My first post in this thread was about the changes that happened in Germany and Japan after WWII - demilitarization, external security, a change in government and constitution, rebuilding, reeducation, and a peace dividend that arises from all of that. This is my hope.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Why do you expect that the complete elimination of Hamas will not lead to another similar group arising from the ashes, fueled by the hatred of children who had their parents killed and their homes and lands decimated?

Historically if you absolutely destroy the other side you can end resistance, Germany and Japan in 1945 come to mind, it's brutal but it does work, it pretty much requires killing or capturing all the men though

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

This thread is wild.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.

This thread is wild.

The truth is there is no solution, eventually this act of a war that has been going on since 1948 will peter out, things will calm down for 10 or 15 years and then flair up again

[Fuzz]

This isn't Germany or Japan, though. Hamas isn't "the head". It's religion, which you can not kill with bombs. They do not care for their own lives, and deaths of their people is a victory as long as it continues the hatred. Their is no accepting that their religion is not the one that will be victorious, because God is on their side. So their will be no comprise for long lasting peace, only a regrouping. You can't use WWII as guidance for this to end. It won't. Neither will endlessly accidentally killing innocent people because they are in a refugee camp next to the evil. So stop it. Ugh.

[Bownesian]

Historically, this is not true.

The European wars of religion tore that continent apart for 2 centuries, and a peace was reached. Other motivations for wars remained for the next 150 years, and a peace was reached.

There are no more Crusades or expansionist Islamic Caliphate in Europe because they respectively reached their culminations and a peace was reached.

Jordan and Egypt were at war with Israel over religion (among other motivations), and a peace was reached.

Peacemaking is hard because you do it with your enemies.

[Bill Bumface]

You guys just need to face the reality that there will be no peace until one entire side is wiped out. Just like in Northern Ireland. Oh wait. Record scratch - maybe bombing a people into absolute submission isn't the only way?

It'd also be great if people stopped replying to Skootenbeeten. When someone makes no attempt at an open mind or discussing in good faith, it just pollutes the thread. We've seen examples with Benhino and _Q_ of what good faith looks like, and more of that will make this thing actually worth continuing to read.

[afc wimbledon]

nm

[blankall]

The way forward is a stable two state solution. That's the only way forward. That can't happen if outside forces are sending Hamas, an organization devoted to stopping a two-state solution, billions of dollars, unlimited weapons, and a dream of victorious religious war.

The current path has Israel continuing to grow in size and power and the Palestinians continually ramming themselves up into Israel's meat grinder.

I do think Israel needs to make a lot of changes, but I also don't think they can let their guard down for a moment with Hamas on the doorstep. I also don't think Israel has an obligation to be perpetually only reacting.

Despite his notion that Hamas is an idea that can never be killed, Hamas is actually a network of experienced war mongers who's organization relies on a few individuals with external contacts and specified knowledge. The average Hamas militant is a bumbling thug. Only with outside direction and supplies do they become dangerous. Hamas' current infrastructure took 20 years and billions of dollars to build. A surviving idea isn't going to replenish Hamas' generals, tunnels, training, rocket infrastructure, cash reserves, etc..

[afc wimbledon]

To be clear there are wars that can and have been settled without one or other side being utterly slaughtered, it's just this isn't one of them for a couple of reasons, first religion, religious conflicts tend to be utterly barbaric.

Secondly, and far more importantly, outside influence (which has shades of the first built in) Hamas and Palestinians from the beginning have been used as proxies in a larger conflict, initially the West Versus Communism/anti colonialism and more lately the Shia Sunni conflict along with Islam versus the west, Palestinians lost almost everything because Syria Egypt and Jordan started and lost 3 wars on their behalf and kept telling them they would support their struggle, that support has now been replaced by Iran, it has enabled both the PLO and Hamas leadership to live in comfort away from the fight while paying for their ground forces to both pay for and dominate the West Bank and Gaza, this has basically cost the Palestinians everything while at the same time kept an unwinnable conflict going

[afc wimbledon]

I will add that the other reason this conflict is intractable is because any solution requires one side or the other to give up what they consider their land, their homes, in Northern Ireland Catholics and Protestants were fighting over who had political control over the province, neither population expected nor wanted the other to leave (although some Protestants were scared of what their lives would look like under republican control), the conflict in N Ireland was not existential for either side, nor was it in truth particularly religious, it was mostly about economic fairness/parity for the Catholic minority more akin to the civil rights movement in the US