American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by photon

Josh Shapiro (D) elected governor in Pennsylvania according to the Decision Desk. I saw a speech of his earlier and I thought he was quite good.

I'm still curious to see how Fetterman/Oz turns out but seeing thus result, selfishly, was a giant sigh of relief as a PA resident.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by nik-

Uhh, that's exactly what they'll do. And it will work. It's what they always do.

With their base, yes. With the independent voters, no. That's the tale of the mid-term swing. It can be fleeting if you don't get stuff done. Republicans will have to perform if they take both chambers. If they don't, they will be the ones having to explain why they got nothing done, especially at a time when they are being counted on to make things better. Tax cuts and deregulation are not good strategies for escalating inflation. Republicans will have to bring some real ideas, which means expect a war someplace.

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by photon

Josh Shapiro (D) elected governor in Pennsylvania according to the Decision Desk. I saw a speech of his earlier and I thought he was quite good.

I'm still curious to see how Fetterman/Oz turns out but seeing this result, selfishly, was a giant sigh of relief as a PA resident.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Walker getting precariously close to 50%

That is disturbing.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Been following this guy quite a bit the last week or so. He's been pretty adamant that the Dems won't lose the Senate and could retain the house, too. He's either going to make a lot of money as a special correspondent in 2024 or be the subject of immense ridicule. Either way, I'm herd for the entertainment.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1590185536744214533

Once again proving that people don’t understand probabilistic forecasts.

Like a 60% chance or a 75% chance is not certainty.

Anyone claiming certainty is far more wrong even if the results are right.

[Mathgod]

Warnock suddenly shrinking Walker's lead!

[Ferarri]

Sorry just tuned in. How are the dems doing?

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by wittynickname

I'm still curious to see how Fetterman/Oz turns out but seeing thus result, selfishly, was a giant sigh of relief as a PA resident.

PA, I think Philly in particular, seems to do a really awful job of counting votes. They take forever to figure things out.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Ferarri

Sorry just tuned in. How are the dems doing?

Clinging to a chance to retain the Senate with their fingernails.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Dems are basically down to hoping for a runoff in Georgia, which would be hilarious that for the second election in a row that will be what decides control.

[Mathgod]

Mehmet rapidly making gains against Fetterman, unfortunately.

[PeteMoss]

Somewhat interesting - the people in Georgia who Trump went after hard after the election - Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger - are both coming in at a much higher percentage than Walker.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Walker getting precariously close to 50%

It's not a red wave that some predicted but Walker getting 50% would be a disaster for Democrats.

Also, can we officially say Florida is no longer a purple state? It's as red as can be.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Also, can we officially say Florida is no longer a purple state? It's as red as can be.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It's not a red wave that some predicted but Walker getting 50% would be a disaster for Democrats.

How so?

[Senator Clay Davis]

DeSantis performance in Florida is gonna make it very interesting to see if he'll actually challenge Trump. My initial thought months ago was he had no shot to overcome the cult, but this performance suggests maybe he does. But there's still incredible risk, if he's wrong and he loses his political career is likely done.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GGG

Once again proving that people don’t understand probabilistic forecasts.



Like a 60% chance or a 75% chance is not certainty.



Anyone claiming certainty is far more wrong even if the results are right.

I would do a deeper dive into the dude's profile. He has been saying there's been too much noise in the polls and they're not accurate this time because of it.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

How so?

The big loss is losing committee chairs and control of the floor but with Manchun blocking anyways losing the senate might be good for presidential hopes.

[Mathgod]

Looks like Oz will survive to see a runoff, unfortunately. Both Georgia and Pennsylvania very likely heading to runoffs.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I would do a deeper dive into the dude's profile. He has been saying there's been too much noise in the polls and they're not accurate this time because of it.

But “the polls” appear reasonably accurate right now given the results coming in.