Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I agree with you, but this point about his health may be debatable given how he seemed to be allowed to keep playing for ages when apparently in pretty bad shape. Monahan of 2022 may not have been Monahan of 2022 had he been forced to take the time on IR and medical attention earlier on.

I have no doubt that there are people who will complain and blame the Flames for ruining Sean Monahan, because some people here live in a fantasy world in which every variable is both predictable and controllable.

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[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I have no doubt that there are people who will complain and blame the Flames for ruining Sean Monahan, because some people here live in a fantasy world in which every variable is both predictable and controllable.

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Yep, and this goes back to the luck discussion.

As a GM you are going make moves that range from great to terrible. You have to make it so that the good to great outweighs the bad to terrible, and you also need some luck along the way.

Imagine last years 111 point Flames team with the 2015-2019 pre injury version of Monahan...

[Hockey_Ninja]

Yeesh now people are taking jabs at Monny’s contract? That signing was a steal before his body started breaking down

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

Ah, but who knows what perils lurk in a cup of coffee?

Great, now coffee is off the table! Can this get any worse!!? For the love of God why did I ignore those rumours?! I am in great peril!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I was skeptical until Fitzgerald said they were close to moving the pick right up until the selection. Yes, it is fascinating to watch all of this unfold. Much of it predictable.

Here's the thing with rumours: they grow and change with every retelling as the gaps and ambiguities are filled in by overactive imaginations. For all we know, Treliving made the offer to NJ, who declined. For all we know there were other pieces included in an offer that were unpalatable to one side or the other. But hell, we don't even know that the Flames were involved in this, how far any talks went, or even if they happened at all. It's a rumour.

Relax, Lanny. Your hair is not actually on fire.

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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I have always considered the addition of the last year at about half AAV about equal.

So, 7 years at $12M ($84M) should be equal to about 8 years at $11.25M (90M).

This is based on a guess that in that 8th year Johnny should be able to get about $6M.

I’ve made this point to someone else but if you think he can get 6m in the year after a 7 year deal isn’t he almost as likely to get that after an 8 year contract as well?

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Here's the thing with rumours: they grow and change with every retelling as the gaps and ambiguities are filled in by overactive imaginations. For all we know, Treliving made the offer to NJ, who declined. For all we know there were other pieces included in an offer that were unpalatable to 0ne side or the other. But hell, we don't even know that the Flames were involved in this, how far any talks went, or even if they happened at all. It's a rumour.

Relax, Lanny. Your hair is not actually on fire.

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Nah.

The Flames were offered 2nd overall, Holtz, Mercer, Zacha, Smith and Jersey's 2023 1st for Tkachuk but declined.

Treliving should be fired immediately

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yep, and this goes back to the luck discussion.

As a GM you are going make moves that range from great to terrible. You have to make it so that the good to great outweighs the bad to terrible, and you also need some luck along the way.

Imagine last years 111 point Flames team with the 2015-2019 pre injury version of Monahan...

The longer I am a hockey fan, the more I become aware of just how much luck factors into winning and losing. I think it has actually helped me to deal with the emotional stress, and makes the entire experience just that much more enjoyable.

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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Nah.



The Flames were offered 2nd overall, Holtz, Mercer, Zacha, Smith and Jersey's 2023 1st for Tkachuk but declined.



Treliving should be fired immediately

This sounds much more believable.

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[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’ve made this point to someone else but if you think he can get 6m in the year after a 7 year deal isn’t he almost as likely to get that after an 8 year contract as well?

But considering the max you can sign for is 8 years, that doesn’t really matter. The question is about what the 8th year is doing for the player.

[SuperMatt18]

Gaudreau will be 36 (7 year deal) or 37 (8 year deal) when this current contract expires.

He needs to look at this as his retirement contract.

I can’t think of many players signing for $5M+ at age 36 or older in recent history.

Ovechkin, Letang, and Pavelski are the only 35+ contracts in the entire NHL over $5M this season. There are only 17 players on 35+ contracts in the entire league.

It’s likely that the league gets even younger over the next 8 years too and Gaudreau doesn’t even have a next contract.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Gaudreau will be 36 (7 year deal) or 37 (8 year deal) when this current contract expires.

He needs to look at this as his retirement contract.

I can’t think of many players signing for $5M+ at age 36 or older in recent history.

Exactly. If its about money - it should be about maximizing his total contract value this year. Look at guys like Parise who is now getting paid the minimum to stay in the league after his giant contract. Expecting to get good money after this contract is foolish.

[Heavy Jack]

To me it still comes down to how much Johnny values winning because based on all the supposed teams that are interested in him the Flames are the most competitive team of the bunch and the closest to contending of the bunch if he stays. I’m hoping he values this more than all the other variables that are being considered by him/his family. On top of all that the chance to be bigger to a team/city than a player like Iginla is a pretty incredible opportunity that shouldn’t be taken lightly either. I hope this ultimately helps him make the decision to stay in Calgary.

[FBI]

Give me some fricken GOOD NEWS already!

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Gaudreau will be 36 (7 year deal) or 37 (8 year deal) when this current contract expires.

He needs to look at this as his retirement contract.

I can’t think of many players signing for $5M+ at age 36 or older in recent history.

Ovechkin, Letang, and Pavelski are the only 35+ contracts in the entire NHL over $5M this season. There are only 17 players on 35+ contracts in the entire league.

It’s likely that the league gets even younger over the next 8 years too and Gaudreau doesn’t even have a next contract.

Malkin turns 36 this month and he will get that much. I think you need to look at a smaller group subset of elite forwards and see what their 35+ contracts look like. Gaudreau has less tread on him too.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by FBI

Give me some fricken GOOD NEWS already!

Lol right… I just want to see the Johnny Gaudreau extends thread already and start looking at the rest of the roster and what needs to happen. PLEASE!!!

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I have no doubt that there are people who will complain and blame the Flames for ruining Sean Monahan, because some people here live in a fantasy world in which every variable is both predictable and controllable.

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No need to say people's views are "idiotic" or represent a "fantasy world".

The contract was great, but there have been suggestions in the past based on end of season exit interviews that the Flames chose to keep letting him play for extended periods when he was in bad shape and playing through terrible pain for months rather than making him sit and get it sorted. Bodies breaking down or failing to heal when playing injured kind of is predictable, and at least is controllable wrt attempting early treatment or not. It's not insane to have a discussion around whether or not the Flames were making choices to prioritize the long-term health and future contributions of the player or the immediate contributions of the player.

[Vinny01]

People seem to be thinking it will be Calgary or Philly. Obviously if it is Philly it is purely a move to get back home. It is crazy though that Philly has absolutely no cap space so they would need multiple moves to get the space to fit Johnny in. Would Johnny go to Seattle because they offer him the most money? Can’t see it.

Philly is a trash team and would have to move out good players to add Johnny. He would have to want to be at home and not care about winning any time soon to go there. If he stays in Calgary he is comfortable, gets all the money, and has a chance to win.

[c.t.ner]

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/ins...-evgeni-malkin

"My hope is that we're going to get something done before it gets to that," Treliving said. "If I didn't think that it was possible, then we'd probably have turned our attention somewhere else. That's not to say that it's a slam dunk. But when you think that there's a deal there to get done, you keep working at it."

Immediately, there were those around the NHL who thought the comments could be face-saving -- one of those "we made our best effort" type of situations before Gaudreau leaves. But a few sources also felt that Gaudreau might not be finding the megadeals with the teams with which he'd hope to find them in free agency.

If Gaudreau was looking for a South Jersey homecoming with the Philadelphia Flyers, for example, the $5 million they just spent on Tony DeAngelo doesn't exactly get them close to that.

(If he was looking for something in the Garden State a bit north of that, the Devils currently have over $25 million in cap room ... if they're interested.)

There was some speculation at the draft that the Seattle Kraken could be interested in Gaudreau to pair with Matty Beniers or Shane Wright at center. But how far away is Seattle from contention, and how long would Gaudreau be willing to wait? Furthermore, is that kind of splash in sync with the Kraken's plan for a slower build?

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Just a look back on the approach of an already cup-winning generational talent that put team first and went on to win two more cups and cement a hall of fame legacy.

Sidney Crosby signs 12-year, $104.4M US extension








In the end, if Johnny either just wants to be close to home or just wants a big payout, I'll be disappointed. He's entitled to have his own priorities and I wouldn't hold that against him, but either way it would indicate his priorities aren't really aligned with the team, so it's not a fit.

Not a good comparable, IMO. Sid had already won a cup and therefore the loyalty to that organization was warranted to help improve their chances through taking a reduced AAV. He also does well through endorsements to more than offset.

Johnny is heading into his last lucrative contract, hasn't won anything, and is coming off a deal where he was underpaid vs. market.