Apparently Trump's VP is going to be Newt. Horrifying choice when it comes to winning, spectacular choice when it comes to make this #### circus even more ridiculous.
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Quite frankly Newt's recent comments on race relations in the US have been some of the most impressive. When a person of Newt's stature and prior position/background comes out and says that White America does not have the same experience as Black America, there is hope.
Objectively I think he's one of Trump's better options (which does not say much).
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Bernie will apparently finally endorse Hillary today. I actually think he did better than I thought as far as getting some concessions to the Dem platform. I thought he overplayed his hand in this case, but maybe he really did actually push Hillary to left instead of her doing this for political convenience. I don't see much of a bump here though, his supporters actually came to her faster than her supporters did for Obama, which should underscore this race wasn't that bad and that 2008 race is undersold on how testy and harsh it was.
It could also be that the Republican alternative in this election provides left leaning supporters nightmares. In 2008 in may only have been heartburn.
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There’s no way to sugar-coat this: I’m mad as hell — and I know you are, too.
Moments ago, the Republican Party passed the most anti-LGBT Platform in the Party’s 162-year history.
Opposition to marriage equality, nonsense about bathrooms, an endorsement of the debunked psychological practice of “pray the gay away” — it’s all in there.
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Just watched the Democrats retake on the old 'I've always been a republican but'...' Ad that was so devastatingly effective against Goldwater in 64.
Still a great ad.
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Just watched the Democrats retake on the old 'I've always been a republican but'...' Ad that was so devastatingly effective against Goldwater in 64.
Still a great ad.
"If you unite behind a man you don't believe in, it's a lie."
Just watched the Democrats retake on the old 'I've always been a republican but'...' Ad that was so devastatingly effective against Goldwater in 64.
Still a great ad.
NBC has her up 9 in Penn, 3 in Iowa
Gravis up 2 in Iowa
Marquette up 4 in Wisconsin
Fox up 10 in Colorado 7 in Virginia
Monmouth up 13 in Colorado
Reuters has her up 13 nationally.
Quinnipiac seems to be an outlier. Having Trump up in Florida makes zero sense due to demographics and the fact that every other poll has Hillary up there.
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NBC has her up 9 in Penn, 3 in Iowa
Gravis up 2 in Iowa
Marquette up 4 in Wisconsin
Fox up 10 in Colorado 7 in Virginia
Monmouth up 13 in Colorado
Reuters has her up 13 nationally.
Quinnipiac seems to be an outlier. Having Trump up in Florida makes zero sense due to demographics and the fact that every other poll has Hillary up there.
538 has her odds decreased by 6 points just from yesterday to today with the new polls out (77% to 71%). At the same time, given the email verdict, you'd expect her to lose a bit of ground right now anyway. Blip, or beginning of a slide? VP picks and conventions are going to dominate the next couple weeks of the news cycle which will probably create a lot of noise in the polls.
Quinnipiac has been garbage for polling and should not be remotely trusted.
Why do you say that?
538 has them as quite accurate using large sample sizes and good methodology though with a 4 point republican bias. So they can be trusted as they tend to be repeatable if you acknowledge the bias.
Quinnipiac has been garbage for polling and should not be remotely trusted.
Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.
Reminder that polling is irrelevant this far out. After the debates is pretty much the only window that really matters, and right now we still have 3 goddamn months to go before the debates. Narratives need to be upheld or what is the media going to talk about for months? What these polling numbers show is there's basically 1 in 5 people's votes who are still out there to be had, as Trump and Clinton's combined numbers are barely getting past 80% in most polls. So this election probably has more undecideds in play than normal. Third party support is likely to collapse as we get closer to the election as well as while there is I'm sure some real third party support, it's primarily based out of hatred of the two candidates. I'm guessing in the end most of those people hate one of the two more than the other, so they'll come back to supporting the one they hate the least. There's also the whole it's a lot easier to say you'll vote Trump than when you actually have to do it. We've all seen voter apprehension win out in many elections (like say Alberta 2012...).
And we also will see Trump's numbers fall next week after what appears will be the most embarrassing national convention in history. Trainwreck TV at it's finest.
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A night highlighting the tragedy in Benghazi, Libya. An appearance by onetime football star Tim Tebow. A presentation detailing former President Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct.
Donald J. Trump, the presumptive nominee, has been promising a different kind of Republican National Convention, and plans obtained by The New York Times show that he is eager to put his showbiz stamp on the party’s gathering, even as he struggles to attract A-list talent.
The roster of speakers obtained by The Times, and confirmed by two people with direct knowledge of the convention planning, reveals a lineup lacking many of the party’s rising stars. Instead, it features some of Mr. Trump’s eclectic collection of friends, celebrities and relatives, from his Slovenian supermodel wife to professional golfer Natalie Gulbis.
Quote:
The list, which is subject to change, as obtained by The New York Times:
Night 1: A Benghazi focus, followed by border patrol agents and Mr. Shaw, whose son was killed by an undocumented immigrant. Senator Cotton, Mr. Giuliani, Melania Trump, Ms. Ernst and others.
Night 2: A focus on the economy: Mr. White, president of the U.F.C.; Asa Hutchinson, the governor of Arkansas; Michael Mukasey, the former United States attorney general; Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a vice-presidential possibility; Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader; Tiffany Trump; Donald Trump Jr. and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
Night 3: Ms. Bondi; Ms. Collins; Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas; Eric Trump; Ms. Gulbis; and the nominee for vice president.
Night 4: Mr. Tebow; Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee; Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman; Gov. Rick Scott of Florida; Mr. Thiel; Mr. Barrack; Ivanka Trump; Donald J. Trump.
I'm actually not surprised to see Clinton's numbers fall after a week dominated by the email scandal. Of note, however, is that voters do NOT seem to be flocking to Trump. Instead, she has dropped down to his low-40s threshold.
This is turning into a very strange election--I think many voters would very much rather have someone other than the main two candidates.
Night 2: A focus on the economy: Mr. White, president of the U.F.C.; Asa Hutchinson, the governor of Arkansas; Michael Mukasey, the former United States attorney general; Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a vice-presidential possibility; Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader; Tiffany Trump; Donald Trump Jr. and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
Night 3: Ms. Bondi; Ms. Collins; Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas; Eric Trump; Ms. Gulbis; and the nominee for vice president.
Is that Dana White, and please please don't tell me this is Natalie Gulbis, don't take away this fantasy from me.
