Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[peter12]

Originally Posted by heep223

This chart is pretty scary.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by peter12

This chart is pretty scary.

In what way?

[Fuzz]

Basically it looks like if production drops with the rig counts, they lose 3mmbpd. Sounds good to me!
EDIT because I read the chart wrong. dummy.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by heep223

In what way?

It looks like they have been able to scale even with a massive decrease in rig count.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...idge-1.3419910

Charge these morons. They admit to criminal activities on their website. Throw them all in jail, this kind of thing is super dangerous.

Exactly, the potential for blowing up a pipeline by closing the flow path is real especially if they disabled electronic monitoring.

[heep223]

Wow the depression is strong here. I guess to be expected.

With OPEC operating at full capacity (first time ever I believe), the US is the new swing producer. The market hasn't priced this in yet as US production will soon drop off a cliff. Could drop more than 1M, and Canadian supply is going to drop, and Russian supply is going to drop, and Chinese supply is going to drop. That will rebalance the market through 2016. Price will go back to equilibrium levels, which are debatable, but certainly at least $45-$50.

Then if something, anything happens with OPEC production, price is going to spike through the roof.

I know it's tough to see right now but things are going to get better.

Originally Posted by peter12

It looks like they have been able to scale even with a massive decrease in rig count.

No, there's a lag between production and drilling activity. There's nothing to replace the huge declines, and production will follow activity like a magnet as per the historical chart.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Check out the possibly NSFW photo on the news story...
http://earthfirstjournal.org/newswir...tampered-with/
That's a real nice thing you did with your kid there.

I wonder why these clowns don't draw more fire from the pundits who skewer religious fundamentalists. Because that's essentially what they are. I suppose the belief is that they may be misguided, irrational morons, but they're our misguided, irrational morons. Left-right partisanship trumps reason vs dogma.

[Tron_fdc]

I would start by taxing the hell out of companies based outside of Ab that do business here. The last 10 years I have seen companies bidding on government tenders that are based in BC, Sk, Mb, and even the USA. I'm no accountant but I'm assuming there's a tax advantage there? I'm also assuming there are O&G companies based out of province working here?

I see it all the time in the construction (roadbuilding) industry; Ab companies that go into BC for any kind of roadbuilding get HAMMERED with taxes (BC has some type of equipment movement tax that is seriously punitive), so most don't even bother bidding. To the best of my knowledge Ab does not do this.

Our largest customer the last 5 years was the same company that twinned the road from Banff to Lake Louise, and they're based in Penticton. That would never happen in BC.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by heep223

Wow the depression is strong here. I guess to be expected.

With OPEC operating at full capacity (first time ever I believe), the US is the new swing producer. The market hasn't priced this in yet as US production will soon drop off a cliff. Could drop more than 1M, and Canadian supply is going to drop, and Russian supply is going to drop, and Chinese supply is going to drop. That will rebalance the market through 2016. Price will go back to equilibrium levels, which are debatable, but certainly at least $45-$50.

Then if something, anything happens with OPEC production, price is going to spike through the roof.

I know it's tough to see right now but things are going to get better.



No, there's a lag between production and drilling activity. There's nothing to replace the huge declines, and production will follow activity like a magnet as per the historical chart.

I think the massive amounts of oil in storage are going to temper us from any large rapid swings in price, even if something catastrophic happens in the ME.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by heep223

Wow the depression is strong here. I guess to be expected.

With OPEC operating at full capacity (first time ever I believe), the US is the new swing producer. The market hasn't priced this in yet as US production will soon drop off a cliff. Could drop more than 1M, and Canadian supply is going to drop, and Russian supply is going to drop, and Chinese supply is going to drop. That will rebalance the market through 2016. Price will go back to equilibrium levels, which are debatable, but certainly at least $45-$50.

Then if something, anything happens with OPEC production, price is going to spike through the roof.

I know it's tough to see right now but things are going to get better.



No, there's a lag between production and drilling activity. There's nothing to replace the huge declines, and production will follow activity like a magnet as per the historical chart.

At least part of the "depression" is that people are hearing from their employers that they're preparing for years of pricing at these levels. So even when you present a case for growth in prices due to declining production despite increased demand, its completely the contrarian position at this point.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by woob

First, I will admit I voted NDP, so I accept responsibility for my actions.

Second, I agree the NDP should be doing more than what they are from an energy standpoint.

What I would like to know is why aren't we seeing more from the Liberal's at the Federal level regarding pushing pipeline progress? I heard the on the CBC this morning that Trudeau was quoted saying something along the lines of saying it's not up to him to convince Canadians on Energy East, it on TransCanada to do so. Surely the Liberal's must see that's good for ALL of Canada to get more Canadian oil out into the global markets?

Trudeau knows that if he comes out on the side of the Pipelines and Alberta that he'll piss off his voting base in Ontario and Quebec, he'll also piss off the deep red liberals in his party.

What really pisses me off is that Brad Wall seems to be fighting our battles for us, Notley mumbles from the Pembina Institute guideline. Brad Walls basically stands up and says this is ridiculous, you people are hypocrites and morons, do you know what this means to everyone, clearly not.

Trudeau made it pretty clear when he said that he doesn't want this country known for its resources but its resourcefulness, whatever in the hell that means. But it goes to the message that everything can run on good intentions, which is simply not true. To have a great country where everyone has a good standard of living you have to have a vibrant economy, and some of it might be considered by some to be, and its the wrong choice of words, unsavory.

But the fact is that economically this country won't survive economically without resource exploitation.

Our people make too much and our costs for materials and transportation is too high to compete in the manufacturing sector. We're too small and not ruthless enough to compete in the high tech sectors to the point of driving a nation economy. Our wages are so high that we're losing mundane jobs to outsourcing due to businesses seeing a better return on investment through outsourcing.

We can compete agriculturally, but Canada can't survive purely on a agrarian economy.

The bottom line is its not going to effect all that much this year, but over the next few years, things like Transfer payments and equalization are going to reduce, Alberta isn't going to have the revenue base or the tax base that it did when it was the engine of the economy, and by denying pipeline access Quebec and the other provinces are going to cut their own throats.

At the same time, you can't have a government that is going to write a check to a failing company like Bombardier who's primary revenue stream is government bailouts, and then look at an entire industry that's getting hammered and say, we'll here's the billion in infrastructure spending that we promised you, but we don't have plans to help out your industry, but we'll bail out auto and companies that have direct lines to the Liberal Party (Chretien and Bombardier)

At the same time, we have a weak and flustered premier and government who are clearly not in love with the golden goose here and so their support is half hearted, and when the chips are down and people are being tossed out of work they jack up taxes, add a carbon tax, put in policies to basically wreck small and medium businesses in the service and labor sector.

And with the Carbon tax, they implemented it as a general tax not as some environmentally sound encouragement platform, but as what is basically going to be a ponzi scheme, on the vague soul crushing premise that, now that we're doing our progressive thing environmentally, Quebec and Ontario and BC will become supporters in our ability to save this provinces and thus Canada's economy. But then and who couldn't see this coming? She got stabbed in the back and looked even more foolish.

At this point we have multiple things that need to happen.

Trudeua needs to stand up and say that this economic slide in Alberta is an emergency that effects the entire country, so STFU and lets find a way to get these pipelines done, quick fast and in a hurry. Need to complete the environmental assessment, I'll bring in more people to do this, and limit the consultations so that the wack jobs funded by Tides and other groups aren't invited in to throw shoes into the process.

Notley and Wall need to work together to create a strong and united front, period, I know that he's a flintstones loving Fiscal Conservative, but he can do what you can't Rachel, and that's stand up and make your discomfort known.

Trudeau needs to put together a package to assist the Oil sector in this province, and if that means, no more purchasing out of country oil and gas and energy then that's the way its got to be. Break Nafta? Tough Titties said the Kitty to the States you did it first when you screwed us to make Darryl Haanah and Kenye West happy.

If you want to diversify the economy and implement green energy strategies, then great, do it, but you can't do it without a strong economy in place to pay for generational changes.

This is my Rant, this is my Song

S-A-T-U-R - T- U- R - Night

[Knalus]

Originally Posted by heep223

Looking at this chart, those pipeline activists sure seem impotent in reducing oil production in North America. Looks like the best way to avoid all that dirty oil and pipelines is to flood the market... with dirty oil from tankers.

[CaptainCrunch]

Pretty Wishy Washy to me

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/1/26/Tru...y-debate-.aspx

Unlike the Conservatives, who acted as a “cheerleader” on such projects, the Liberals intend to see that all aspects of energy proposals are carefully examined with the interests of all concerned, including First Nations communities, Mr. Trudeau said Tuesday after meeting with Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre, who has voiced strong opposition to Calgary-based TransCanada Corp.’s Energy East pipeline.
“Canadians know you can’t build a strong economy without protecting the environment,” Mr. Trudeau said, adding that his government plans to strengthen existing environmental assessment processes.
“The federal government’s role is to put in place a process through which TransCanada or any other company might proceed to demonstrate that a project is in the public interest and get Canadians’ approval.”

The federal government intends to require a separate climate test for proposed pipelines and a planned LNG export terminal, which are now under regulatory review, to determine their impact on Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, possibly resulting in new delays on major projects.

In other words, we're going to float these things in committee until they die, because we need to re-invent the process that's already pretty strident.

[Looch City]

Let's play a game...which one will get built first?

1) Keystone XL
2) Energy East
3) Trans Mountain
4) CalgaryNext

[Knut]

Originally Posted by iggy city

let's play a game...which one will get built first?

1) keystone xl
2) energy east
3) trans mountain
4) calgarynext
5) space elevator

fyp

[Fuzz]

Trans Mountain seams closest..
Then Energy East
Then KeystoneXL
Then Space Elevator
Then CalgaryNext

[T-Dog]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...idge-1.3419910

Charge these morons. They admit to criminal activities on their website. Throw them all in jail, this kind of thing is super dangerous.

Seriously, these criminal actions should be reported to the police. They claim to have shut down a pipeline in Ontario - would that be the OPP who has jurisdiction?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle24952789/



What does it mean by prevent?

If you tax something at like 600% you are technically not preventing it from being sold in another province. You can still buy it, just at a higher cost.

Tell that to Joe Ceci, who just discovered his brilliant "tax beer from any province but BC, AB and SK" plan was squashed by the courts as likely unconstitutional.

[CaptainCrunch]

It was a stupid plan because he ended up taxing breweries that were based in Alberta but making Quebec beer.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Pretty Wishy Washy to me

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/1/26/Tru...y-debate-.aspx



In other words, we're going to float these things in committee until they die, because we need to re-invent the process that's already pretty strident.

I love this new approach - and I have Harper to thank for my new love of this approach.

Harper's hard line approach failed us. He help create an "us vs them" mentality across this country; which is now playing out in Quebec right now with Energy East.

Will Mr Good Hair's approach of bringing stakeholders to the table work any better? I honestly don't know, but, lets give the guy a chance and see where we stand in 6 months instead of just calling him whishy washy. I know many people in AB love to see someone they disagree with fail, but his failure is bad for us in the end.

I personally think pipeline companies do a great deal of public consultation along with the NEB approvals, but, if bringing more people to the table (including environmentalists) helps us get media on our side, like Rick Mercer, it will be worthwhile. Also, just maybe, people will actually learn the real economics of our country through this process.